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Predicting where AI is going in 2020

venturebeat.com

11–20 of 88 posts

Re: Predicting where AI is going in 2020

#11

Natural language processing is going to absolutely decimate content on the internet, forcing everyone into walled gardens

Via seo spam and other types of spam that are indistinguishable from real content?

Probably more likely hitting that annoying point that you cannot be quite sure is article machine-generated lorem ipsum which sounds convincing but does not have any real information behind it. something like http://news.mit.edu/2015/how-three-mit-students-fooled-scien... but with scale.

Re: Predicting where AI is going in 2020

#12
post #9

>Human babies don’t get tagged data sets, yet they manage just fine, and it’s important for us to understand how that happens I do not really understand this. Human babies get a constant stream of labeled information from their parents. Contextualized speech is being fed to them for years. Toddlers repeat everything you say. Is this referring to something else that babies can do?

I agree with you -- we have little idea how much labeled information is encoded in the genome either.

I rather like to think of the genome as the most well trained model of life we have access to.

Re: Predicting where AI is going in 2020

#14

Natural language processing is going to absolutely decimate content on the internet, forcing everyone into walled gardens

Unless walled gardens bring in mechanisms that bring a real cost to the table for creating content, such as limitations on posts and account creation, they would be in the same boat.

In either system users can go to a strict whitelisting approach but that would com at a cost of discoverability and serendipity. This would strengthen the position of anointed 'influencers' and curators, and diminish the value of algorithmic feeds so eating into the revenue model of those that rely on this.

Since those forces are counteracting it is hard to make predictions, but I will anyway but take it with a strong dose of uncertainty.

My dystopian take is the ubiquitous deployment of 'fake' actors will further undermine the general inter-human levels of trust. Evolutionary less fragile altruistic strategies rely on unfakable or at least costly signals to stand up to the 'free-rider' intrusion. Sadly undermining trust will accelerate the further descend into identity tribalism we are already witnessing today, a segregation into near-immutable trait based groups where cross-clan transgressions are punished with extreme measures. As a caricature think of the television portrayal of tribal gang cultures in maximum security prisons.

My utopian take is that the onslaught of fake noise will restore the reliance on offline contacts and connections. Due to physical proximity these offline groups have to share more of the negative externalities caused by their actions which could lead to more altruistic consideration in consumption and production descisioning. Direct verifyable contribution and impact might trump systemic distrust and lead us out of the current innate identity tribal descend.

Re: Predicting where AI is going in 2020

#15

Re: PyTorch TPU support, has anyone checked it out beyond "it works"? There are many aspects of TPUs that I'm not convinced are easy to port: Colocating gradient ops, scoping operation to specific TPU cores, choosing to run operations in a mode that can use all available TPU memory (which is up to 300GB in some cases), and so on. These aren't small features. If you don't have them, you don't get TPU speed. The reason…

Minor remark:

"With a snippet of your voice and a few selfies, you'll be able to create a fairly realistic representation of yourself as the main hero of e.g. a Final Fantasy 7 type game. "

Extrapolating from FB/Instagram I would wager a 'fairly realistic' representation while technically an option will be shunned by most in favor of a 'fairly idealized' representation or alternatively some sort of myopically polarized extreme trait representation.

Re: Predicting where AI is going in 2020

#18
I believe we will (1) find some basic data structures and algorithms to do real AI. (2) At first it will be able to do I/O only via text or simple voice. (3) Due to (1) it will learn very quickly from humans or other sources. (4) Soon it will be genuinely smart, enough, say, to discover and prove new theorems in math, to understand physics and propose new research directions, to understand drama and write good screen plays, to understand various styles and cases of music and compose for those, etc.

Broadly from (1) with the data structures it will be able to represent and store data and, then, from the algorithms, manipulate that data generating more data to be stored, etc.

In particular it will be able to do well with thought experiments and generation and evaluation of scenarios.

Good image understanding will come later but only a little later; the ideas in (1) may have to be revised to do well on image understanding.

Re: Predicting where AI is going in 2020

#19

The linked page threw up a suspicious looking overlay. I left the site, too bad since I wrote a blog with my predictions last night and wanted to compare my AI predictions.

If you use Firefox, just enable "Reader View" for the site (just hit F9). Removes all the crud around the page and just shows the text and required images.
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