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Investor update on quarterly guidance

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Re: Investor update on quarterly guidance

#11

What other companies do you expect will be impacted in a similar way?

I’d expect anything that is manufactured in China to be in a similar situation. POs have already extended out significantly (some of our parts have more than doubled). Those estimates are at best guesses, I would be surprised if they don’t continue to slip. Manufacturing supply chains are at incredibly low levels. The second reason (slow sales in China) would really only affect things that are there, obviously.

Totally. Regardless of whether its China or some other place on earth, almost complete centralization of manufacturing supply chain from teddy bears to cold rolled steel and everything in the middle; we're gonna have a bad time. Now if that said country offers nothing in return in terms of fairness, flat-out bans foreign business from competing, subsidizing national corporations in return for citizen information, ruled by an authoritarian regime with fascist underpinnings, and has a public health emergency; boy we're headed towards a recession until the rest of the world equips with multiple points of failure in their supply chain. I am sure this small dip will lead to unoptimization of local optima and leads us into a stronger future where there is fair competition, stronger supply chain, and efficient international trade.

I am sorry to bring up political aspects, but I hope it only portrays the objective state of the situation without any prejudicial color.

Re: Investor update on quarterly guidance

#12
post #9

I am surprised the stock market is holding up while the virus can have a big impact in world trade. Any guesses ?

I'm guessing that AAPL March call option I bought is going to take a beating tomorrow morning. AAPL saying, "we ain't gonna make our numbers" might be enough to start to drag on NASDAQ a bit. Worse, perhaps it will start some closer examinations of other supply chains.

Re: Investor update on quarterly guidance

#13
post #9

I am surprised the stock market is holding up while the virus can have a big impact in world trade. Any guesses ?

The trump trade policies (specifically, the China tariffs) have reduced the exposure of many US firms to Chinese goods. A lot of factories shifted to Vietnam and other SE Asian countries. Europe is already showing early red flags in their stock indexes, due to their closer ties to China.

If COVID-19 spreads further throughout SE Asia unchecked, expect the SP500 to catch up with reality in a hurry.

Re: Investor update on quarterly guidance

#14
post #9

I am surprised the stock market is holding up while the virus can have a big impact in world trade. Any guesses ?

The trump trade policies (specifically, the China tariffs) have reduced the exposure of many US firms to Chinese goods. A lot of factories shifted to Vietnam and other SE Asian countries. Europe is already showing early red flags in their stock indexes, due to their closer ties to China. If COVID-19 spreads further throughout SE Asia unchecked, expect the SP500 to catch up with reality in a hurry.

Would it be better or worse for China if the disease spread to countries that compete with it economically? If it helps China at all, would China be able to resist the temptation to allow infected individuals to travel to those countries?

Re: Investor update on quarterly guidance

#15
The Chinese New Year, Jan 17 through Feb 8, is also a period where less manufacturing activity normally occurs. Why I know this? I had to plan our inventory and sales logistics around this period every year for seven years. We would order production so that it would be completed and shipped to us prior to Chinese New Year, or start production immediately after. We never wanted production to occur across the three week down period.

I strongly suspect that large company logistics team, and certainly an expert like Tim Cook, already have this contingency in place. However, since CV has extended beyond the New Years time frame, those contingency plans will start to break down.

Re: Investor update on quarterly guidance

#18
post #9

I am surprised the stock market is holding up while the virus can have a big impact in world trade. Any guesses ?

Only a few companies reported any material impact because of coronavirus. I recall SBUX, NKE, UA reporting decreased sales in the 1st quarter of 2020 during their Q4 2019 earnings calls.

AAPL is the first “big” company to report an impact. Check out /NQ and /ES in 16 minutes if you want to find out, I’d wager NQ will gap down .5% and ES will gap down .25% in the ETH session tonight. As to where they go from there, I’m betting on 3400 (with actual money)

Re: Investor update on quarterly guidance

#19
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The trump trade policies (specifically, the China tariffs) have reduced the exposure of many US firms to Chinese goods. A lot of factories shifted to Vietnam and other SE Asian countries. Europe is already showing early red flags in their stock indexes, due to their closer ties to China. If COVID-19 spreads further throughout SE Asia unchecked, expect the SP500 to catch up with reality in a hurry.

Would it be better or worse for China if the disease spread to countries that compete with it economically? If it helps China at all, would China be able to resist the temptation to allow infected individuals to travel to those countries?

Well, I suppose in terms of comparative advantage, misery loves company, so better. In terms of absolute number of people with rice in their bowl on any given day, I suspect worse.
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