Live data from Hacker News

Why Does DARPA Work?

benjaminreinhardt.com

11–20 of 98 posts

Re: Why Does DARPA Work?

#11
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, after being promoted to the head of the division with several people speculating that they were being groomed for even higher posts. And it took a scandal to get rid of them. Person should never had been a PM in the first place. You never hear people say "it's proof that Congress works because they ejected that pedophile (sending lewd messages to the pages) from their seat".

Hate to break it to you, but "an incompetent person rising through the ranks quickly before crashing and burning" is something that happens in pretty literally every large org. Any 60 year old organization with a large budget is going to have multiple instances of this happening.

Perhaps I have a flair for the dramatic, but consider my statement that I haven't met a competent pm in the division I was in (n~5). The incentives are not that well-aligned. Think about it this way. If you're really smart, why do you become a DARPA PM, and not a PI?

Yes there are a few good reasons, but the population it applies to have largely been selected out by the postdoc phase (where I would say you have had sufficient experience with crushing scientific and engineering failure onself and watching others to be effective) and the pool of candidates therefore is vanishing.

Re: Why Does DARPA Work?

#12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hate to break it to you, but "an incompetent person rising through the ranks quickly before crashing and burning" is something that happens in pretty literally every large org. Any 60 year old organization with a large budget is going to have multiple instances of this happening.

Perhaps I have a flair for the dramatic, but consider my statement that I haven't met a competent pm in the division I was in (n~5). The incentives are not that well-aligned. Think about it this way. If you're really smart, why do you become a DARPA PM, and not a PI? Yes there are a few good reasons, but the population it applies to have largely been selected out by the postdoc phase (where I would say you have had s…

> If you're really smart, why do you become a DARPA PM, and not a PI?

Reasons are myriad.

100% of the PMs I've worked with had tenure and successful labs prior to becoming PMs, and went back to their institution & restarted their labs after leaving DARPA. The reason for leaving your lab to be PM is fairly obvious: controlling the funding gives you a lot of leverage for shaping the priorities of the field, in a way that merely running your own lab doesn't.

Maybe your division sucked. I've only ever worked with highly competent PMs, and all of the programs I've worked on ended in commercialization.

Anyways, prosecuting individual cases doesn't seem like a particularly good way of evaluating the effectiveness of an agency.

Re: Why Does DARPA Work?

#13
post #2

I'd like to write a comment but I generally prefer to have read the entire article before I do... see you in a week or so. Jokes aside, I agree with the author (I think) that DARPA has been a surprisingly effective org in an age of frequent failures of other orgs with similarly lofty goals. DARPA is effectively what things like the SoftBank Vision Fund should've been (wanted to be?). It would certainly be interesting…

[deleted]

Re: Why Does DARPA Work?

#14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps I have a flair for the dramatic, but consider my statement that I haven't met a competent pm in the division I was in (n~5). The incentives are not that well-aligned. Think about it this way. If you're really smart, why do you become a DARPA PM, and not a PI? Yes there are a few good reasons, but the population it applies to have largely been selected out by the postdoc phase (where I would say you have had s…

> If you're really smart, why do you become a DARPA PM, and not a PI? Reasons are myriad. 100% of the PMs I've worked with had tenure and successful labs prior to becoming PMs, and went back to their institution & restarted their labs after leaving DARPA. The reason for leaving your lab to be PM is fairly obvious: controlling the funding gives you a lot of leverage for shaping the priorities of the field, in a way th…

Well, it's pretty obvious that DARPA has different standards in different divisions (division I was in was relatively new), then. Which still makes me wonder wtf they are anymore.

Re: Why Does DARPA Work?

#15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you're really smart, why do you become a DARPA PM, and not a PI? Reasons are myriad. 100% of the PMs I've worked with had tenure and successful labs prior to becoming PMs, and went back to their institution & restarted their labs after leaving DARPA. The reason for leaving your lab to be PM is fairly obvious: controlling the funding gives you a lot of leverage for shaping the priorities of the field, in a way th…

Well, it's pretty obvious that DARPA has different standards in different divisions (division I was in was relatively new), then. Which still makes me wonder wtf they are anymore.

> division I was in was relatively new

That makes sense.

Re: Why Does DARPA Work?

