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Covid-19 has a 0.05% fatality rate in people under 65 without comorbidities

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Re: Covid-19 has a 0.05% fatality rate in people under 65 without comorbidities

#11

Post by jtdaugh »

vannevar wrote: post #10

The mortality rate is not the only consideration. People don't want to die, sure, but they also don't want to spend a couple of weeks in the hospital. And that risk, even for those under 65, is much, much higher: at least 1 in 100 (Source: https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page ). Not only do individuals not want to spend time in the hospital, we as a society don't want them there either. Assuming we…

I can't find hospitalizations broken out by underlying illnesses, but if among each age bracket we assume the % of deaths associated with underlying illness holds as the % of hospitalizations associated with underlying illness, then we get a "healthy under 65" Hospitalization Rate of 0.3% to 0.5%.

Under 65:

7.4M people

1.55M infected

26,000 hospitalizations

4,548 "healthy" hospitalizations (16% of deaths under 65 have no comorbidities. Using same rate here).

800k-1.2M infected w/o comorbidities depending on "healthy rate"

4,548 / 1M = 0.45%

Re: Covid-19 has a 0.05% fatality rate in people under 65 without comorbidities

#12

Post by chinesempire »

rpiguy wrote: post #2

While I agree that the press is exaggerating the deadliness of the disease, this number is also misleading. As many will point out, the vast majority of US citizens have at least one comorbidity (obesity, diabetes, heart trouble, smoking, asthma, etc.) You have to go to the very young (under 25) to find a sizable population without a comorbidity. I think it is more useful to point out that mortality is skewed heavily…

> the vast majority of US citizens have at least one comorbidity (obesity, diabetes, heart trouble, smoking, asthma, etc.)

If that's true (and I don't think it is) that's a serious problem.

BTW smoking is not a comorbidity, it's an habit that could or could not develop a comorbity given enough time.

Re: Covid-19 has a 0.05% fatality rate in people under 65 without comorbidities

#13

Post by chinesempire »

LandR wrote: post #3
rpiguy wrote: post #2

While I agree that the press is exaggerating the deadliness of the disease, this number is also misleading. As many will point out, the vast majority of US citizens have at least one comorbidity (obesity, diabetes, heart trouble, smoking, asthma, etc.) You have to go to the very young (under 25) to find a sizable population without a comorbidity. I think it is more useful to point out that mortality is skewed heavily…

I agree, I think he is vastly underestimating the number of people who have comorbidities.

I think the only ones assuming here are those who assume that he underestimated the number of people with comorbidity.

I believe you are underestimating how bad US society is in regards to healthcare and how much they overestimate some condition (like blood pressure related hearth diseases) to avoid reimbursing insurance bills.

Re: Covid-19 has a 0.05% fatality rate in people under 65 without comorbidities

#14

Post by cramey »

chinesempire wrote: post #12
rpiguy wrote: post #2

While I agree that the press is exaggerating the deadliness of the disease, this number is also misleading. As many will point out, the vast majority of US citizens have at least one comorbidity (obesity, diabetes, heart trouble, smoking, asthma, etc.) You have to go to the very young (under 25) to find a sizable population without a comorbidity. I think it is more useful to point out that mortality is skewed heavily…

> the vast majority of US citizens have at least one comorbidity (obesity, diabetes, heart trouble, smoking, asthma, etc.) If that's true (and I don't think it is) that's a serious problem. BTW smoking is not a comorbidity, it's an habit that could or could not develop a comorbity given enough time.

All substance abuse, including smoking, is a comorbidity[1]. While it's hard to find exact statistics, the US Department of Health and Social Services estimates that 50% of non-elderly Americans have a pre-existing condition[2]. Those conditions don't necessarily represent a comorbidity, but a nasty systemic infection like Covid-19 leaves little space for non-overlap.

1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comorbidity

2: https://www.cms.gov/CCIIO/Resources/Forms-Reports-and-Other-...

