New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown won’t be enough • Hacker News Board

Re: New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown won’t be enough

#11

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Mar 28, 2020, 3:37 PM UTC

empath75 wrote: post #7

vladd wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The economy is going to change, for sure. But different verticals are going to react differently to this state of intermittent lock-downs. Travel-related industries (hotels, restaurants, airlines, oil) are going downwards. Food delivery and gym@home equipment is going to sky-rocket. At the end of the day, it's a gamble to state where overall GDP or stock-market is ending, but over time increased air-born disease risk…

I’ll just give one example of how things will change — massive amounts of women are going to leave the workforce. Schools and day cares are not going to be reliable for the foreseeable future and women are more likely to quit their jobs and stay home if that becomes necessary.

[deleted]

Re: New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown won’t be enough

#12

Post by heavenlyblue » Sat, Mar 28, 2020, 3:37 PM UTC

empath75 wrote: post #8

bob33212 wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From a first principal perspective there is no reason why anyone should think that it is impossible for China or another country to create 2 billion vaccine doses in the next 6 months. There are plenty of reasons to say this will not happen but it isn't impossible. If it does happen everything flips very quickly.

It’s also possible no vaccine will be discovered as there are no coronavirus vaccines.

Your black-and-white answer to this also has a pretty low probability. We may not find a vaccine, however we may find ways of treating the illness making the ICU less needed.

Re: New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown won’t be enough

#13

Post by masonhensley » Sat, Mar 28, 2020, 3:42 PM UTC

IgorPartola wrote: post #4

empath75 wrote: post #2

Successive lockdowns and easings are probably going to continue for up to two years. Anybody arguing that the stock market or the economy is going to bounce back quickly in the next two months are either bullshitting you or deluding themselves. No “stimulus” package is going to be effective, because you can’t use spending to stimulate an economy which has been forced to stop producing goods and services. All you will…

/r/Wallstreetbets just had someone put $775k, the person’s entire net worth, into options on the idea that the market will crash by 6/19. I am sure comments like yours give them hope that they are right. Personally, I think that the economy will change significantly, but crash vs recover for markets is different. If suddenly workers got a fair wage and everyone got universal healthcare we could easily see the country…

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/fpo4y5/brot...

Re: New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown won’t be enough

#14

Post by jimmySixDOF » Sat, Mar 28, 2020, 3:42 PM UTC

There is another study from Harvard released this week saying the same thing about multiple surges of containment:

[1] https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/927586

Re: New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown won’t be enough

#15

Post by xwdv » Sat, Mar 28, 2020, 3:42 PM UTC

chippy wrote: post #3

Baity title - the actual article was more interesting than the sensationalist baity title suggested

Quite an inflammatory title too. Don’t tell me what to do.

Re: New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown won’t be enough

#16

Post by DenisM » Sat, Mar 28, 2020, 3:44 PM UTC

empath75 wrote: post #2

Successive lockdowns and easings are probably going to continue for up to two years. Anybody arguing that the stock market or the economy is going to bounce back quickly in the next two months are either bullshitting you or deluding themselves. No “stimulus” package is going to be effective, because you can’t use spending to stimulate an economy which has been forced to stop producing goods and services. All you will…

>either bullshitting you or deluding themselves

Was this the best possible way to treat an intellectual disagreement? Surely people can disagree with you without being liars or delusionary?

Comments should get more thoughtful and substantive, not less, as a topic gets more divisive. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

Re: New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown won’t be enough

#17

Post by fedorareis » Sat, Mar 28, 2020, 3:47 PM UTC

empath75 wrote: post #8

bob33212 wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From a first principal perspective there is no reason why anyone should think that it is impossible for China or another country to create 2 billion vaccine doses in the next 6 months. There are plenty of reasons to say this will not happen but it isn't impossible. If it does happen everything flips very quickly.

It’s also possible no vaccine will be discovered as there are no coronavirus vaccines.

There are no human approved coronavirus vaccines. There were a number of SARS vaccines that never finished clinical trials because SARS became pretty much a non-issue before they finished. There are also coronavirus vaccines approved for animals. Both of these things could potentially help with faster developing a vaccine for COVID-19.

Re: New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown won’t be enough

#18

Post by gizmo686 » Sat, Mar 28, 2020, 3:47 PM UTC

bob33212 wrote: post #6

IgorPartola wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

/r/Wallstreetbets just had someone put $775k, the person’s entire net worth, into options on the idea that the market will crash by 6/19. I am sure comments like yours give them hope that they are right. Personally, I think that the economy will change significantly, but crash vs recover for markets is different. If suddenly workers got a fair wage and everyone got universal healthcare we could easily see the country…

From a first principal perspective there is no reason why anyone should think that it is impossible for China or another country to create 2 billion vaccine doses in the next 6 months. There are plenty of reasons to say this will not happen but it isn't impossible. If it does happen everything flips very quickly.

From a practical perspective, there seems to be no appetite in the medical community to attempt this. We have vaccine candidates now, and the consensus opinion seems to be that we should go through the trial process. There just isn't much room to shorten the timeline without cutting corners and safety and efficacy verifications. Unless we learn something dramatic and terrifying new about this virus in the near future, I don't see what would cause this calculus to change.

Re: New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown won’t be enough

#19

Post by jariel » Sat, Mar 28, 2020, 3:49 PM UTC

This is terrible thinking: South Korea and other places have not locked down and they have effectively contained the virus.

We are doing Trillions of damage they are avoiding. Given the costs we should be spending billions studying what they are doing.

We need to understand more effectively how the virus is spreading and focus on those spots, not this lockdown stuff which is too costly.

Some basic policies like mask-wearing for everyone in public, gloves, and masks in restaurants, and on subways busses, N95 maybe for anyone in crowded area jobs, anyone with any sickness immediately self-isolates etc..

These total shut-downs seem like a 'home vacay' for now but it will start causing serious pain very soon.

Edit: I should add by 'trillions in damage' I'm not worried about shareholders; this will have serious consequences for people. Many millions are losing their jobs, millions will be evicted, foreclosed, homeless, jobless, and otherwise, have their lives severely disrupted. FYI in America no job = no healthcare. At some point, the shelves stop being stocked. We need to be smart.

Re: New restrictions in Hong Kong show that a single lockdown won’t be enough

#20

Post by pretendscholar » Sat, Mar 28, 2020, 3:50 PM UTC

bob33212 wrote: post #6

IgorPartola wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

/r/Wallstreetbets just had someone put $775k, the person’s entire net worth, into options on the idea that the market will crash by 6/19. I am sure comments like yours give them hope that they are right. Personally, I think that the economy will change significantly, but crash vs recover for markets is different. If suddenly workers got a fair wage and everyone got universal healthcare we could easily see the country…

From a first principal perspective there is no reason why anyone should think that it is impossible for China or another country to create 2 billion vaccine doses in the next 6 months. There are plenty of reasons to say this will not happen but it isn't impossible. If it does happen everything flips very quickly.

Which first principles are you using to come to that conclusion?