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Common Enemies

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Re: Common Enemies

#11

Post by roenxi »

This is an instance where on the one hand, a globally coordinated response doesn't do all that much. Korea doesn't seem to need any special help from Italy, for example.

On the other hand, global coordination by medical researchers is both critical and, I expect, frantic. The speed we've progressed from identification through sequencing and then on to Phase 3 antivirals is nothing short of jaw-dropping; this is the most amazing response to a disease we've seen in however many thousand years f recorded history we have.

We may also have to wind back the easy availability of travel after this too. This is probably going to become a 1 in 30 years style event if the travel networks don't change. Good thing to coordinate on, but an issue for the future.

Re: Common Enemies

#13

Post by watwut »

roenxi wrote: post #11

This is an instance where on the one hand, a globally coordinated response doesn't do all that much. Korea doesn't seem to need any special help from Italy, for example. On the other hand, global coordination by medical researchers is both critical and, I expect, frantic. The speed we've progressed from identification through sequencing and then on to Phase 3 antivirals is nothing short of jaw-dropping; this is the m…

> Korea doesn't seem to need any special help from Italy, for example.

But Italy gladly took help from China.

Re: Common Enemies

#14

Post by n4r9 »

milksteak42 wrote: post #2

I don't buy it. A crisis that causes the world's countries to isolate themselves from each other does not stimulate cooperation. In fact I'd argue the opposite - it highlights the downsides of a cooperative world with open borders and open markets. I'm not making a value judgement here, just that this will probably result in the opposite of what the article implies.

Physical separation doesn't suggest a lack of mutual cooperation. I'm interacting with my friends as much as if not more than ever despite never seeing them in person.

Re: Common Enemies

#15

Post by arvinsim »

n4r9 wrote: post #14
milksteak42 wrote: post #2

I don't buy it. A crisis that causes the world's countries to isolate themselves from each other does not stimulate cooperation. In fact I'd argue the opposite - it highlights the downsides of a cooperative world with open borders and open markets. I'm not making a value judgement here, just that this will probably result in the opposite of what the article implies.

Physical separation doesn't suggest a lack of mutual cooperation. I'm interacting with my friends as much as if not more than ever despite never seeing them in person.

I would say that this pandemic would argue more for better digital interconnectedness.

Global access to the internet is still not great. We need better networks!

Re: Common Enemies

#16

Post by alexpetralia »

arvinsim wrote: post #15
n4r9 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Physical separation doesn't suggest a lack of mutual cooperation. I'm interacting with my friends as much as if not more than ever despite never seeing them in person.

I would say that this pandemic would argue more for better digital interconnectedness. Global access to the internet is still not great. We need better networks!

I just had a random thought how ironic it would be if we all displaced physical connections with digital ones, only to be thwarted by a global, digital supervirus in lieu of a physical one.

Re: Common Enemies

#18

Post by cs702 »

> Pandemics kill people and recessions ruin people. Saying they have silver linings is a step too far. But I wonder if the best map we have that tells us what to expect next is the kind of extreme cooperation, solidarity, and empathy we last saw in the 1940s. And I wonder if we’ll look back at COVID-19 as one of the worst things to happen to us, yet triggering something positive that couldn’t be achieved any other way.

I really -- really -- hope the author is right. His arguments are persuasive and his logic is sound, but I'm less certain than he is of such a positive outcome.

Another historical precedent to keep in mind is the Little Ice Age in Europe, which brought about both sustained economic depression (due to poor crop growth and poor livestock survival) and widespread disease (due to increased activity of pathogens and disease vectors), including the Black Death. During this horrendous period, economic depression and widespread disease fueled each other, generating a lethal feedback loop. Quoting from Wikipedia: "Communities often lashed out via violent crimes, including robbery and murder; sexual offense accusations increased as well, such as adultery, bestiality, and rape. Europeans sought explanations for the famine, disease, and social unrest that they were experiencing, leading to the act of placing blame upon the innocent" (think Jews, women accused of witchcraft, people accused of blasphemy, and so on). "Evidence from several studies indicate that increases in violent actions against marginalized groups that were held responsible for the Little Ice Age overlap with years of particularly cold, dry weather."[a]

Back to the present: If most societies on earth blame an impersonal pathogen for this disastrous shock, and if governments everywhere manage to keep populations in reasonably good living conditions throughout the crisis, we may indeed see more unity against a common enemy. But if most societies resort to scapegoating, Heaven help us.

This isn't idle talk: As I write this, Trump is actively blaming "the Chinese" and "foreigners" for the virus,[b] while some Chinese officials blame "the Americans."[c] Russian media, by instinct or calculation, is blaming "America" too.[d] Others (e.g., Turkey's Erdogan, Iran's leaders) blame "a Zionist plot"[e] or other crazy conspiracies.[f]

The shock of COVID-19 could give demagogues everywhere fuel for re-lighting a fire of old prejudices and hatreds that had remained subdued for a generation or longer.[g]

As I wrote above, I really HOPE the author is right. I hope "the better angels of our nature" prevail.

--

[a] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age#Cultural_respon...

[b] https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/coronavirus-outbreak-trump-b...

[c] https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/02/china-blames-united-sta...

[d] https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/14/russia-blame-america-co...

[e] https://www.jpost.com/Diaspora/Antisemitism/Coronavirus-is-a...

[f] https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/iran-leader-r...

[g] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demagogue#Methods

Re: Common Enemies

#19

Post by gumby »

An encouraging essay, but things were not quite as rosy as described.

For examples in the article blood donations were required to be segregated by "race" (to their credit, the Navy just aggregated it and labeled outgoing bottles as needed). Crime rose in blackout Britain as the chance of being caught for theft and robbery fell dramatically.

I say this not to pooh-pooh the article. In fact on international cooperation we have a nice A/B test running right now: Europe sent emergency supplies to China and is now getting some in return. Countries that jumped at international standards reaped the benefits (Senegal has had and continues to have better testing capability and medical response than the USA). Those that chose to "go it alone" or practice censorship have done worse than those who have been more holistic.

It remains to be seen if any useful lessons are learnt from this experiment.

Re: Common Enemies

#20

Post by streetcat1 »

The problem with this virus is not that there is no vaccine, but that it has asymptomatic carriers.

Hence since there is no way to prove if one is infected, the government assumes that everyone is infected, thus halting economic activity.

The solution will probably be:

1) Massive testing - I could see "at home" test kit. 2) Some sort of certificate of the day of the test and the results. 3) Some sort of division between clean areas (where only non-infected people reside). For example, a flight must certify that all the passengers are clean.

The other option is to have the virus return every X month until there is a vaccine, or until 90-80% of the population is infected.

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