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Peter Schiff: "In many ways, it's going to be worse than the Depression."

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Re: Peter Schiff: "In many ways, it's going to be worse than the Depression."

#11

Post by Prrometheus »

tptacek wrote: post #2

How seriously do you take someone who advocates for the dissolution of the Federal Reserve? Pronouncements like this are kind of this guy's schtick.

I advocate for the dissolution of the Federal Reserve. The world had very stable interest rates and inflation rates before the institution of fiat monopoly money (monopoly as in the sense of only one legal producer, but the other connotation works as well). If you knew that the interest rate on 10-yr AAA bonds was going to be within +/- 0.5% a year from now, don't you think that would make it easier to do business? Instead, we have a system where next year is +/- ~4.0%.

People point out other drawbacks of the free banking and classical gold standard eras, and I agree that the systems had their problems. However, they were also working with a much smaller and less technological economy. In addition, they were hampered with idiotic anti-banking laws (such as unitary branching), most of which have been repealed today.

I don't think we need a price-setter on the short term credit markets, and I don't think we need legal monopoly money. I don't think the arguments for the market break down in the monetary sphere.

Anti-Fed people might not always state their case well, but that doesn't mean there is not a good case. There are a few Nobel's among the gold bugs.

Re: Peter Schiff: "In many ways, it's going to be worse than the Depression."

#12

Post by kingkongrevenge »

hugh wrote: post #9

OK, I'm getting pretty bored of the Everybody Panic articles. Who keeps voting them up? I always pick up some books every time someone is giving them away for free. One of my favourites (which I unfortunately left in my old office) is called something like "The Great Depression of the 1990s" (publication date: 1989) and warns us all how terrible the 1990s are going to be.

> Who keeps voting them up?

Perhaps economically literate people who agree with the arguments? Schiff is a little on the alarmist side, but it takes a megaphone to be heard over the geyser of bull-tard propaganda that dominates popular business discussion. You get ahead in America by joining the rah-rah chorus and people just don't want to hear bad news.

> Everybody Panic articles.

Schiff is very positive and bullish on certain countries and certain sectors. "Everybody panic" is not his theme; it's "US citizens should panic." If you paid attention to him six years ago and panicked, and moved out of USD denominated assets you're something like 50% richer than your neighbors. So who's being irrational?

> "The Great Depression of the 1990s"

What's your point? Various idiots make bad predictions all the time? So what? Might as well mention "Dow 30000". Schiff isn't an idiot. His arguments are sound.

Re: Peter Schiff: "In many ways, it's going to be worse than the Depression."

#13

Post by davidw »

kingkongrevenge wrote: post #12
hugh wrote: post #9

OK, I'm getting pretty bored of the Everybody Panic articles. Who keeps voting them up? I always pick up some books every time someone is giving them away for free. One of my favourites (which I unfortunately left in my old office) is called something like "The Great Depression of the 1990s" (publication date: 1989) and warns us all how terrible the 1990s are going to be.

> Who keeps voting them up? Perhaps economically literate people who agree with the arguments? Schiff is a little on the alarmist side, but it takes a megaphone to be heard over the geyser of bull-tard propaganda that dominates popular business discussion. You get ahead in America by joining the rah-rah chorus and people just don't want to hear bad news. > Everybody Panic articles. Schiff is very positive and bullish…

> Perhaps economically literate people who agree with the arguments

... for some odd values of "economically literate", and who haven't caught on that this site is not for the discussion of one's pet economic and political theories.

Re: Peter Schiff: "In many ways, it's going to be worse than the Depression."

#14

Post by kingkongrevenge »

davidw wrote: post #13
kingkongrevenge wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Who keeps voting them up? Perhaps economically literate people who agree with the arguments? Schiff is a little on the alarmist side, but it takes a megaphone to be heard over the geyser of bull-tard propaganda that dominates popular business discussion. You get ahead in America by joining the rah-rah chorus and people just don't want to hear bad news. > Everybody Panic articles. Schiff is very positive and bullish…

> Perhaps economically literate people who agree with the arguments ... for some odd values of "economically literate", and who haven't caught on that this site is not for the discussion of one's pet economic and political theories.

If this post is off topic then so are almost all of pg's essays.

Re: Peter Schiff: "In many ways, it's going to be worse than the Depression."

#15

Post by ajross »

tptacek wrote: post #2

How seriously do you take someone who advocates for the dissolution of the Federal Reserve? Pronouncements like this are kind of this guy's schtick.

This kind of thing is a standard trope of investment news. Some market somewhere moves unexpectedly, so some journalist finds an analyst who predicted it and writes a story on "how they knew". It's a giant game of confirmation bias at work.

That doesn't, by the way, mean that we aren't in for a rough few years (although depression-era hunger lines seem a step or nine too far to me). It just means that this guy doesn't statistically know any better than we do. He was just lucky.

Re: Peter Schiff: "In many ways, it's going to be worse than the Depression."

#17

Post by sabat »

kingkongrevenge wrote: post #12
hugh wrote: post #9

OK, I'm getting pretty bored of the Everybody Panic articles. Who keeps voting them up? I always pick up some books every time someone is giving them away for free. One of my favourites (which I unfortunately left in my old office) is called something like "The Great Depression of the 1990s" (publication date: 1989) and warns us all how terrible the 1990s are going to be.

> Who keeps voting them up? Perhaps economically literate people who agree with the arguments? Schiff is a little on the alarmist side, but it takes a megaphone to be heard over the geyser of bull-tard propaganda that dominates popular business discussion. You get ahead in America by joining the rah-rah chorus and people just don't want to hear bad news. > Everybody Panic articles. Schiff is very positive and bullish…

>> His arguments are sound.

The production of good as the basis for an economy is dead. His argument is ignorant.

This is not an economic forum. Please post elsewhere.

Re: Peter Schiff: "In many ways, it's going to be worse than the Depression."

#18

Post by davidw »

kingkongrevenge wrote: post #14
davidw wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Perhaps economically literate people who agree with the arguments ... for some odd values of "economically literate", and who haven't caught on that this site is not for the discussion of one's pet economic and political theories.

If this post is off topic then so are almost all of pg's essays.

Most of PG's essays are about startups, hacking, and the like, although perhaps fewer have been lately. The other ones are generally interesting looks at something or another, but very rarely wacky rants about politics or economics.

Re: Peter Schiff: "In many ways, it's going to be worse than the Depression."

#19

Post by sridharvembu »

I upvoted for this. I take Peter Schiff very seriously. He has been right on housing, right on gold/commodities, and he is coming from a very fundamental point of view. I have been a fan of the "Austrian School" of Economics (Mises/Hayek/Rothbard) also known as the libertarian school, which is where people like Schiff come from.

Do yourself a favor, and read up about it before you dismiss all of that as pointless doom and gloom. Ultimately it all comes down to the mindset change that has happened in America (and many other countries) over the past 15-20 years. Debt has become very fashionable, and large segments of the population have unwittingly become debt slaves. The ultimate root cause is Federal Reserve monetary policy (find out why).

Credit bubbles do not end well.

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