Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

New Yorkers consider relocating post coronavirus

movebuddha.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

11–20 of 144 posts

Re: New Yorkers consider relocating post coronavirus

#11

Post by Barrin92 »

nugget wrote: post #2

I saw a statistic that 0.25% of NYC’s population has already died from Coronavirus (15k/6m). It seems worse there due to the density, and similarly dense cities like London are in the same boat.

Important to point out that about 155k people die in NY every year. About 1% of Americans die each year, so there is a crucial distinction between dying with a disease, and dying of a disease.

Risk is not additive. The median age for covid deaths is well into the late 70s, which means that there is a high risk of death in the same period anyway would the person not have been infected with covid.

The overall mortality numbers will be up, but throwing that stat out there is hugely misleading.

Re: New Yorkers consider relocating post coronavirus

#12

Post by nkozyra »

acchow wrote: post #5
nugget wrote: post #2

I saw a statistic that 0.25% of NYC’s population has already died from Coronavirus (15k/6m). It seems worse there due to the density, and similarly dense cities like London are in the same boat.

citation please?

Doesn't seem quite right but not too far off. .25% of NYC's population is 21,000.

Johns Hopkins shows 14,451 deaths as of now: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...

Re: New Yorkers consider relocating post coronavirus

#13

Post by zamfi »

acchow wrote: post #5
nugget wrote: post #2

I saw a statistic that 0.25% of NYC’s population has already died from Coronavirus (15k/6m). It seems worse there due to the density, and similarly dense cities like London are in the same boat.

citation please?

As of today, 10,344 confirmed deaths [0] from COVID-19, of a population of 8.4m [1] is 0.12% [2].

This is less than the original parent states, but only by 2x.

[0] https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=coronav...

[1] https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=nyc+pop...

[2] Elementary math?

Re: New Yorkers consider relocating post coronavirus

#16

Post by ahelwer »

daenz wrote: post #14

I'm considering relocating from Seattle purely based on the fact that we can make WFH commonplace. Why pay insane rents to physically be in a location I can work remotely?

Because Seattle's a pretty great city to live in? You can still easily find rent below $1500/month for a 1 bedroom on Capitol Hill, it isn't too insane.

Editing to add Seattle has world-class rock climbing, mountaineering, and hiking under an hour's drive from downtown, and if you aren't doing that you're probably missing out on half the joy of living here.

Re: New Yorkers consider relocating post coronavirus

#17

Post by nkozyra »

Barrin92 wrote: post #11
nugget wrote: post #2

I saw a statistic that 0.25% of NYC’s population has already died from Coronavirus (15k/6m). It seems worse there due to the density, and similarly dense cities like London are in the same boat.

Important to point out that about 155k people die in NY every year. About 1% of Americans die each year, so there is a crucial distinction between dying with a disease, and dying of a disease. Risk is not additive. The median age for covid deaths is well into the late 70s, which means that there is a high risk of death in the same period anyway would the person not have been infected with covid. The overall mortality…

This seems to misrepresent overall mortality with cause-specific mortality.

If I'm struck by a car with stage 4 cancer, the car accident killed me, regardless of my outlook. If that car accident happens to be highly contagious, well then the cause is even more important.

> Risk is not additive.

It isn't always, but it very often is and it is in this case.

Re: New Yorkers consider relocating post coronavirus

#18

Post by Animats »

Finnucane wrote: post #9
ummonk wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, that statistic is what I point out to people who claim that the IFR from coronavirus is actually tiny due to undiagnosed infections.

The biggest spike in the local death rate since 9/11/01 is not "just another flu season". Though NYC's population is probably closer to 9m now.

Biggest spike, period.

NYC confirmed deaths related to Covid-19: 7,890 and counting.[1]

9/11 death toll: 2,996.

[1] https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-citys-coronavirus-deat...

Re: New Yorkers consider relocating post coronavirus

#20

Post by hn_throwaway_99 »

I think the aftermath of coronavirus is really going to be larger that most people are anticipating when it comes to work and migration patterns:

1. In the past 25 years there has been a huge re-migration back to cores of major cities. I think that is going to stop.

2. Suburbs and exurbs I think will become way more popular. The normal limiting factor on those locations is the commute, but I think so many more companies will be used to remote work after this (even if they don't necessarily prefer it) that you'll see a lot more "come into the office once or twice a week" type things that make living in the exurbs a lot more bearable.

3. I don't foresee migration away from the major metros. People will still go where the jobs are, and if anything I see the pandemic making strong companies stronger and smaller, weaker companies weaker. Definitely would not be willing to put a lot of money down on this 3rd point, though, could see a trend toward 2nd/3rd tier cities.

Post reply on HN