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Data Submitted by the Italian Civil Defense on COVID19 in Italy, Updated Daily

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Re: Data Submitted by the Italian Civil Defense on COVID19 in Italy, Updated Daily

#11

Unless you have a very weak immune system or you are an elderly (50+) I wouldn't worry to much about this.

They need to create new IC beds at a rate of 200 per day right now. If you have anything else that requires IC, like say a ruptured appendix, you're just as dead if there are no beds than if you had ncov19.

Also, I still have one parent and don't want to lose her.

Re: Data Submitted by the Italian Civil Defense on COVID19 in Italy, Updated Daily

#12

Unless you have a very weak immune system or you are an elderly (50+) I wouldn't worry to much about this.

More than one third of the Italian population is 50+, so if you are Italian there is probably reason to worry

Re: Data Submitted by the Italian Civil Defense on COVID19 in Italy, Updated Daily

#13

Unless you have a very weak immune system or you are an elderly (50+) I wouldn't worry to much about this.

do you really think that Italy and China wanted to put a stop to their economic activity with quarantines for no reason?

Sometimes politicians look good for having "done something" because there is no counterfactual to compare against to create accountability.

Re: Data Submitted by the Italian Civil Defense on COVID19 in Italy, Updated Daily

#14
The rumor among the US health industry is they are licking their chops they are going to make a bundle off this virus, causing millions more to go into bankruptcy - - the 5% who end up in ICU on ventilators without insurance, hospitals are already lining up their ducks, remember there are only only a finite set of ventilators at every hospital, when full up, it will be like "pay us $20,000 first and we will reserve a place for you" next up.

Don't think it will happen ? Guess again, take a look at M.D. Anderson in Houston, most famous cancer treatment facility. Few years ago they started admittance only on CASH UP FRONT, like serious cash down payment.

Re: Data Submitted by the Italian Civil Defense on COVID19 in Italy, Updated Daily

#15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

do you really think that Italy and China wanted to put a stop to their economic activity with quarantines for no reason?

Sometimes politicians look good for having "done something" because there is no counterfactual to compare against to create accountability.

Well China has cut their number of cases so they did something that worked.

Re: Data Submitted by the Italian Civil Defense on COVID19 in Italy, Updated Daily

#16

Bear in mind that the totals may "look odd": they are cumulative totals of current cases + deaths + recovered.

All sources I've seen so far have been showing primarily that cumulative, so it's not odd, it's standard.

Re: Data Submitted by the Italian Civil Defense on COVID19 in Italy, Updated Daily

#17

Unless you have a very weak immune system or you are an elderly (50+) I wouldn't worry to much about this.

Beyond the aspect that you probably have relatives that are 50+, observe how countries try to limit the spread of the virus, and consider what it does to the economy. And what it will do to your local economy.

All of us will suffer from this virus one way or another, even those who manage to avoid catching the disease itself.

Re: Data Submitted by the Italian Civil Defense on COVID19 in Italy, Updated Daily

#20

What I don’t understand is why the US still doesn’t have widespread testing. If the government lifted restrictions on testing and let people other than CDC and health authorities test for it, most research hospitals and universities (and many other private labs) would be able to test for this disease very easily. The reagents are commercially available, and most other countries are rolling out (or have already rolled…

People are not getting to the bottom of this. Virus goes from one host to the other via the means of aerosol/droplet particulates. There is some evidence that it can stay "active" while on a surface such as a door knob.

Everything else is external.

So, whether you test or not, the fundamentals of aforementined mechanism most likely won't change. Cleaning public areas with disinfectant, educating the public of detailed ways of how this virus spreads (I mean really detailed information... not just what the media is doing currently) and doing everything to make sure there is no shortage of sanitizing supplies.

I can't seem to find exact details of experiments or academic research on how this virus mechanically moves from one body to the other. No newspaper is publishing information about it. Turns out a lot of academic jargon can be explained to laymen if you have someone like Feynman write an article. So, if we can understand the precise mechanism of spread, we can bring down the R value close to 1 or below slowing down the exponential growth.

If there is a probablistic aspect to the containment strategy, say for example, no matter what contingencies we put in place, no matter how clean the society gets, there is always some probability of propagation. That means we're not trying hard enough to understand the virus propagation and to enforce containment procedures. Ultimate goal would be to a get vaccine invented and distributed.

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