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A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future

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Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future

#11

Post by drcross »

jacquesm wrote: post #6
modeless wrote: post #4

It has been obvious to me for a long time that AVs will not reduce traffic. Reducing the cost of driving will cause more driving to happen. While AVs will use the road slightly more efficiently, the increase in driving will more than make up for it. AVs will make traffic a whole lot more tolerable, though. And they will dramatically reduce parking needs, freeing up space for other uses.

It's a complete nobrainer. Right now the bulk of the cars are single occupant. That's because it is the occupants going places, not the cars. As soon as self-driving cars are a reality it will be the cars going places that get added to all the other traffic already there.

This is why I keep a keen eye on single occupancy vehicles. They will be the ultimate form of transportation and we haven't decided upon a good model design yet (think Renault twizy)

Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future

#12

Post by kps »

kjksf wrote: post #3

Here's what this research tells me: demand for transportation is much higher than the current use of transportation. Current use is limited by cost and convenience. Self-driving car is likely to fix both so it'll lead to more use of transportation. This is a good thing. We're currently deprived and if things go well, we'll get more of what we want. The congestion problem is mostly overblown. First, maybe with rare ex…

Single-person cars can be half width and share a lane, and run much closer together at speed.

Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future

#13

Post by CydeWeys »

jacquesm wrote: post #6
modeless wrote: post #4

It has been obvious to me for a long time that AVs will not reduce traffic. Reducing the cost of driving will cause more driving to happen. While AVs will use the road slightly more efficiently, the increase in driving will more than make up for it. AVs will make traffic a whole lot more tolerable, though. And they will dramatically reduce parking needs, freeing up space for other uses.

It's a complete nobrainer. Right now the bulk of the cars are single occupant. That's because it is the occupants going places, not the cars. As soon as self-driving cars are a reality it will be the cars going places that get added to all the other traffic already there.

Once AVs become commonplace it's entirely possible that the majority of the cars on the road will have zero occupants, either because they're running errands or doing the deadhead leg of an occupied trip.

It's absurd to think that transit buses containing dozens of riders are going to be held up behind zero-occupancy vehicles. The roads are going to get much much worse.

Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future

#14

Post by maxerickson »

viburnum wrote: post #9
kjksf wrote: post #3

Here's what this research tells me: demand for transportation is much higher than the current use of transportation. Current use is limited by cost and convenience. Self-driving car is likely to fix both so it'll lead to more use of transportation. This is a good thing. We're currently deprived and if things go well, we'll get more of what we want. The congestion problem is mostly overblown. First, maybe with rare ex…

So much transporting is just to mitigate land use failures. More transportation is solving the wrong problem.

Solving it is better than continuing to live with it.

Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future

#15

Post by optimiz3 »

viburnum wrote: post #9
kjksf wrote: post #3

Here's what this research tells me: demand for transportation is much higher than the current use of transportation. Current use is limited by cost and convenience. Self-driving car is likely to fix both so it'll lead to more use of transportation. This is a good thing. We're currently deprived and if things go well, we'll get more of what we want. The congestion problem is mostly overblown. First, maybe with rare ex…

So much transporting is just to mitigate land use failures. More transportation is solving the wrong problem.

So much health care is just to mitigate population control failures. More health care is solving the wrong problem.

So much computing is just to mitigate math education failures. More computing is solving the wrong problem.

Etc.

Thank goodness some people are willing to innovate.

Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future

#16

Post by CydeWeys »

kjksf wrote: post #3

Here's what this research tells me: demand for transportation is much higher than the current use of transportation. Current use is limited by cost and convenience. Self-driving car is likely to fix both so it'll lead to more use of transportation. This is a good thing. We're currently deprived and if things go well, we'll get more of what we want. The congestion problem is mostly overblown. First, maybe with rare ex…

> The congestion problem is mostly overblown.

It's really not. Congestion is a huge problem already, and increasing the current road utilization by 83% will bring entire cities to a standstill for the entirety of waking hours.

> I just eyeballed but ~80% cars were single person.

Yes, and in the AV future the majority of cars on the road will have zero occupants, so things will get much, much worse as far as how many people are actually being transported vs road utilization.

You then go on to talk about robotaxis, but that supposes that most people will give up the idea of personal car ownership entirely instead of just buying their own AVs; this doesn't seem likely.

Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future

#17

Post by Someone »

kjksf wrote: post #3

Here's what this research tells me: demand for transportation is much higher than the current use of transportation. Current use is limited by cost and convenience. Self-driving car is likely to fix both so it'll lead to more use of transportation. This is a good thing. We're currently deprived and if things go well, we'll get more of what we want. The congestion problem is mostly overblown. First, maybe with rare ex…

”The cars would no longer be an expression of personality and a status symbol”

You’re not the only one claiming that, but I don’t think it automatically follows. People can currently afford to buy cars for themselves, so unless self-driving cars will be (much) more expensive, people still would be able to afford them. So, in this case, the question is what else, if anything, people would want to use their money on instead of on owning a car.

If, on the other hand, self-driving cars will be much more expensive, there’s a risk that they will be too expensive. That may be offset by having self-driving cars make more hours each day, but I don’t think that’s a given.

One reason people own cars is that it guarantees a car is available when they need it. If people value that highly, self-driving cars will have to cater for that. I think that would mean the number of self-driving cars would have to be fairly similar to the number of cars now on the road. If that’s the end-game, why wouldn’t many people own a self-driving car, or lease one for their personal use?

Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future

#18

Post by jliptzin »

jacquesm wrote: post #6
modeless wrote: post #4

It has been obvious to me for a long time that AVs will not reduce traffic. Reducing the cost of driving will cause more driving to happen. While AVs will use the road slightly more efficiently, the increase in driving will more than make up for it. AVs will make traffic a whole lot more tolerable, though. And they will dramatically reduce parking needs, freeing up space for other uses.

It's a complete nobrainer. Right now the bulk of the cars are single occupant. That's because it is the occupants going places, not the cars. As soon as self-driving cars are a reality it will be the cars going places that get added to all the other traffic already there.

And you won’t need to park cars on valuable street area. Ideally they’d only stop to load/unload passengers, or to charge. That would free up many more lanes on city streets.

Re: A Week with Chauffeurs Showed the Major Flaw in a Self-Driving Car Future

#20

Post by alasdair_ »

amarshall wrote: post #8
l3robot wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not also to mention something often oversight. An autonomous car can park far away from it's user, meaning we could drastically reduce de number of space taken by parking in the city. First, giving back this spaces to the people as green parks and services places. Second, lower one of the biggest problem in our current city: urban heat island.

But then you’ll likely have a bunch of extra traffic created from the cars going to and from their owner to parking, rather than just to and from their destination. Or from the car just circling the block because the owner would rather not have to wait long for its return.

The “circling the block” is something that Uber etc. already exacerbate.

I think one solution would be to charge for each minute you are in a congested area to avoid having a whole bunch of empty cars clogging the streets.

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