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Indie.vc: Unicorns Are Out, Profits Are In

marker.medium.com

11–20 of 116 posts

Re: Indie.vc: Unicorns Are Out, Profits Are In

#11

@Indie.vc ... you spent a ton of time writing this post only to have it paywalled by medium. I can't read it... Ditch medium as they aren't compatible with your business model :-P

It's not paywalled. You can read it with a free account.

There is no such thing as a free account, just like there is no such thing as a free lunch

Re: Indie.vc: Unicorns Are Out, Profits Are In

#12

@Indie.vc ... you spent a ton of time writing this post only to have it paywalled by medium. I can't read it... Ditch medium as they aren't compatible with your business model :-P

It's not paywalled. You can read it with a free account.

That's a paid account. It's just paid with Metadata rather than dollars.

Re: Indie.vc: Unicorns Are Out, Profits Are In

#13
What I take away from this is that soon it may make sense to invest in unicorns! Initially investing in money losing companies was a contrarian investment strategy. Then everyone piled in, making it an even better investment strategy as assets became overpriced. Think Uber. And authentic opportunities became scarce, think Zume.

The Indie.vc model is contrarian and probably doing well. It will continue to do well as it becomes imitated. And then the cycle will repeat. So keep your eye on unpopular unicorns!

Re: Indie.vc: Unicorns Are Out, Profits Are In

#15
In short: this author is endorsing a funding model focused on low initial investment and faster profitability. The benefits key benefits are that this funding model results in more women and minorities getting funding, as well as higher rate of companies surviving (10% vs. 44% [1]). The former is good, but probably isn't sufficient to motivate most investors. The latter doesn't necessarily translate into better returns on investment. Throughout this whole piece I was looking for a comparison on the net return on investment of the traditional VC model and this Indie.vc model. This comparison is never done. A high-risk high-reward investment model may still produce higher rates of returns than a low-risk low-return model.

Right now we're seeing a trend of larger companies taking an ever larger piece of the market share, and the total number of firms decreasing. While encouraging founders to form smaller companies with shorter time to profitability undoubtedly results in more companies surviving 3, 5, and 7 years after founding, that's not what we're optimizing for. An investment strategy with high rates of failure, but producing larger companies with those few successes is still yields the potential for larger overall returns.

1. What does it mean by 10% vs. 44% of companies surviving? Presumably it means that 10% of traditionally funded companies exist X years after founding versus 44% of Indie.vc founded companies. But this is a strange metric to give without specifying how many years we're talking about.

Re: Indie.vc: Unicorns Are Out, Profits Are In

#16

So this is initial seed/angel venture capital without huge ROI expectations? Is that the idea? If so, how is it different from what VCs are doing now?

VC without huge ROI expectations doesn't work. Like the actual economics don't work. I don't really understand the point of any of this. VCs need massive outsized returns because 99% of the companies they invest in will return $0 to the fund. You need that one company that returns the entire fund (ex: $500m) + some percentage.

Also, from the article "And founders can even buy back the stakes (ranging between 10% and 15%) by hitting certain revenue targets"

10-15% interest on a crazy high-risk loan makes absolutely no sense to me whatsoever.

Re: Indie.vc: Unicorns Are Out, Profits Are In

#18

@Indie.vc ... you spent a ton of time writing this post only to have it paywalled by medium. I can't read it... Ditch medium as they aren't compatible with your business model :-P

Agreed the Medium paywall is not good. But technically, I don't think Indie.vc wrote this post. It's on the marker.medium.com publication and was written by a freelance journalist: https://marker.medium.com/@jennifer_7809

Re: Indie.vc: Unicorns Are Out, Profits Are In

#19

@Indie.vc ... you spent a ton of time writing this post only to have it paywalled by medium. I can't read it... Ditch medium as they aren't compatible with your business model :-P

It's not paywalled. You can read it with a free account.

"[redacted], get unlimited access. You've read all of your free stories this month. Become a member to keep reading."

Re: Indie.vc: Unicorns Are Out, Profits Are In

#20

So this is initial seed/angel venture capital without huge ROI expectations? Is that the idea? If so, how is it different from what VCs are doing now?

VC without huge ROI expectations doesn't work. Like the actual economics don't work. I don't really understand the point of any of this. VCs need massive outsized returns because 99% of the companies they invest in will return $0 to the fund. You need that one company that returns the entire fund (ex: $500m) + some percentage. Also, from the article "And founders can even buy back the stakes (ranging between 10% and…

How do you figure this won't work?

The article mentions the indie.vc "mortality rate" is 10% whereas for VC-backed ventures it's 44%. Granted, just because a company is alive doesn't mean it's making the investors much money.

I imagine having more companies around for longer would ultimately mean a lot of little payoffs that cover their own investments rather than one big payoff that covers every other investment.

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