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California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

ucdavis.edu

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Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

#11

I've been meaning to ask in /r/theydidthemath if the quarantine is actually reducing violent crime, car accidents, pollution, other infectious diseases, STDs, etc. so that we may come out break even or even ahead compared to covid deaths. Just trying to find the silver lining here.

Looking at the graph here [0], it would be very surprising if COVID was net saving lives.

[0] https://www.businessinsider.com/chart-us-weekly-coronavirus-...

Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

#14

I've been meaning to ask in /r/theydidthemath if the quarantine is actually reducing violent crime, car accidents, pollution, other infectious diseases, STDs, etc. so that we may come out break even or even ahead compared to covid deaths. Just trying to find the silver lining here.

That seems unlikely given that in the week of April 6 to 12, Covid 19 has risen to the 2nd leading cause of death in the United States[1]. [1]: https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/04/16/coronaviru...

I’m also expecting some long term after-effects that will increase diabetes and heart disease as most people are locked up.

Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

#15
post #12
post #6

~$1/resident/day sounds a lot less impressive

Indeed. And what are net economic losses? I'm guessing that it's somewhere between 100 and 1000 times that. Edit: Sorry. Make that 10-100 times greater.

> Indeed. And what are net economic losses? I'm guessing that it's somewhere between 100 and 1000 times that.

$40 million per day = $14.6 billion per year

The GDP of California is $2.75 trillion.

Your low end estimate of 100x would be a 53% drop in California's GDP, while the 1000x estimate seems impossible.

Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

#17
post #10

I've been meaning to ask in /r/theydidthemath if the quarantine is actually reducing violent crime, car accidents, pollution, other infectious diseases, STDs, etc. so that we may come out break even or even ahead compared to covid deaths. Just trying to find the silver lining here.

Aside from even the fatalities, the math still is that 50% of LA is presently unemployed. While some articles are somehow gleeful in the face of this calamitous reality, there is no where near a net balance. The Fed has spent at least $2 trillion dollars on this already. Probably closer to $6 trillion by the time we are done. It is an unimaginably large cost to shut things down relative to any possible benefit.

> It is an unimaginably large cost to shut things down relative to any possible benefit.

That's a failure of imagination.

Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

#18

I've been meaning to ask in /r/theydidthemath if the quarantine is actually reducing violent crime, car accidents, pollution, other infectious diseases, STDs, etc. so that we may come out break even or even ahead compared to covid deaths. Just trying to find the silver lining here.

some partial data:

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/04/16/could-ame...

Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

#19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That seems unlikely given that in the week of April 6 to 12, Covid 19 has risen to the 2nd leading cause of death in the United States[1]. [1]: https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/04/16/coronaviru...

I’m also expecting some long term after-effects that will increase diabetes and heart disease as most people are locked up.

non-essential procedures and doctor's visits have also been cancelled, and some medicines are now rationed also. Both will have a negative impact on the health of some people.

I personally had a month long series of treatments scheduled that got cancelled, and now I have no idea when I'll be able to get that treatment. Better than dying from the virus, though.

Re: California Covid-19 traffic report finds silver lining

#20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That seems unlikely given that in the week of April 6 to 12, Covid 19 has risen to the 2nd leading cause of death in the United States[1]. [1]: https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/04/16/coronaviru...

I’m also expecting some long term after-effects that will increase diabetes and heart disease as most people are locked up.

Really? Maybe my local experience is an outlier but I've seen significantly more people cooking meals at home and exercising. The number of daily runners in my neighborhood has easily increased 10x. Are gluttony and sedentary lifestyles not the major contributors for type-2 diabetes and heart disease?
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