#16
post #2

I'd like to write a comment but I generally prefer to have read the entire article before I do... see you in a week or so. Jokes aside, I agree with the author (I think) that DARPA has been a surprisingly effective org in an age of frequent failures of other orgs with similarly lofty goals. DARPA is effectively what things like the SoftBank Vision Fund should've been (wanted to be?). It would certainly be interesting…

Vision Fund is there to throw huge amounts of money at a business in order to ramp it up quickly and capture large, global markets.

Think Uber: disrupting the Taxi business (or just regulations ...). Once something like Uber starts to work, a 'Vision Fund' takes this fledgling thing and backs it with billions to conquer the world.

It's not about moon-shots, it's about market power and speed on a global scale.

Like hyper-supercharged 'Round C or D' - instead of doing an initial public offering for cash, you take on massive cash from Vision.

Wether or not it will work is something else, but there's logic there.

Re: Why Does DARPA Work?

#17
IMO this analysis gets caught up looking for answers in process when the real problem that DARPA solves is a political-economic one.

ATT didn't invent the internet not for lack of process, they were extremely innovative. They held back on innovations because they were making huge sums of money overcharging long distance mainframe-mainframe data link rates in the 50's-70's. DARPA succeeded as a trust buster.

They have the resources and legality to make whatever they want, regardless of patents (because National Security/patent law). They can make technology a reality, then develop political support with working prototypes. They build things to show how the Government is getting screwed over by some giant defense corp, because of a lack of competition in certain types of contracts.

I think they are becoming less relevant because the corporate-political landscape is becoming more trust-based.

Re: Why Does DARPA Work?

#18
A bill, the Endless Frontiers Act, has been introduced in both houses of Congress to make a section of the National Science Foundation that works more like DARPA, while massively increasing its funding. The idea is to extend the DARPA model to many more non-military areas, just as suggested in this article.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/us-lawmakers-unveil-...

Certainly a timely article. I don't know whether it's a good thing or not. The DARPA model has certainly been productive, but it isn't suited for every research topic or subdiscipline.

As discussed in the article, currently NSF is the most open to basic science of funding agencies, and gives grantees the most latitude in what they work on. That is a valuable thing to have in the ecosystem.

If Congress expects the majority of publicly-funded research even from the NSF to be on short-term grants for specific visions and technologies, it will rule out working on a lot of important things.

Re: Why Does DARPA Work?

#19
post #18

A bill, the Endless Frontiers Act, has been introduced in both houses of Congress to make a section of the National Science Foundation that works more like DARPA, while massively increasing its funding. The idea is to extend the DARPA model to many more non-military areas, just as suggested in this article. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/us-lawmakers-unveil-... Certainly a timely article. I don't know whethe…

There is also already ARPA-E, which is a similar mandate to DARPA (i.e., risky projects with high payoff) for energy technology. How effective it has been thus far is a matter of debate due to a variety of factors, but I like the basic idea.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ARPA-E

Re: Why Does DARPA Work?

#20
Small anecdote, but good experience with DARPA and SBIR both. One thing I liked - they seemed pretty low overhead / low hassle and outcome / objective focused.

That contrasts VERY strong with most govt contracting which is under allowable cost or cost reimbursement setups where the absolute most important criteria is to bill enough costs to draw contract in the right cost buckets (which can be super annoying if local agencies require super complicated budget mod processes).

In the cost based contracts, the focus really focuses on the accounting for the costs and other compliance related items. Ie, did you send someone to a conference with govt money, how can you prove you didn't use the govt money in this way or that way etc etc. Bam, welcome to personal activity reports with fund codes that no one understands (ie, major universities have an insane number of codes), and all the nightmares that follow including a fair bit of rule pending that even normally ethical folks find themselves being asked to to get through the paperwork.

Seriously, you deliver the product at 50% of cost? You will get a nasty note from the head of your agency saying make sure you draw full contract because agency budget depends on the indirect portion of this award (ie, 30% to overhead) and even the govt agency supervising (who also budgeted based on a cut of full contract) AND other folks for whom leftover money makes life difficult (harder to close contract etc) AND because a lot of govt funding is on the repeat what we did last year model so drawing down everything avoids a cut next year when you may really need it.

You determine it would be cheaper to do x vs y and that required a budget mod? Wait 1-2 months for commission approval if you even bother trying to fight it through (changes I don't know how the accounting for SBIRs etc work, but somehow those projects always seemed more results oriented (so a LOT more fun to work on, focus is on getting a solution going).

Post reply on HN