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28M Mail-In Ballots Went Missing in Last Four Elections

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Re: 28M Mail-In Ballots Went Missing in Last Four Elections

#11

Post by specialist »

smitty1e wrote: post #5
specialist wrote: post #3

Unreturned (uncast) ballots are not "missing". USPS's UAA (undelivered as addressed) rate for first class mail is ~1%. Both ways. Something for postal ballot advocates to consider. Make sure your jurisdictions have online ballot trackers.

No, no, no. These "improvements" are anything but. If we value the integrity of our elections, we need to minimize the amount of metadata generated. You need: - a small pollbook of legal voters - a location for those voters to obtain and secretly mark a paper ballot - a means to cast that ballot and tally that polling place's numbers - a chain of custody for all ballots that protects the election's legitimacy Electio…

Preaching to the choir. :)

I opposed going all vote by mail.

Inspection of the actual gear and procedures shows postal balloting is worse than touchscreens, election integrity wise.

Sadly, I lost. Too much money is involved for me alone to stop this gravy train.

I did get some minor concessions from my election administrators, so that auditing and recounts would remain feasible, as required by our laws.

Re: 28M Mail-In Ballots Went Missing in Last Four Elections

#12

Post by specialist »

masonic wrote: post #10
joelhoffman wrote: post #8

There's nothing magic about ballot sheets. Anyone could run off as many as they want on a copier. What protects elections in vote by mail systems is the fact that you can check your ballot status and everyone can only vote once. If you steal my ballot, I get a replacement and we both vote, that will be flagged. Plus you need to know how to forge my signature, which they do check.

everyone can only vote once Does your registrar even check that? SV's doesn't even check if a given voter voted both precinct and absentee or if one voted in multiple precincts (e.g. prior and current neighborhood after a move to another precinct). They don't even check for existing registration in other precincts (let alone counties) unless the voter explicitly provides prior-address data.

Who is SV?

Every jurisdiction I'm aware of in the USA does ballot reconciliation, to detect double voting. Some are using electronic poll books, updated in near real time, to help prevent it.

Re: 28M Mail-In Ballots Went Missing in Last Four Elections

#13

Post by cy_hauser »

smitty1e wrote: post #5
specialist wrote: post #3

Unreturned (uncast) ballots are not "missing". USPS's UAA (undelivered as addressed) rate for first class mail is ~1%. Both ways. Something for postal ballot advocates to consider. Make sure your jurisdictions have online ballot trackers.

No, no, no. These "improvements" are anything but. If we value the integrity of our elections, we need to minimize the amount of metadata generated. You need: - a small pollbook of legal voters - a location for those voters to obtain and secretly mark a paper ballot - a means to cast that ballot and tally that polling place's numbers - a chain of custody for all ballots that protects the election's legitimacy Electio…

> - a location for those voters to obtain and secretly mark a paper ballot

But then how do you get more poor and minority folks to vote? These are the people harmed by not having mail in (or more appropriately called "time free" voting.

Don't we want more participation? Especially by those who find current rules end in a trade-off of wages for the ability to vote?

Re: 28M Mail-In Ballots Went Missing in Last Four Elections

#14

Post by specialist »

cy_hauser wrote: post #13
smitty1e wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, no, no. These "improvements" are anything but. If we value the integrity of our elections, we need to minimize the amount of metadata generated. You need: - a small pollbook of legal voters - a location for those voters to obtain and secretly mark a paper ballot - a means to cast that ballot and tally that polling place's numbers - a chain of custody for all ballots that protects the election's legitimacy Electio…

> - a location for those voters to obtain and secretly mark a paper ballot But then how do you get more poor and minority folks to vote? These are the people harmed by not having mail in (or more appropriately called "time free" voting. Don't we want more participation? Especially by those who find current rules end in a trade-off of wages for the ability to vote?

During the aughts, my small cadre opposed "vote by mail" (100% postal ballots, limited in person voting) because we believed it'd disenfranchise the poor, minorities, and students.

Anecdotally, because we had trouble accessing the relevant data, we reasoned those populations are more mobile, with inferior mail service, so postal balloting faces more challenges.

Until very recently, it seemed as though our predictions were proving true.

However, in my jurisdiction, since 2016, both voter registration and participation has increased, seemingly durably. I dare not hope, for fear of jinxing it, these trends continue.

Fast forward to today. I'm very worried about 2020. For so many reasons.

I've always supported postal balloting such that it enfranchises people who would otherwise be disenfranchised. (Postal balloting was invented for people serving in the military and otherwise wouldn't be able to vote.)

So during this pandemic I don't see any other choice than to permit postal balloting for any and all (on demand, no justification necessary).

But knowing firsthand the challenges my jurisdiction had with a gradual well funded switch over, it's going to be a nationwide fubar. Especially in non-urban counties without the institutional knowledge.

Now, more than ever, we need to pour resources into election administration. And managing expectations. For example, final results are going to take A LOT longer, so people (especially media) should be prepared to wait.

