Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer? • Hacker News Board

Re: Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?

#11

Post by runawaybottle » Mon, Mar 23, 2020, 5:06 AM UTC

ganeshkrishnan wrote: post #9

rogerthis wrote: post #6

I'm not much aware of details, but it seems it's thriving here in Brazil.

Likewise in Australia. I suspect this study hints that person to person transmission is not affected but that the virus has lower viability via surface spread in hot and humid climates. Australia is much more densely packed in Urban areas than other countries like India and in spite of favorable weather conditions the person to person transmission is high. They haven't enforced the shelter in place yet

I am very confused at the shockingly low cases in India, and the Indochina region.

Either it really is the climate or we’re talking zero testing and a fiasco that’s gonna engulf that region soon.

Re: Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?

#12

Post by eliseumds » Mon, Mar 23, 2020, 6:00 AM UTC

ganeshkrishnan wrote: post #9

rogerthis wrote: post #6

I'm not much aware of details, but it seems it's thriving here in Brazil.

Likewise in Australia. I suspect this study hints that person to person transmission is not affected but that the virus has lower viability via surface spread in hot and humid climates. Australia is much more densely packed in Urban areas than other countries like India and in spite of favorable weather conditions the person to person transmission is high. They haven't enforced the shelter in place yet

Sorry? Australia's biggest cities are orders of magnitude less dense than Indian cities. Think 10-100x less.

Re: Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?

#13

Post by alexanderhorl » Mon, Mar 23, 2020, 6:19 AM UTC

perl4ever wrote: post #4

It seems to me mathematically certain that it will. A week ago there were 170,000 cases, now there are 337,000. 337000*(337/170)^14.5 is roughly 7 billion. 14.5 weeks from now is July 1st. So either it diminishes or it's over by July, guaranteed.

This is not taking into account the slowdown of spread due to containment measures.

Re: Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?

#14

Post by MR4D » Mon, Mar 23, 2020, 6:38 AM UTC

Houston has high humidity, and will make it into the 90’s this week. If this is true, it should slow down here before someplace colder, right?

I would presume that if it doesn’t, then this summer assumption is not relevant.

Re: Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?

#15

Post by monkeycantype » Mon, Mar 23, 2020, 7:31 AM UTC

eliseumds wrote: post #12

ganeshkrishnan wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Likewise in Australia. I suspect this study hints that person to person transmission is not affected but that the virus has lower viability via surface spread in hot and humid climates. Australia is much more densely packed in Urban areas than other countries like India and in spite of favorable weather conditions the person to person transmission is high. They haven't enforced the shelter in place yet

Sorry? Australia's biggest cities are orders of magnitude less dense than Indian cities. Think 10-100x less.

While I don't know for sure what ganeshkrishnan intended, I'm going to take from the name and comment ganesh knows both countries. Perhaps what Ganesh meant is the while the population density in those Australian cities is very low, Australia has a highly urbanised population. ~11% of India's population are urbanised, 2/5 ths of australia's population is in just two cities. You hear figures for 80 or 90% of Australia's population is urbanised, but I don't have a cite.

Re: Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?

#16

Post by im3w1l » Mon, Mar 23, 2020, 8:02 AM UTC

runawaybottle wrote: post #11

ganeshkrishnan wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Likewise in Australia. I suspect this study hints that person to person transmission is not affected but that the virus has lower viability via surface spread in hot and humid climates. Australia is much more densely packed in Urban areas than other countries like India and in spite of favorable weather conditions the person to person transmission is high. They haven't enforced the shelter in place yet

I am very confused at the shockingly low cases in India, and the Indochina region. Either it really is the climate or we’re talking zero testing and a fiasco that’s gonna engulf that region soon.

My theory about India, is that because of poor hygiene, anyone with a weak immune system already died from something else.

Re: Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?

#17

Post by op03 » Mon, Mar 23, 2020, 8:06 AM UTC

alexanderhorl wrote: post #13

perl4ever wrote: post #4

It seems to me mathematically certain that it will. A week ago there were 170,000 cases, now there are 337,000. 337000*(337/170)^14.5 is roughly 7 billion. 14.5 weeks from now is July 1st. So either it diminishes or it's over by July, guaranteed.

This is not taking into account the slowdown of spread due to containment measures.

Also not taking into account in many parts of the world there is no such thing as Flu Season.

And no one knows why.

Re: Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?

#18

Post by op03 » Mon, Mar 23, 2020, 8:08 AM UTC

ganeshkrishnan wrote: post #9

rogerthis wrote: post #6

I'm not much aware of details, but it seems it's thriving here in Brazil.

Likewise in Australia. I suspect this study hints that person to person transmission is not affected but that the virus has lower viability via surface spread in hot and humid climates. Australia is much more densely packed in Urban areas than other countries like India and in spite of favorable weather conditions the person to person transmission is high. They haven't enforced the shelter in place yet

Where its hot and humid and positive cases are still showing up look at travel link density with China.

Re: Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?

#19

Post by op03 » Mon, Mar 23, 2020, 8:10 AM UTC

runawaybottle wrote: post #11

ganeshkrishnan wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Likewise in Australia. I suspect this study hints that person to person transmission is not affected but that the virus has lower viability via surface spread in hot and humid climates. Australia is much more densely packed in Urban areas than other countries like India and in spite of favorable weather conditions the person to person transmission is high. They haven't enforced the shelter in place yet

I am very confused at the shockingly low cases in India, and the Indochina region. Either it really is the climate or we’re talking zero testing and a fiasco that’s gonna engulf that region soon.

It depends on travel links with Wuhan. India is somewhere below top 10 in that list.

Re: Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?

#20

Post by blackrock » Mon, Mar 23, 2020, 8:13 AM UTC

runawaybottle wrote: post #11

ganeshkrishnan wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Likewise in Australia. I suspect this study hints that person to person transmission is not affected but that the virus has lower viability via surface spread in hot and humid climates. Australia is much more densely packed in Urban areas than other countries like India and in spite of favorable weather conditions the person to person transmission is high. They haven't enforced the shelter in place yet

I am very confused at the shockingly low cases in India, and the Indochina region. Either it really is the climate or we’re talking zero testing and a fiasco that’s gonna engulf that region soon.

Perhaps because India is not testing?

If you don’t test, then you cannot confirm someone has the virus. Thus, your confirmed cases remains low.

India has not shown up on the map yet, but I suspect that the virus is picking up steam. Every week, the numbers slowly increase. And by the time someone is confirmed with the virus, then they probably already infected 10 to 20 other people.