Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Climate Change Will Cost Us Even More Than We Think

nytimes.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

11–20 of 183 posts

Re: Climate Change Will Cost Us Even More Than We Think

#11

Post by bpodgursky »

pstuart wrote: post #6
tito wrote: post #4

Climate change will create the first trillionaire. Find every machine that eats fossil fuels and electrify it. Find every crop that requires stable land and predictable weather and farm it in a shipping container. Find every underlying infrastructure that requires decades to pay off and decentralize it. Instead of water line pipes, pull water out of the air. Instead of fiber optic cables make LEO satellites. Instead…

> Climate change will create the first trillionaire. Is that a good thing?

Why are you on Hacker News if you don't think successfully solving enormous problems merits enormous payoff? Like, this is the YCombinator message board. It's about venture capital and discussion for middling-to-wildly-ambitious startups.

I don't think you are wrong for asking the question, but this isn't really the place to question whether investment and entrepreneurism is an efficient system.

There's a lot of internet out there. This one is for startups. Just let this one exist.

Re: Climate Change Will Cost Us Even More Than We Think

#12

Post by SlowRobotAhead »

tito wrote: post #4

Climate change will create the first trillionaire. Find every machine that eats fossil fuels and electrify it. Find every crop that requires stable land and predictable weather and farm it in a shipping container. Find every underlying infrastructure that requires decades to pay off and decentralize it. Instead of water line pipes, pull water out of the air. Instead of fiber optic cables make LEO satellites. Instead…

Why do you keep copy and pasting the same post?

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21324768

> Find every machine that eats fossil fuels and electrify it.

As I replied last time... you’re starting a free lunch fallacy, and it isn’t getting much better from there.

Every “replacement” tech you list has massive downsides - replace fiber with inescapable high latency satellites, much higher cost, a crazy carbon footprint to launch them in to space, less bandwidth? Why are you just making up “better” alternatives to things?

I wasn’t sure the last time I replied to you about LED bulbs and their landfill potential vs old glass and wire bulbs that you’ve ever made anything or have any sense of scale. I’m gathering more evidence for that theory though.

Re: Climate Change Will Cost Us Even More Than We Think

#13

Post by tito »

I'm fascinated by this graph of the growth of solar as compared to International Agency Predictions.

Year after year, the IEA massively underestimated the growth of solar. Last year, at a workshop with the World Bank I heard an expert in energy investments say "even just 5 years ago none of us ever thought the price of solar could go this low this fast".

GRAPH: https://steinbuch.files.wordpress.com/2017/06/iea-vs-reality...

I'm curious if there's something similar for the changing climate. Just how much are we underestimating the changing climate? Has anyone seen a graph like the one above, but regarding climate predictions?

For example, the rate of Greeland's massive ice melt was as high as the worst climate predictions for 2070, decades into the future. [1][2] It seems even the scientific predictions can be too conservative.

[1] https://twitter.com/xavierfettweis/status/115648786895048294... [2] https://twitter.com/xavierfettweis/status/115648786895048294...

Re: Climate Change Will Cost Us Even More Than We Think

#14

Post by throwaway5752 »

all2 wrote: post #3
pstuart wrote: post #2

It's going to happen faster than we've been told. I expect in 10 years global panic will set in.

Can you support this opinion?

Well, extremes are what will cause most pain. Reality is running ahead of and worse than models, and the models seem to underestimate extrema https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-08745-6

Re: Climate Change Will Cost Us Even More Than We Think

#15

Post by moosey »

tito wrote: post #4

Climate change will create the first trillionaire. Find every machine that eats fossil fuels and electrify it. Find every crop that requires stable land and predictable weather and farm it in a shipping container. Find every underlying infrastructure that requires decades to pay off and decentralize it. Instead of water line pipes, pull water out of the air. Instead of fiber optic cables make LEO satellites. Instead…

I, on the other hand, believe that fighting climate change will be a great wealth equalizer. The development of cheap energy in the form of wind and solar power, and also the need for centralization in the fight against climate change (which will require an increase in taxes against those with money: the rich) will eliminate many current power structures in our current economic system, and will make many aspects of the 'usefulness' of wealth: the ability to travel quickly and in ... extreme ... comfort, access to exotic foods at any time, and the ability to use huge amounts of energy, will all become extremely limited or will be available to everyone, at least up to the point that it matters anymore.

These things that you describe must happen will never be accomplished by private companies because they are all wealth destructive behaviors, and the organization that does is will not make profit off of these endeavors: nobody can afford to buy the stuff being described anymore, at least in the United States. I know that I certainly can't afford to change out all of my homes infrastructure in preparation for climate change, and almost everyone that lives around me is in a worse financial situation than I'm in.

The process will be completed by governments, not by private corporations. This is probably part of the reason that corporations and the extremely wealthy fight against the knowledge of climate change in the public sphere: it will eliminate their 'monarchic' power structures and replace them with the highly effective centralized power structures that we had pre-Reagan.

Re: Climate Change Will Cost Us Even More Than We Think

#17

Post by seppin »

tito wrote: post #4

Climate change will create the first trillionaire. Find every machine that eats fossil fuels and electrify it. Find every crop that requires stable land and predictable weather and farm it in a shipping container. Find every underlying infrastructure that requires decades to pay off and decentralize it. Instead of water line pipes, pull water out of the air. Instead of fiber optic cables make LEO satellites. Instead…

> Climate change will create the first trillionaire.

Or it will break down every aspect of our current society until it is unrecognizable.

Your "technology will save us" attitude isn't a plan, it's more of a prayer.

Re: Climate Change Will Cost Us Even More Than We Think

#18

Post by all2 »

tito wrote: post #7
all2 wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you support this opinion?

Greenland's massive ice melt wasn't supposed to happen until 2070. It seems even the scientific predictions can be too conservative. The changing climate isn't a linear system, it's more like a step function. Once the ice melts it's much harder to get back. https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottsnowden/2019/08/16/greenla...

It is interesting to note that just about 1000 years ago the Vikings were growing barley in Greenland [0].

> “Now we can see that the Vikings could grow corn, and this was very important for their nourishment and survival,”

Barley seems to do ok in late Spring conditions in the NE United States [1]. I'm not certain you could grow barley or corn in Tundra conditions.

I bring this up when people mention warming global conditions because the planet has, in the past, been much warmer than it is now.

[0] https://sciencenordic.com/agriculture-archaeology-denmark/vi...

[1] https://plants.usda.gov/plantguide/pdf/ccpg_horde.pdf

Re: Climate Change Will Cost Us Even More Than We Think

#19

Post by phkahler »

tito wrote: post #7
all2 wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you support this opinion?

Greenland's massive ice melt wasn't supposed to happen until 2070. It seems even the scientific predictions can be too conservative. The changing climate isn't a linear system, it's more like a step function. Once the ice melts it's much harder to get back. https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottsnowden/2019/08/16/greenla...

It's part of a natural cycle. We were never going to stop it anyway. The real means to stop it will not be talked about until the serious changes start happening and the entire world is in panic.
Post reply on HN