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Covid may be far more widespread than we thought

economist.com

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Re: Covid may be far more widespread than we thought

#12
post #2

> "I think the 3.4 percent is really a false number — and this is just my hunch — but based on a lot of conversations with a lot of people that do this, because a lot of people will have this and it's very mild, they'll get better very rapidly. They don't even see a doctor. They don't even call a doctor. You never hear about those people,..." At the time, the person who said that was called an idiot.

He's still an idiot. He chose to believe that not because of research or statistics or the advice of people with expertise, but because it was convenient. This was at the beginning of March when there had only been 11 deaths. He was making the argument that this is no worse than the normal seasonal flu, because he was loathe to take any drastic preventative action that might disrupt his precious stock market.

Well, here we are now, thousands have died, with thousands more on the way, and the economic damage has already been done. That's what happens when you let an idiot run the country.

Re: Covid may be far more widespread than we thought

#13
post #11

I was pretty sick in late February, and ended up in the urgent care at my local Kaiser. It was packed at the time too. Seemed like everyone was sick with the flu.

It might actually have been the flu. At least for me (in North Carolina), this year's flu vaccine was a miss, so I ended up sick anyway.

Re: Covid may be far more widespread than we thought

#14
post #12
post #2

> "I think the 3.4 percent is really a false number — and this is just my hunch — but based on a lot of conversations with a lot of people that do this, because a lot of people will have this and it's very mild, they'll get better very rapidly. They don't even see a doctor. They don't even call a doctor. You never hear about those people,..." At the time, the person who said that was called an idiot.

He's still an idiot. He chose to believe that not because of research or statistics or the advice of people with expertise, but because it was convenient. This was at the beginning of March when there had only been 11 deaths. He was making the argument that this is no worse than the normal seasonal flu, because he was loathe to take any drastic preventative action that might disrupt his precious stock market. Well, h…

I'm loathe to defend the current US president, but almost no Western country took this seriously until the last possible minute. There is clearly a deeper ideological issue infecting the entire West.

Re: Covid may be far more widespread than we thought

#15
post #6
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 30 days ago many HN posters were saying this. I guess they were all idiots too. Quite possibly. There are all kinds.

https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Study-investigates-if... Idiots popping up everywhere, it seems...

That article is comparing NY to CA with the expectation that they should be more similar.

CA is a very car-centric state, the public transportation situation is a joke. I'd expect this alone to tamp down the spread relative to NY, considering the density of NYC and how ubiquitous public transportation is there.

Re: Covid may be far more widespread than we thought

#16
post #6
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 30 days ago many HN posters were saying this. I guess they were all idiots too. Quite possibly. There are all kinds.

https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Study-investigates-if... Idiots popping up everywhere, it seems...

>He does not advocate lifting social distancing rules

I believe the "idiots" referred to above are the people who blindly assumed without evidence the experimental hypothesis of this study simply as an excuse to avoid social distancing and self isolation.

Re: Covid may be far more widespread than we thought

#17
post #11

I was pretty sick in late February, and ended up in the urgent care at my local Kaiser. It was packed at the time too. Seemed like everyone was sick with the flu.

My son had a nasty bout of pneumonia in late January / early February, so I'll be interested in an antibody test for him when they become available.

Re: Covid may be far more widespread than we thought

#18
post #11

I was pretty sick in late February, and ended up in the urgent care at my local Kaiser. It was packed at the time too. Seemed like everyone was sick with the flu.

> I was pretty sick in late February, and ended up in the urgent care at my local Kaiser. It was packed at the time too. Seemed like everyone was sick with the flu.

The 2019-2020 seasonal flu has also been relatively bad compared to many other years.

https://time.com/5758953/flu-season-2019-2020/: 2019-2020 Flu Season on Track to Be Especially Severe, New CDC Data Suggests (Jan 4th).

Re: Covid may be far more widespread than we thought

#20

% of visits to primary care provider is a _terrible_ metric. People have been actively advised to stay away from the Doctor’s office and hospitals for routine reasons (and reschedule for later). Obviously the % visiting because they think they have Covid is going up, even if they don’t have it!

One of the study authors addressed this on Twitter. It’s certainly not hard proof, but 8 million extra cases would be a whole lot of hypochondriacs. Thread is short and worth a read. https://mobile.twitter.com/inschool4life/status/124762000834...
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