Re: 28M Mail-In Ballots Went Missing in Last Four Elections

#15

Post by smitty1e »

cy_hauser wrote: post #13
smitty1e wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, no, no. These "improvements" are anything but. If we value the integrity of our elections, we need to minimize the amount of metadata generated. You need: - a small pollbook of legal voters - a location for those voters to obtain and secretly mark a paper ballot - a means to cast that ballot and tally that polling place's numbers - a chain of custody for all ballots that protects the election's legitimacy Electio…

> - a location for those voters to obtain and secretly mark a paper ballot But then how do you get more poor and minority folks to vote? These are the people harmed by not having mail in (or more appropriately called "time free" voting. Don't we want more participation? Especially by those who find current rules end in a trade-off of wages for the ability to vote?

Smaller pollbooks, preferably within walking distance of home.

There are legitimate reasons to vote early. Allow people to cast a ballot at a secure location beforehand.

Election integrity and maximizing participation are both goals, but the former is more important.

And if you're an adult, and circumstances force you to move around the time of an election, add managing your voter registration into your task list.

We can all agree that database maintenance is hard. So own your entry in the pollbook like an adult.

This is, arguably, a simple competence check for casting the ballot.

Re: 28M Mail-In Ballots Went Missing in Last Four Elections

#16

Post by smitty1e »

specialist wrote: post #11
smitty1e wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, no, no. These "improvements" are anything but. If we value the integrity of our elections, we need to minimize the amount of metadata generated. You need: - a small pollbook of legal voters - a location for those voters to obtain and secretly mark a paper ballot - a means to cast that ballot and tally that polling place's numbers - a chain of custody for all ballots that protects the election's legitimacy Electio…

Preaching to the choir. :) I opposed going all vote by mail. Inspection of the actual gear and procedures shows postal balloting is worse than touchscreens, election integrity wise. Sadly, I lost. Too much money is involved for me alone to stop this gravy train. I did get some minor concessions from my election administrators, so that auditing and recounts would remain feasible, as required by our laws.

We need to broadcast the folly if vote-by-mail far and wide.

In defense of vote-by-mail proponents, if the voters are stupid enough to permit this folly to unfold, then I'm ready to blame the victims.

Re: 28M Mail-In Ballots Went Missing in Last Four Elections

#17

Post by specialist »

smitty1e wrote: post #16
specialist wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Preaching to the choir. :) I opposed going all vote by mail. Inspection of the actual gear and procedures shows postal balloting is worse than touchscreens, election integrity wise. Sadly, I lost. Too much money is involved for me alone to stop this gravy train. I did get some minor concessions from my election administrators, so that auditing and recounts would remain feasible, as required by our laws.

We need to broadcast the folly if vote-by-mail far and wide. In defense of vote-by-mail proponents, if the voters are stupid enough to permit this folly to unfold, then I'm ready to blame the victims.

FWIW, my #1 lesson learned from my activism failures is:

Have an affirmative agenda.

Offense over defense. It's just so much harder to oppose stuff. Especially if you have an end goal. Like pushing rope.

If I could do it all over again, I would have started a "citizen owned elections" effort.

Creating an open source software and hardware stack, model legislation (for the policies, laws, rules, regulations, procedures), and educational materials (messaging, talking points, explainers).

I went all across my state with the "citizen owned elections" notion. It was a 90/10 issue. Broad support across Dems, GOP, Greens, good govt groups, etc.

Alas.

Re: 28M Mail-In Ballots Went Missing in Last Four Elections

#18

Post by akhilcacharya »

forgot_my_pwd wrote: post #6
akhilcacharya wrote: post #2

Blaming “ballot harvesting” on Hillary Clinton winning three popular vote is really something.

Well it's certainly part of the reason. More philosophically, when one's voting agency is shared with another person, as is the case in ballot harvesting, the opportunity for abuse multiplies. This is why most states have outlawed ballot harvesting. Consider: I come to your door with a ballot. You had not thought about voting because you didn't particularly care about the candidates, but I am an agent for candidate A…

> Well it's certainly part of the reason.

No, the reason is that Trump is a historically unpopular person and President. Blaming "ballot harvesting" is hilarious on the order of claiming Russia altered vote totals.

The article makes a similar point regarding the loss of Orange County Republicans, despite the fact that their prior strength has been eroded for years based on the OC's demographic trends, the vilification of refugees in a region with a vibrant Vietnamese community, and the elimination of the SALT deduction. The article is partisan hand-wringing, pure and simple.

Re: 28M Mail-In Ballots Went Missing in Last Four Elections

#19

Post by masonic »

specialist wrote: post #12
masonic wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

everyone can only vote once Does your registrar even check that? SV's doesn't even check if a given voter voted both precinct and absentee or if one voted in multiple precincts (e.g. prior and current neighborhood after a move to another precinct). They don't even check for existing registration in other precincts (let alone counties) unless the voter explicitly provides prior-address data.

Who is SV? Every jurisdiction I'm aware of in the USA does ballot reconciliation, to detect double voting. Some are using electronic poll books, updated in near real time, to help prevent it.

Silicon Valley, e.g. Santa Clara County.

"Ballot reconciliation", executed perfectly, can only detect multiple ballots by the same registration.

I'm talking about an individual registered multiple times in separate precincts simultaneously.

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