I’d like to see some defense budget diverted to create a bigger surplus of availability of other resources, like medical infrastructure. Give hospitals a double tax write off for empty beds, or some other clever incentive to ensure that they don’t try to run at exactly capacity all the time.
Why we need worst-case thinking to prevent pandemics
11–17 of 17 posts
Re: Why we need worst-case thinking to prevent pandemics
#12There is a real question here about whether we can sustain the sort of sprawling, interconnected, JIT supply chain that has been set up in the last 20 years and also whether our international travel patterns are sustainable.
The speed with which COVID-19 got to pretty much everywhere is stunning. If the death rate was more in line with, eg, the Black Death it would be interesting to see what happened to food & other supplies in the major cities.
Hopefully there is some principle that a virus can't jump between species that is both infectious, deadly and slow to show symptoms after becoming infectious.
Re: Why we need worst-case thinking to prevent pandemics
#13For bacteria, antibiotic resistance is a big deal and aggravated by routine oversubscribing and meat agriculture. We need more antibiotics and phages quickly. For fungi and yeast, there aren't enough antimycotics and they too are overused. We need more antimycotics and phages quickly also. For viruses, meat agriculture, forest destruction and urban sprawl are contributory factors leading to faster mutations and jumpi…
>For viruses, meat agriculture, forest destruction and urban sprawl are contributory factors leading to faster mutations and jumping species eventually into us. At this point you have to acknowledge that cultural factors are responsible for the majority of modern outbreaks. We know about the meat markets in China. They are as endemic as the viruses to the various animals they eat. No other country on Earth has origin…
> No other country on Earth has originated this many animal to human outbreaks.
I am ignorant, what is the data here? Which animal-to-human outbreaks are we counting?
The top animal-derived epidemics I can think of would be: SARS and 2019-nCoV from china, H1N1 had mixed heritage, MERS seemed to come from the middle east, Ebola and HIV from africa. So, pretty spread out?
Also, China is substantially larger than everything else but India, so wouldn't this be an expected outcome anyway?
Re: Why we need worst-case thinking to prevent pandemics
#14This is why it's so important that we do everything in our power to achieve a "societal backup" by expanding to at least one more planet. At a grander level, this is what Elon Musk, SpaceX, and other related endeavors are all about. Humans are terrible at considering and planning for large-scale, exponential, and extinction-level events ala pandemics, nuclear holocaust, and the long term effects of climate change. Th…
Elon Musk's endeavors are more about vanity, I think. I found all the twitter antics to be quite odd for someone in his position.
Re: Why we need worst-case thinking to prevent pandemics
#15Earlier quoted context omitted.
>For viruses, meat agriculture, forest destruction and urban sprawl are contributory factors leading to faster mutations and jumping species eventually into us. At this point you have to acknowledge that cultural factors are responsible for the majority of modern outbreaks. We know about the meat markets in China. They are as endemic as the viruses to the various animals they eat. No other country on Earth has origin…
> No other country on Earth has originated this many animal to human outbreaks. I am ignorant, what is the data here? Which animal-to-human outbreaks are we counting? The top animal-derived epidemics I can think of would be: SARS and 2019-nCoV from china, H1N1 had mixed heritage, MERS seemed to come from the middle east, Ebola and HIV from africa. So, pretty spread out? Also, China is substantially larger than everyt…
For decades it's been reported in the US press that the seasonal flu outbreak comes from small farms raising pigs in rural China.
So start by googling that for each year.
Re: Why we need worst-case thinking to prevent pandemics
#16In 2010, my home of Christchurch has a serious earthquake. In 2011, it suffered another far more serious earthquake. The 1st one provided a full dress rehearsal for the 2nd one. I wonder of the same will be said for pandemics? Coronavirus is by no means a dystopian apocalypse. But it could be an opportunity to help us learn to prevent one. My concern is around the cost benefit analysis from the perspective of elected…
> I wonder of the same will be said for pandemics?
It does.
Hong Kong experienced SARS in 2003. The pandemics hit the city hardly [1], infected almost 2000, taking a hundred lives, of which several are medical practitioners.
This time Hong Kong citizens sounded alarm as early as mid-December. They advocated locking down the border from Mainlanders in mid January [2]. The dysfunctional Government was completely oblivious to the situation until at least mid Feb. But the people with vivid memory of SARS took the situation seriously. Mask were used almost ubiquitously in late Jan. Hand sanitizers are equipped by everyone.
It is a stark contrast compared with expat or new mainland immigrants.
1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002%E2%80%9304_SARS_outbreak#...
2. The dates are recalled from memory, from conversation with HK friends. So take the dates with handful of salt
Re: Why we need worst-case thinking to prevent pandemics
#17This is why it's so important that we do everything in our power to achieve a "societal backup" by expanding to at least one more planet. At a grander level, this is what Elon Musk, SpaceX, and other related endeavors are all about. Humans are terrible at considering and planning for large-scale, exponential, and extinction-level events ala pandemics, nuclear holocaust, and the long term effects of climate change. Th…
There is no point in having a "backup copy" of society when we're dead. Colonizing Mars would only help the tiny minority that lives there. All efforts are better spent here on Earth.