The case fatality is As bad as Italy is, India worries me the most by far.
Italy historically has had excess mortality for influenza
11–20 of 27 posts
Re: Italy historically has had excess mortality for influenza
#12Re: Italy historically has had excess mortality for influenza
#13Fake news. Italy has one of the lowest mortality rates from Influenza. https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/cause-of-death/influenza... https://gateway.euro.who.int/en/hfa-explorer/#5o3t8K9BTb https://championtraveler.com/news/the-us-flu-season-is-bad-t...
I don't think that is what fake news means. It is what appears to be a reviewed article. Is that not the case?
Was it shown to be incorrect in findings or methods?
Re: Italy historically has had excess mortality for influenza
#14Fake news. Italy has one of the lowest mortality rates from Influenza. https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/cause-of-death/influenza... https://gateway.euro.who.int/en/hfa-explorer/#5o3t8K9BTb https://championtraveler.com/news/the-us-flu-season-is-bad-t...
The paper I posted was from the international journal of infectious diseases and you give me a site with shaolin monks doing kata as a header.
Re: Italy historically has had excess mortality for influenza
#15The case fatality is As bad as Italy is, India worries me the most by far.
Do you have evidence that Italy has more infected than anywhere else? Because, that is what this would take, at this point.
Re: Italy historically has had excess mortality for influenza
#16The case fatality is As bad as Italy is, India worries me the most by far.
Do you have evidence that Italy has more infected than anywhere else? Because, that is what this would take, at this point.
No direct evidence. But any reasonable parameters for the viral reproductive number and mortality, along with clear evidence of asymptomatic carriage, lead to this inevitable conclusion.
Re: Italy historically has had excess mortality for influenza
#17Earlier quoted context omitted.
~500 total. Still a far cry from business as usual flu @ 200/day.
That isn't a chart. Or even a reference. :( Where are you getting these numbers?
There are several MSM sites reporting the death toll of US corona victims and they hover around 500 total at the moment. Note that they're very liberally grouping deaths into the corona bucket so I expect the number to be much lower in a post mortem. It's going to be like Trump's 2016 win where everyone was left scratching their heads and wondering how their math/fake science failed them.
My flu death rate of 200/day comes from the CDC's last year figure of 34000 / 6 months (a really stretched flu season).
Re: Italy historically has had excess mortality for influenza
#18Can we trust Italy's numbers? They're attributing any questionable death to corona to hide their embarrassing influenza death rate. This can almost explain USA's minuscule death toll at 500 (influenza season averages 200/day).
For those wondering if the people minimizing this disease as nothing more than a weaker influenza are correct, here's some data from new york's hospitals: https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-s...
Visits to emergency for Influenza-likeIllness+Pneumonia is at ~1.5x a bad flu season's peak and ~4x a normal flu season. Admissions for the same are at ~2-3x.
Re: Italy historically has had excess mortality for influenza
#19Earlier quoted context omitted.
Do you have evidence that Italy has more infected than anywhere else? Because, that is what this would take, at this point.
No direct evidence. But any reasonable parameters for the viral reproductive number and mortality, along with clear evidence of asymptomatic carriage, lead to this inevitable conclusion.
To be fair, I agree the expected case to death rate is less than one percent normally. The questions this leads to, is why it is higher on Italy? Either in reach of infection, or in deaths?
This article implies their infection to death rate was already elevated for the flu. Most accept this is, at best, a deadly flu. That would strengthen this hypothesis.
But your hypothesis seems to be there are more infected in Italy than elsewhere. But you then have to explain why it did more there.
If we have infection to death rates in all countries, that would let us predict if the first hypothesis is true. To test yours? What can we do?
Re: Italy historically has had excess mortality for influenza
#20Can we trust Italy's numbers? They're attributing any questionable death to corona to hide their embarrassing influenza death rate. This can almost explain USA's minuscule death toll at 500 (influenza season averages 200/day).
For those wondering if the people minimizing this disease as nothing more than a weaker influenza are correct, here's some data from new york's hospitals: https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-s... Visits to emergency for Influenza-likeIllness+Pneumonia is at ~1.5x a bad flu season's peak and ~4x a normal flu season. Admissions for the same are at ~2-3x.
I think people are claiming it is a stronger flu, not weaker.
I think there are lots of people that don't realize how many die of the flu every year, but that is a different claim.