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Predictions for 2020–2029

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11–20 of 35 posts

Re: Predictions for 2020–2029

#11
The section on Nationalism indicates to me that we're heading towards a period of major, great-power conflict. I could see it being a lot of smaller, officially unrelated wars or one big one.

Since WW2 we have enjoyed the longest ever period without direct conflict between great powers. How much longer can we expect this to last?

Re: Predictions for 2020–2029

#12
post #5

I predict the vast majority of people will never again understand that new decades, centuries, and millenia begin on January 1st of years ending in '1' and not '0' because there never was a Year 0. Everyone knew that 50 years ago, which is why Kubrick didn't call it '2000: A Space Odyssey.'

The 21st century is 2001-2100 because we count them and the first century was 1-100 (there is no 0AD).

But nobody refers to decades as the nth decade. We in fact refer to them by their leading digit. So no, it’s the 20s again.

Re: Predictions for 2020–2029

#13
post #5

I predict the vast majority of people will never again understand that new decades, centuries, and millenia begin on January 1st of years ending in '1' and not '0' because there never was a Year 0. Everyone knew that 50 years ago, which is why Kubrick didn't call it '2000: A Space Odyssey.'

It seems very arbitrary to go against the public's common assumption on this one.

Re: Predictions for 2020–2029

#14
post #5

I predict the vast majority of people will never again understand that new decades, centuries, and millenia begin on January 1st of years ending in '1' and not '0' because there never was a Year 0. Everyone knew that 50 years ago, which is why Kubrick didn't call it '2000: A Space Odyssey.'

If you refer to this decade as the 2020's, then it's stupid to say the 2020's refer to 2021-2030.

Re: Predictions for 2020–2029

#16
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's the 20's, deal with it.

It is 20s, but not a new decade :) See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decade

You all are correct but no one cares. Numbers ending with 0 is what gets attention. Going back to the year 1 doesn't add much anyway since we are pretty sure that the count of years since the birth of Jesus (whoever he was historically) is off.

Re: Predictions for 2020–2029

#17

> People are scared and want their leaders to protect their jobs from foreign competition. It's not 'competition' that people are afraid of, it is unfair government intervention and tariffs. The idea with Trump's trade wars is that if a country imposes tariff's on US goods, the US will respond in kind until those tariff's are removed and fair competition is restored. Whether or not this is actually happening in pract…

My understanding is that Trump's trade war was apart of the America First economic policy to reduce the US trade deficit. This had the added benefit of making manufacturing more viable in the US.

Re: Predictions for 2020–2029

#18

The section on Nationalism indicates to me that we're heading towards a period of major, great-power conflict. I could see it being a lot of smaller, officially unrelated wars or one big one. Since WW2 we have enjoyed the longest ever period without direct conflict between great powers. How much longer can we expect this to last?

The difference in great power wars since WW2 is we now have nuclear weapons (yes apart from the bombing of Japan). As long as we fight proxy wars (Vietnam, Syria) then we haven't used them, but I can't see a war between for example the US and China over Taiwan or European states and Russia not devolving into nuclear war very quickly.

Re: Predictions for 2020–2029

#19
post #18

The section on Nationalism indicates to me that we're heading towards a period of major, great-power conflict. I could see it being a lot of smaller, officially unrelated wars or one big one. Since WW2 we have enjoyed the longest ever period without direct conflict between great powers. How much longer can we expect this to last?

The difference in great power wars since WW2 is we now have nuclear weapons (yes apart from the bombing of Japan). As long as we fight proxy wars (Vietnam, Syria) then we haven't used them, but I can't see a war between for example the US and China over Taiwan or European states and Russia not devolving into nuclear war very quickly.

How long can nuclear weapons be kept without being used?

We are as close as ever to nuclear war according to the doomsday clock, just two minutes to midnight.

Re: Predictions for 2020–2029

#20
Regarding the section "The World is on Fire": The farmers protests recently in Berlin were a normal expressions of freedom to demonstrate in Germany. Not much to worry about, and a sign of a healthy democracy.
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