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New research shows social distancing a must to beat Covid-19

directorsblog.nih.gov

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Re: New research shows social distancing a must to beat Covid-19

#11

Post by sojournerc »

david_draco wrote: post #7
sojournerc wrote: post #4

> For every confirmed case of COVID-19, there are likely another five to 10 people with undetected infections. I wish this was reflected more in the numbers being presented by various authorities. There is just too much confidence that confirmed cases are representative of the spread of the virus. This unknown denominator can change mortality rate, and severe case rate by orders of magnitude. Because of the dearth of…

From the number of deaths you can crudely infer the number of infected, assuming the mortality on the Diamond princess and in South Korea (1%). Demographic effects are in play that don't make this quite right.

What if many of the passengers who tested negative on the Diamond Princess had it and had already recovered when they tested negative?

This is considered in the article I posted.

Re: New research shows social distancing a must to beat Covid-19

#12

Post by bproven »

duxup wrote: post #10
sojournerc wrote: post #4

> For every confirmed case of COVID-19, there are likely another five to 10 people with undetected infections. I wish this was reflected more in the numbers being presented by various authorities. There is just too much confidence that confirmed cases are representative of the spread of the virus. This unknown denominator can change mortality rate, and severe case rate by orders of magnitude. Because of the dearth of…

>There is just too much confidence that confirmed cases are representative of the spread of the virus. Is that really the case? I'm finding it to be pretty common knowledge that "confirmed cases" is simply just that.

Unfortunately, that is not how a lot of people think. Wish it was.

Furthermore, when you see that (larger) number it has a psychological effect of "this might be serious".

Re: New research shows social distancing a must to beat Covid-19

#13

Post by rubidium »

david_draco wrote: post #7
sojournerc wrote: post #4

> For every confirmed case of COVID-19, there are likely another five to 10 people with undetected infections. I wish this was reflected more in the numbers being presented by various authorities. There is just too much confidence that confirmed cases are representative of the spread of the virus. This unknown denominator can change mortality rate, and severe case rate by orders of magnitude. Because of the dearth of…

From the number of deaths you can crudely infer the number of infected, assuming the mortality on the Diamond princess and in South Korea (1%). Demographic effects are in play that don't make this quite right.

Totally agree. That’s the number I’ve been watching most to get a sense of how many total are infected for different regions e.g. 1 death today = 50-200 people were infected 2 weeks ago.

Re: New research shows social distancing a must to beat Covid-19

#14

Post by PappaPatat »

chrisa wrote: post #5
graton wrote: post #2

Am I the only one who would prefer the term "physical distancing". Social distancing seems open for confusion by people. Since when they say "social distancing" it seems to mean stay physically distant from each other.

One of the doctors on one of the press conferences (sorry, can't remember which one), said that she would prefer the term "physical distancing" as well for the same reason. She said that "social distancing" is a medical technical term that doesn't translate super well to the public.

> She said that "social distancing" is a medical technical term that doesn't translate super well to the public.

Which is 100% the opposite of what I in my daily life observe: everyone, young & old, private & work, calls it social distancing.

It addresses the issue better too, then the "proposed" physical distancing. When you pass people physically the (need and) possibility to keep that 2 meters is often impossible where as while socialising it very much is.

Re: New research shows social distancing a must to beat Covid-19

#15

Post by jamesrcole »

duxup wrote: post #10
sojournerc wrote: post #4

> For every confirmed case of COVID-19, there are likely another five to 10 people with undetected infections. I wish this was reflected more in the numbers being presented by various authorities. There is just too much confidence that confirmed cases are representative of the spread of the virus. This unknown denominator can change mortality rate, and severe case rate by orders of magnitude. Because of the dearth of…

>There is just too much confidence that confirmed cases are representative of the spread of the virus. Is that really the case? I'm finding it to be pretty common knowledge that "confirmed cases" is simply just that.

Another factor is that “confirmed cases” is very very frequently reported as just “cases”.

Re: New research shows social distancing a must to beat Covid-19

#16

Post by surfmike »

sojournerc wrote: post #4

> For every confirmed case of COVID-19, there are likely another five to 10 people with undetected infections. I wish this was reflected more in the numbers being presented by various authorities. There is just too much confidence that confirmed cases are representative of the spread of the virus. This unknown denominator can change mortality rate, and severe case rate by orders of magnitude. Because of the dearth of…

Hopefully serological tests will be widely available which would tell us if we’ve had it or not.

Re: New research shows social distancing a must to beat Covid-19

#18

Post by krzat »

anon102010 wrote: post #8

Fascinating that they recommend you take OFF masks while on things like crowded BART trains and airports (I had lots leftover from forest fires) if you are "healthy", even though that might mean you are asymptomatic, or not yet diagnosed etc. Despite claims masks (with good adherence to wearing) are highly effective - primarily by reducing hand to mouth/nose contact, secondarily as a direct barrier. And surgical mask…

Really? Where do they recommend this? Sounds insane.

Czech Republic recently started requiring face covers so we will have results in few weeks.

Re: New research shows social distancing a must to beat Covid-19

#19

Post by sojournerc »

surfmike wrote: post #16
sojournerc wrote: post #4

> For every confirmed case of COVID-19, there are likely another five to 10 people with undetected infections. I wish this was reflected more in the numbers being presented by various authorities. There is just too much confidence that confirmed cases are representative of the spread of the virus. This unknown denominator can change mortality rate, and severe case rate by orders of magnitude. Because of the dearth of…

Hopefully serological tests will be widely available which would tell us if we’ve had it or not.

Agreed.

That's the necessary data to know when we can start rolling back the extreme measures being taken to slow the spread.

We need a measure to detect herd immunity

Re: New research shows social distancing a must to beat Covid-19

#20

Post by SubiculumCode »

I really wish we had widespread testing, or even a test to see if you had COVID-19 in the past. Before we had all been so focused on this thing, my child's friend came back from China in December, and she had a upper respiratory illness with a fever. Then my whole family and I suffered under a low-grade fever and upper respiratory illness for a week or so in early January. I have no idea if it was COVID-19, but it is hard not to wonder.
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