Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now • Hacker News Board

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#11

Post by asdfasgasdgasdg » Sun, Feb 23, 2020, 3:25 PM UTC

We will see. The graphs of numbers of confirmed infected all seem to be bending down, but of course there's the possibility of biases like unreleased numbers and incomplete testing. I guess we will know in a few weeks which direction it is going to go.

That being said, with death being so rare among the young, I don't see why most people should panic more than they do about flu season. Obviously it is a serious concern, but I think on the extremes there is a bit more alarmism than is warranted. Of course, those same sensational articles are going to be the ones that get upvoted on social media sites like this one. I remember when the avian influenza scare was on how many end of the world articles there were. Not that it wasn't a pressing concern but it seems like these types of situations capture the public's imagination and fears a little more than is justified by the facts on the ground.

Also keep in mind that this message is coming from a "risk communication expert" who probably gets more exposure and therefore more business the more extreme their predictions are. Are they actually privy to any information or knowledge the other experts aren't aware of? Do they have any skin in the game at all when they make this prediction? Consider the source is all I'm saying.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#12

Post by ianai » Sun, Feb 23, 2020, 3:25 PM UTC

contemporary343 wrote: post #3

The lack of testing and testing capacity in the US is deeply alarming. They’ve only run 500 tests so far and criteria still require the patient to have recently traveled from Hubei! By comparison South Korea is running thousands of tests per day, which is why it is picking up so many cases. Absolutely unforgivable complacency and lack of transparency from CDC. There is almost certainly community spreading in the US t…

Should you be blaming the CDC or the political environment writ large for the last decade?

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#13

Post by bpfrh » Sun, Feb 23, 2020, 3:25 PM UTC

There is a video which compares that to other causes of deaths and other "pandemics":

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dDD2tHWWnU

Please stop threating the virus as if we would all die.

The things you have in the article should be the things you should do anyway:

-No touching your face, is something you should stop anyway, as the flu will also kill you if you have bad luck and it is the same problem

-Having certain things prepared in case there is a local emergency is a good idea anyway, but the recommandation at least in austria is about 10-14 days, so I hope most of the people already have that.

-Supply chains won't break down because of such a virus, just as it didn't because of the swineflu and other things.

-If supply chains break down, we have more than the coronavirus to worry about.

edit:

Pressed submit to soon

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#14

Post by jacquesm » Sun, Feb 23, 2020, 3:26 PM UTC

joak wrote: post #2

In the preparation list, scaling ICU is most needed. A lot of people survived thank to intensive care units. There might not be enough to cope with the peak

That 'might' is probably safely replace with 'are'. No country - even the richest - is prepared to deal with this many ICU cases. For instance in the UK (which has a very good healthcare system) there are about 6k ICU beds on a population of ~65 million.

And then there is the risk of having ICU personnel become infected themselves. This is not a trivial challenge.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#15

Post by popotamonga » Sun, Feb 23, 2020, 3:26 PM UTC

pyk wrote: post #9

Recommendations for what individuals can do are buried but very practical: * Try to get a few extra months’ worth of prescription meds, if possible. * Think through now how we will take care of sick family members while trying not to get infected. Cross-train key staff at work so one person’s absence won’t derail our organization’s ability to function. * Practice touching our faces less. So how about a face-counter a…

Is hand saniziter any good, for when you touched the wrong places?

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#16

Post by popotamonga » Sun, Feb 23, 2020, 3:27 PM UTC

patagonicus wrote: post #7

As Hacker News is usually full of people that can provide good advice: What should I personally do to prepare? I'm living alone and have the ability to work remotely once the virus starts spreading here. My guess is mostly stocking up on food, which I've planned to do for a long time - sounds like a good motivation to finally prepare a list and get shopping. Should I bother with a N95 mask? I already have surgical ma…

The mask is good to train to not touch the face.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#17

Post by ianai » Sun, Feb 23, 2020, 3:27 PM UTC

pyk wrote: post #9

Recommendations for what individuals can do are buried but very practical: * Try to get a few extra months’ worth of prescription meds, if possible. * Think through now how we will take care of sick family members while trying not to get infected. Cross-train key staff at work so one person’s absence won’t derail our organization’s ability to function. * Practice touching our faces less. So how about a face-counter a…

Wish getting meds in advance were more accessible.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#18

Post by deevolution » Sun, Feb 23, 2020, 3:27 PM UTC

pyk wrote: post #9

Recommendations for what individuals can do are buried but very practical: * Try to get a few extra months’ worth of prescription meds, if possible. * Think through now how we will take care of sick family members while trying not to get infected. Cross-train key staff at work so one person’s absence won’t derail our organization’s ability to function. * Practice touching our faces less. So how about a face-counter a…

I think we should replace handshakes with bows, but that would probably never fly in America.

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#19

Post by popotamonga » Sun, Feb 23, 2020, 3:28 PM UTC

asdfasgasdgasdg wrote: post #11

We will see. The graphs of numbers of confirmed infected all seem to be bending down, but of course there's the possibility of biases like unreleased numbers and incomplete testing. I guess we will know in a few weeks which direction it is going to go. That being said, with death being so rare among the young, I don't see why most people should panic more than they do about flu season. Obviously it is a serious conce…

Most have older family no?

Re: Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

#20

Post by jacquesm » Sun, Feb 23, 2020, 3:28 PM UTC

bpfrh wrote: post #13

There is a video which compares that to other causes of deaths and other "pandemics": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dDD2tHWWnU Please stop threating the virus as if we would all die. The things you have in the article should be the things you should do anyway: -No touching your face, is something you should stop anyway, as the flu will also kill you if you have bad luck and it is the same problem -Having certain t…

No, we won't all die. But the impact will be substantial if the infections are not brought under control.

Just like not everybody dies from many other diseases such as the flu. The difference here is that it also hits hard on otherwise healthy people and that healthcare workers are very much exposed to infection. If that front line does not hold it can get worse rapidly.

Western countries with good medicine and infrastructure in place stand a chance of riding this out with just (possibly substantial) economic impact. Poor countries are in for a rough ride. Check out what is happening in Iran right now (which your linked video conveniently leaves out, possibly because it does not fit their narrative).

Mortality rates around 2-5% for a pandemic are nothing to sneeze at, infection rates in close proximity are very high making it hard to care for those that are showing symptoms and put high density population centers at serious risk.