Re: Covid-19 has a 0.05% fatality rate in people under 65 without comorbidities

#15

Post by jtdaugh »

Someone wrote: post #9
rpiguy wrote: post #2

While I agree that the press is exaggerating the deadliness of the disease, this number is also misleading. As many will point out, the vast majority of US citizens have at least one comorbidity (obesity, diabetes, heart trouble, smoking, asthma, etc.) You have to go to the very young (under 25) to find a sizable population without a comorbidity. I think it is more useful to point out that mortality is skewed heavily…

Also, 0.05% sounds like a tiny number, but is larger than mortality probability of all other causes in the USA for people in the 1-21 age bracket, still is half of it at age 33 and about a quarter of it at age 45 ( https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html ), and that’s even with those statistics including people with comorbidities. Looking at it another way, if the entire population were healthy, that’s 160.000 d…

Another way to look at it: ~700,000 people under 65 die in the US each year.

Re: Covid-19 has a 0.05% fatality rate in people under 65 without comorbidities

#16

Post by vannevar »

jtdaugh wrote: post #11
vannevar wrote: post #10

The mortality rate is not the only consideration. People don't want to die, sure, but they also don't want to spend a couple of weeks in the hospital. And that risk, even for those under 65, is much, much higher: at least 1 in 100 (Source: https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page ). Not only do individuals not want to spend time in the hospital, we as a society don't want them there either. Assuming we…

I can't find hospitalizations broken out by underlying illnesses, but if among each age bracket we assume the % of deaths associated with underlying illness holds as the % of hospitalizations associated with underlying illness, then we get a "healthy under 65" Hospitalization Rate of 0.3% to 0.5%. Under 65: 7.4M people 1.55M infected 26,000 hospitalizations 4,548 "healthy" hospitalizations (16% of deaths under 65 hav…

Good point. I was assuming using the rate per capita would be best case, but you're right, you'd also need underlying illness rates. I think the point stands though, that hospitalization rates for otherwise healthy patients under 65 is an order of magnitude higher than their mortality rate.

Re: Covid-19 has a 0.05% fatality rate in people under 65 without comorbidities

#17

Post by verdverm »

jtdaugh wrote: post #15
Someone wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also, 0.05% sounds like a tiny number, but is larger than mortality probability of all other causes in the USA for people in the 1-21 age bracket, still is half of it at age 33 and about a quarter of it at age 45 ( https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html ), and that’s even with those statistics including people with comorbidities. Looking at it another way, if the entire population were healthy, that’s 160.000 d…

Another way to look at it: ~700,000 people under 65 die in the US each year.

Or ~240,000K each month in total (across all demographics)

(~8000/day)

Re: Covid-19 has a 0.05% fatality rate in people under 65 without comorbidities

#18

Post by rpiguy »

Someone wrote: post #9
rpiguy wrote: post #2

While I agree that the press is exaggerating the deadliness of the disease, this number is also misleading. As many will point out, the vast majority of US citizens have at least one comorbidity (obesity, diabetes, heart trouble, smoking, asthma, etc.) You have to go to the very young (under 25) to find a sizable population without a comorbidity. I think it is more useful to point out that mortality is skewed heavily…

Also, 0.05% sounds like a tiny number, but is larger than mortality probability of all other causes in the USA for people in the 1-21 age bracket, still is half of it at age 33 and about a quarter of it at age 45 ( https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html ), and that’s even with those statistics including people with comorbidities. Looking at it another way, if the entire population were healthy, that’s 160.000 d…

Well the mortality difference by age is stunning:

According to CDC data, 81% of deaths from COVID-19 in the United States are people over 65 years old, most with preexisting conditions. If you add in 55-64-year-olds that number jumps to 93%.

For those below age 55, preexisting conditions play a significant role, but the death rate is currently around 0.0022%, or one death per 45,000 people in this age range.

Below 25 years old the fatality rate of COVID-19 is 0.00008%, or roughly one in 1.25 million.

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