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Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

nytimes.com

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Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#11

Post by danmaz74 »

bluedevil2k wrote: post #8

I think it's naive to think that humans will leave any oil in the ground despite climate change and any changes we enact to counteract it. We should work from an assumption that all the oil in the ground is going to be dug up and burned. It's too much money for some of these countries to ignore - the article mentions Guyana, a poor country that now has a way to print money. It also mentiones Venezuela, the country wi…

I'm afraid this is going to be true, unless some other far cheaper source of energy is going to be developed.

On the other hand, the rate at which that oil is going to be burned is very relevant for climate change, and that is a factor that is not set in stone. So, it's still worth to work in reducing emissions.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#12

Post by NeedMoreTea »

nabla9 wrote: post #2

This is incredibly good news for the developing world in the short- and medium term, but really bad news for the long term. Cheap energy boosts economic growth and well-being. Oil finds its comparative advantage relative to cheap solar. Globally liquid fuel production and consumption just goes up year after year https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/images/Fig6.png Reduced use of hydrocarbons in the west is nice but it's…

If we assume the developed world will eventually care to do something about the climate heating in the medium or long term, this is terrible for the developing world.

Build out the infrastructure for oil, the refuelling, without need of a power grid for EVs first. Then find in 2040 or 2050 that the developed world imposes trade sanctions or other pressure for not being carbon neutral. Build an infrastructure for at best twenty years then throw it away.

That's suggesting to build out with the horse and buggy in 1910.

If, on the other hand, the developed world doesn't get their act together, sure it's great news for the developing world in the short term. While the whole planet accelerates over the cliff edge. We can ultimately trim the population more than we did in the Black Death.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#13

Post by neuronic »

bluedevil2k wrote: post #8

I think it's naive to think that humans will leave any oil in the ground despite climate change and any changes we enact to counteract it. We should work from an assumption that all the oil in the ground is going to be dug up and burned. It's too much money for some of these countries to ignore - the article mentions Guyana, a poor country that now has a way to print money. It also mentiones Venezuela, the country wi…

The only solution would be to drastically reduce the value of oil and therefore make it uneconomic to dig it up. The easy-access oil is decreasing and extraction becomes more expensive.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#14

Post by neuronic »

perfunctory wrote: post #7
nabla9 wrote: post #2

This is incredibly good news for the developing world in the short- and medium term, but really bad news for the long term. Cheap energy boosts economic growth and well-being. Oil finds its comparative advantage relative to cheap solar. Globally liquid fuel production and consumption just goes up year after year https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/images/Fig6.png Reduced use of hydrocarbons in the west is nice but it's…

> The growth will slow down and stop in decade or two. I heard exact same statement a decade or two ago.

Are you suggesting that growth is infinite?

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#15

Post by NeedMoreTea »

bluedevil2k wrote: post #8

I think it's naive to think that humans will leave any oil in the ground despite climate change and any changes we enact to counteract it. We should work from an assumption that all the oil in the ground is going to be dug up and burned. It's too much money for some of these countries to ignore - the article mentions Guyana, a poor country that now has a way to print money. It also mentiones Venezuela, the country wi…

Depends. If the developed nations with armies are convinced enough it needs to stay in the ground, they might resort to drone diplomacy. I could foresee an oversight agency similar to that for anti-nuclear proliferation coming into being - to ensure your hydrocarbons are used for non-combustive purposes.

On progress of the developed world thus far, you are probably right.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#16

Post by SiempreViernes »

bluedevil2k wrote: post #8

I think it's naive to think that humans will leave any oil in the ground despite climate change and any changes we enact to counteract it. We should work from an assumption that all the oil in the ground is going to be dug up and burned. It's too much money for some of these countries to ignore - the article mentions Guyana, a poor country that now has a way to print money. It also mentiones Venezuela, the country wi…

That's a nice way of saying "give up on fighting climate change".

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#17

Post by thedevindevops »

bluedevil2k wrote: post #8

I think it's naive to think that humans will leave any oil in the ground despite climate change and any changes we enact to counteract it. We should work from an assumption that all the oil in the ground is going to be dug up and burned. It's too much money for some of these countries to ignore - the article mentions Guyana, a poor country that now has a way to print money. It also mentiones Venezuela, the country wi…

Well, it need not be burned, it can be converted to a series of products that don't involve burning it, plastics of many types, rubber, I'm sure even pharmaceuticals.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#18

Post by dstroot »

neuronic wrote: post #13
bluedevil2k wrote: post #8

I think it's naive to think that humans will leave any oil in the ground despite climate change and any changes we enact to counteract it. We should work from an assumption that all the oil in the ground is going to be dug up and burned. It's too much money for some of these countries to ignore - the article mentions Guyana, a poor country that now has a way to print money. It also mentiones Venezuela, the country wi…

The only solution would be to drastically reduce the value of oil and therefore make it uneconomic to dig it up. The easy-access oil is decreasing and extraction becomes more expensive.

This

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#19

Post by [deleted] »

neuronic wrote: post #13
bluedevil2k wrote: post #8

I think it's naive to think that humans will leave any oil in the ground despite climate change and any changes we enact to counteract it. We should work from an assumption that all the oil in the ground is going to be dug up and burned. It's too much money for some of these countries to ignore - the article mentions Guyana, a poor country that now has a way to print money. It also mentiones Venezuela, the country wi…

The only solution would be to drastically reduce the value of oil and therefore make it uneconomic to dig it up. The easy-access oil is decreasing and extraction becomes more expensive.

[deleted]

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#20

Post by tomp »

bluedevil2k wrote: post #8

I think it's naive to think that humans will leave any oil in the ground despite climate change and any changes we enact to counteract it. We should work from an assumption that all the oil in the ground is going to be dug up and burned. It's too much money for some of these countries to ignore - the article mentions Guyana, a poor country that now has a way to print money. It also mentiones Venezuela, the country wi…

That would be a catastrophe. Basically all oxygen in the atmosphere is a result of photosynthesis, which (combined with animals breathing) is a closed cycle (edit: in terms of mass, not energy) unless some of the resulting biomass (glucose) is buried underground (as oil and/or coal). Digging up and burning all fossil fuels would consume all oxygen in the atmosphere... let's hope that at least some of it is buried so deep and/or so inaccessible that we don't manage to dig and burn it up!
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