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Risky Business: Interview with Marc Andreessen (2018)

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Re: Risky Business: Interview with Marc Andreessen (2018)

#11
Blue Origin was founded two years before SpaceX. Knowing only what was public around that time, would it be possible to predict which company would flourish? SpaceX seemed riskier, Musk was all-in and he had a string of spectacular launch failures. BO had the Amazon warchest at its disposal, SpaceX just Musk's personal funds. Both looked like jokes at the time to my aerospace colleagues.

Re: Risky Business: Interview with Marc Andreessen (2018)

#12

A huge issue here is that venture capital's classic business model isn't compatible with SpaceX-scale ventures because they take way too long to return value to investors. SpaceX took 6 years just to complete a demonstration flight to LEO, for instance, whereas a VC is looking for a liquidation event in the ~7 year timeframe.

I think VC game is evolving and there should be a group of VC investors or a chunk of VC money aiming at longer and riskier shots.

Re: Risky Business: Interview with Marc Andreessen (2018)

#13
post #4

Whenever I hear someone like Andreessen who is still a cryptocurrency believer, I go and really look for what he's talking about. I find nothing. I also have a routine search that I do when I look for something built on cryptocurrency or the cryptocurrency ecosystem (e.g. Ethereum "dapps") that I might want to actually use. I always come up empty handed. Yet there are many smart people that believe in this stuff. Are…

I am totally in your camp on this...I'm very interested in crypto from a technology standpoint, but I don't see any viable applications (other than those you mention) on the horizon. Also, I don't really believe "trustless" is possible, as close as blockchain may get. I'm not an expert here, but don't you still have to trust DNS, certificate issuers, code maintainers, etc.? Can't any of these be compromised with a bi…

The use cases that work best would be

- Slow transaction need

- Accounting-related items.

In my mind Supply Chain on a batch scale looks to be the the most promising area, but there don't seem to be many places that can't, or don't want to, manage this centrally. Ergo the network trust is not necessary.

dApps are promising, but why add the extra expense?

Re: Risky Business: Interview with Marc Andreessen (2018)

#14
To me, the next great challenge of our time isn't finding the next SpaceX, but gradually dismantling the corporate dogma of full employment. The short-term goals should be along the lines of getting to a 30-hour work week, a single-payer healthcare system, free college and UBI from an automation moonshot.

The long-term goals should be about how to get everyone in the world self-actualized, but doing it sustainably so we don't destroy the planet in the process. We'll be on renewable energy by 2030, but the real destruction is happening due to manufacturing that we don't actually need. Getting demand flipped so that we can get to a sustainable or non-growth based economy is going to be tricky and may not happen before 2040-2050 as the singularity looms.

My dream for this would look like a 20-hour or less work week, with a great deal more capital available at the bottom with near-zero or negative interest rates. Young people would train for a few years in something like a peace corps doing the difficult work that nobody wants to do, then use the life skills they've learned to eliminate those hardships for everyone else going forward. Their degree or equivalent certificates would go towards hard disciplines, advancing things like medicine where devotion and commitment to a large organization is actually required.

But the rest of their time would be spent in their own endeavors in the humanities or working in maker spaces to invent new things. That's where the real innovation will come from. So instead of a the next SpaceX requiring $300 million, it will just need a few people with access to shared computing resources so they can iterate unfettered by the time suck of the workaday world.

We can look towards Star Trek for inspiration. In the meantime, I expect everything to go the opposite direction from the way I suggested, just like it has been for the last 20 years. We'll see more wealth inequality, more disenfranchisement, more neocolonialism. Unfortunately it's probably going to get worse before it gets better. But in spite of that, we can still envision the dream and work to manifest change locally in our own lives, as we plant seeds of hope globally.

Re: Risky Business: Interview with Marc Andreessen (2018)

#16

Blue Origin was founded two years before SpaceX. Knowing only what was public around that time, would it be possible to predict which company would flourish? SpaceX seemed riskier, Musk was all-in and he had a string of spectacular launch failures. BO had the Amazon warchest at its disposal, SpaceX just Musk's personal funds. Both looked like jokes at the time to my aerospace colleagues.

> would it be possible to predict which company would flourish?

I'd say both have good chances. I'm actually surprised BO doesn't have better achievements by now.

> Both looked like jokes at the time to my aerospace colleagues.

I assume some aerospace professionals still consider them jokes, which weights on definition of professional. But SpaceX really does things differently - the pioneers of space era (like von Braun, Korolev) could, I'm sure, understand Musk, but aerospace professionals of 1990-2000 were trained in rather different world.

Re: Risky Business: Interview with Marc Andreessen (2018)

#17
post #15

We need new staged financing models for projects like this. $500mm for x project, released upon these pre agreed milestones. Like the way it works in large scale infrastructure or some construction financing.

This is similar to what Eric Reis outlines as an innovation financing model in his book "The Startup Way": https://www.amazon.com/Startup-Way-Companies-Entrepreneurial...

*No affiliation. Just thought that his innovation financing and accounting models were the most interesting part of the book.

Re: Risky Business: Interview with Marc Andreessen (2018)

#18
post #4

Whenever I hear someone like Andreessen who is still a cryptocurrency believer, I go and really look for what he's talking about. I find nothing. I also have a routine search that I do when I look for something built on cryptocurrency or the cryptocurrency ecosystem (e.g. Ethereum "dapps") that I might want to actually use. I always come up empty handed. Yet there are many smart people that believe in this stuff. Are…

Shouldn't the blockchain be the best approach to handle public goverment data?

I mean, project requirements to build infrastructures, for the private sector companies to bid. The results of those adjudications. Civil servants payroll and bonuses...

That would mean no suspicios document shredding when a new party enters the goverment. An open standard way for everybody to access the data. Even different applications on top of those databases.

Setting aside political considerations, what would be the drawbacks of this approach?

Re: Risky Business: Interview with Marc Andreessen (2018)

#19
I'm kind of more interested in the political system that the first Martian base-camp will adhere to .. and how it will be organised at a socio-economic level - are the first Martians going to have economy based on Access to Earth, etc?

I know its at least 20 - 50 years away from being any kind of reality, but surely there are smart people working on this problem. What's to stop Elons' Martian crew from mutiny and sedition .. a firm dependence on Earth?

Should we, therefore, go there before we get a chance to be independent as a colony - clearly there is as lot more work to be done on the subject of a self-sufficient colony, but how is that going to work out economically and socially, I wonder?

Doesn't seem to me to be getting enough attention. Or, are there existing structures and organisational models that would be exported to the Mars colony?

Startups on Mars? Free oxygen and access to the Starship hub for anyone who wants to colonise?

Re: Risky Business: Interview with Marc Andreessen (2018)

#20

To me, the next great challenge of our time isn't finding the next SpaceX, but gradually dismantling the corporate dogma of full employment. The short-term goals should be along the lines of getting to a 30-hour work week, a single-payer healthcare system, free college and UBI from an automation moonshot. The long-term goals should be about how to get everyone in the world self-actualized, but doing it sustainably so…

I wonder if we can re-purpose our [computer] networking jargon to network humans. Since in biology the function is what drives maintenance and upgrades simply using peoples thoughts (like yours) will expand the ability. (also by example, monkey see monkey do) Perhaps something like supper nodes could produce passable data sets.
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