In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms • Hacker News Board

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#11

Post by bb2018 » Sat, Apr 25, 2020, 8:38 PM UTC

marcell wrote: post #3

I've been tracking the antibody study results in a spreadsheet, and they are suggesting a 10-20x undercount of cases in the official "confirmed" numbers. You can see the data I've collected here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16onEUBWIV5IqN1RCvTla...

I think antibody tests will soon become more useful for tracking disease progression in a population than the viral tests. The collection methods may skew things but they still are much more close to a random sample than the viral tests which have lots of issues with test shortages and people unable to get tested (or not wanting to go to the hospital with mild symptoms).

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#12

Post by jessaustin » Sat, Apr 25, 2020, 8:39 PM UTC

Our prisons do not reduce crime. All of these people should have been released months ago.

[EDIT:] Apparently these propositions are not self-evident to all HN downvoters. They follow directly from several other propositions that really should be obvious. USA imprisons vastly higher percentages of its population than other nations. Yet it still has higher crime than those other nations. QED.

[EDIT:] 'thendrill you appear to be hellbanned.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#13

Post by pcdoodle » Sat, Apr 25, 2020, 8:40 PM UTC

Hope they didn't give them the batch that arstechnica reported contaminated.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#14

Post by tyingq » Sat, Apr 25, 2020, 8:40 PM UTC

alexbanks wrote: post #2

Before the deluge of "But wait two weeks" comments, I just want to ask at what point we accept that the potentially of totally asymptomatic cases is insanely high, far higher than anyone thought?

There's also the nuance of US state prison care quality. "Without symptoms" could just mean "not obviously gasping for air".

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#15

Post by nodesocket » Sat, Apr 25, 2020, 8:40 PM UTC

Isn't this a bit of promising news, means herd immunity is probably much deeper and larger than we are currently aware.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#16

Post by buboard » Sat, Apr 25, 2020, 8:40 PM UTC

marcell wrote: post #3

I've been tracking the antibody study results in a spreadsheet, and they are suggesting a 10-20x undercount of cases in the official "confirmed" numbers. You can see the data I've collected here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16onEUBWIV5IqN1RCvTla...

i don't understand the value of this multiplier. Case statistics are not an official census, it's incidental , depending on the criteria with which each region makes tests. Case numbers are unimportant, it's the total infections and consequent deaths that matter

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#17

Post by azakai » Sat, Apr 25, 2020, 8:41 PM UTC

It doesn't appear to mention what type of test was done. Were they checking for current active infection, or for antibodies which would indicate if the person has ever been infected? (if the latter, they may have had symptoms back then)

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#18

Post by skybrian » Sat, Apr 25, 2020, 8:41 PM UTC

marcell wrote: post #3

I've been tracking the antibody study results in a spreadsheet, and they are suggesting a 10-20x undercount of cases in the official "confirmed" numbers. You can see the data I've collected here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16onEUBWIV5IqN1RCvTla...

I wonder which tests they used? A recent study is finding that some antibody tests are much better than others when it comes to false positives:

https://tildes.net/~health.coronavirus/o6a/coronavirus_antib...

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#19

Post by garmaine » Sat, Apr 25, 2020, 8:42 PM UTC

bb2018 wrote: post #11

marcell wrote: post #3

I've been tracking the antibody study results in a spreadsheet, and they are suggesting a 10-20x undercount of cases in the official "confirmed" numbers. You can see the data I've collected here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16onEUBWIV5IqN1RCvTla...

I think antibody tests will soon become more useful for tracking disease progression in a population than the viral tests. The collection methods may skew things but they still are much more close to a random sample than the viral tests which have lots of issues with test shortages and people unable to get tested (or not wanting to go to the hospital with mild symptoms).

They have huge false positive rates though.

Re: In 4 US state prisons, 3,300 inmates test positive, 96% without symptoms

#20

Post by sroussey » Sat, Apr 25, 2020, 8:42 PM UTC

alexbanks wrote: post #2

Before the deluge of "But wait two weeks" comments, I just want to ask at what point we accept that the potentially of totally asymptomatic cases is insanely high, far higher than anyone thought?

It’s always high on these antibody tests, low on tests approved by the FDA.