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Solar storm risk and EMP attacks

chris-said.io

11–20 of 69 posts

Re: Solar storm risk and EMP attacks

#12
post #9

"Could Solar Storms Destroy Civilization? Solar Flares & Coronal Mass Ejections" by Kurzgesagt: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHHSSJDJ4oo

tldr: Nope.

I think the answer is not "nope" but "probably nope". That video is perhaps overconfident in our ability to detect these storms.

From the article:

> One-third of major storms arrive unexpectedly, according to the SWPC’s own 2010 analysis. And that’s not just the small storms. According to a news article in Science, the SWPC might be also be poor at identifying the characteristics of severe storms, since they are so rare.

Re: Solar storm risk and EMP attacks

#13
post #6

> EMP attacks... For an EMP attack to be effective on modern electronics, you need to blow up a multimegaton nuclear bomb close enough for it to take out whomever is using that piece of electronics...

Source? I don't think the MOV in your power strip, or the typical ESD protections are going to save you.

There are also conventional EMPs to worry about.

Also, you could probably just take out key points with carbon dust bombs like we did in Iraq War #1.

Re: Solar storm risk and EMP attacks

#15

  The chances of an EMP attack
  Q: I’ve heard a lot from you about how dangerous an EMP attack could be. But how likely is it that anyone will actually try to attack us with an EMP?
  A: Unlike the EMP Commission, most national security experts view EMP attacks as a second rate threat. While perhaps some small terrorist groups or rogue nations might launch a localized EMP attack that might take out a substation or two, it’s unlikely that any country capable of launching a major EMP attack would actually do so.
  Q: Why not?
  A: Because to launch a major EMP attack, a country would need a large nuclear weapon. And if a country was planning on using a large nuclear weapon, it would make more sense — in the morbid logic of war — to conventionally drop it on a city than to launch an EMP attack which would at most cause some brief power disruptions in a few states. As physicist Yousaf Butt put it, “A weapon of mass destruction is preferable to a weapon of mass disruption”.
This is very wrong and just tells me we should be even more cautious due to it being a blind side. The defense industry has for over a decade had highly deployable, targetable, non-nuclear EMP. (ex1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lh1rgy25XhU) If there is one thing I know, it's that the tools we develop for war in other places tend to end up being used back at home. So I would also disagree with the casual dismissal of the likelihood of use domestically. Further, part of the entire reasoning in natsec circles for the increasingly egregious violations of the constitution is because of the increase in ability for non nation-state actors to be able to perform in new types of asymmetric attacks, and I would say non-nuclear EMP would be just one in that list.

The good news: I think most of these problems are solvable, and will assist us in being more ready to explore the extreme parts of our world and beyond. Making tempest and EMP shielding default in electronics manufacturing for example. It would also assist in reduction of the totalitarian surveillance regime... so I say lets all start talking about how to do shielding properly. There is a lot of misinformation out there about it. I do wonder though, how much of that misinformation is on purpose. Like encryption, at what point does the government decide to suppress a technology because it might hinder their power? Things to ponder.

Re: Solar storm risk and EMP attacks

#16
I was a bit surprised by this exchange:

Q: Should I be more worried about EMP Attacks or solar storms?

A: Opinions differ. But the EMP Commission is more worried about EMP attacks.

Q: Why?

Here's where I expected the answer to be:

A: Because it's the EMP Commission. It's right there in the name. The Solar Storm Commission is down the hall on the right.

(I personally imagine it in the voice of John Cleese)

Re: Solar storm risk and EMP attacks

#17
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This would be a great starting point for the repo. The goal would be to have this layman-level knowledge like this and then flesh out the extreme technical details by crowdsourcing verified experts. I'm especially interested in how to organize traumatized people in a productive way, since that will likely be one of the biggest hurdles to overcome.

Like a wikipedia, but condensed, useful, and navigable. Preferably able to store offline / locally or decentralized. Would have to identify what basis is necessary for rebuild and what is luxury. A large majority of things today are simply luxury. I love the idea of it though and would def try and contribute somehow even though my skill and knowledge base isnt comparable to others.

Plenty of projects like that. Here's one: https://github.com/ligi/SurvivalManual

Re: Solar storm risk and EMP attacks

#18
post #2

This reminds me, I've been toying with the idea of starting a github repository for survival and rebuilding society if a major SHTF scenario occurred. It would be crowdsourced and bake-able into an ebook for offline reading. Anybody interested in it as a "Show HN" post?

A project in a similar vein https://blog.longnow.org/02014/02/06/manual-for-civilization...

Re: Solar storm risk and EMP attacks

#19
post #6

> EMP attacks... For an EMP attack to be effective on modern electronics, you need to blow up a multimegaton nuclear bomb close enough for it to take out whomever is using that piece of electronics...

Pretty much, but there's no point explaining it to people. Not believing in nuclear weapons destroying everything with god like power is right wing.

It doesn't even make sense, EMP's are nukes, someone just stared nuking you and you're worried about the EMP.

Re: Solar storm risk and EMP attacks

#20
post #6

> EMP attacks... For an EMP attack to be effective on modern electronics, you need to blow up a multimegaton nuclear bomb close enough for it to take out whomever is using that piece of electronics...

Pretty much, but there's no point explaining it to people. Not believing in nuclear weapons destroying everything with god like power is right wing. It doesn't even make sense, EMP's are nukes, someone just stared nuking you and you're worried about the EMP.

>It doesn't even make sense,

It starts to make sense once you know how nuclear EMP attack works. The detonation would happen high in the space (400 km) and would not cause direct effects or radiation on the earth.

EMP pulse in a continent wide nuclear EMP attack is not coming from the nuclear detonation directly. It comes from synchrotron radiation when free electrons in upper atmosphere interact with earths magnetic field

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