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Andrew Yang's ideas on automation and mass unemployment are not based in reality

slate.com

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Re: Andrew Yang's ideas on automation and mass unemployment are not based in reality

#11

Post by aodin »

PakG1 wrote: post #3

In a 2018 paper, UC–Berkeley sociologist Steve Viscelli suggested that in the most likely scenario, long-haul truckers, who tend to make middle-class wages, will be replaced by poorly paid drivers tasked with steering autonomous vehicles through tricky city streets, which onboard navigation systems handle less well than highways. That’s not all jobs disappearing. It’s jobs changing. I'm not sure if the author is clai…

You can read the study here: http://laborcenter.berkeley.edu/driverless/

"Autonomous trucks could replace as many as 294,000 long-distance drivers, including some of the best jobs in the industry. Many other freight-moving jobs will be created in their place, perhaps even more than will be lost, but these new jobs will be local driving and last-mile delivery jobs that—absent proactive public policy—will likely be misclassified independent contractors and have lower wages and poor working conditions."

Re: Andrew Yang's ideas on automation and mass unemployment are not based in reality

#12

Post by gjmacd »

Use your eyes. Have you walked into a Supermarket? Or better, when's the last time you saw MORE retail store hiring MORE help and not actually cutting (because Amazon's choking them off). Better, ATM machines are now charging $5.00 per transaction fees because cash is no longer needed. Automation is a bad word for all this -- it should be called simply "job replacement" -- and it comes in all forms of technology than can help us in many ways, but also has ramifications like job loss. People need to use their eyes. He's not wrong. He's not full of it.

Re: Andrew Yang's ideas on automation and mass unemployment are not based in reality

#13

Post by crazy5sheep »

China or not, most of the jobs won't come back, they were eliminated by automation. The bottom line of the so called UBI is the redistribution of wealth. It's not only for individuals, but regions too. I somewhat image that the money you give to individuals is able to encourage them to move to regions where there are less jobs, but lower living cost. meanwhile, the newly moved in individuals are able to revive the region, creating new local business and jobs...etc.

Re: Andrew Yang's ideas on automation and mass unemployment are not based in reality

#14

Post by fullshark »

brycehamrick wrote: post #7

I'm not a Yang supporter but this article is total garbage. Slate has been very disappointing lately. The key takeaway seems to be while Yang says automation has displaced jobs there's a lack of academic consensus on the weight placed between trade policy and technology improvements; but everyone agrees both have had a significant effect. Ok... so we shouldn't be coming up with a plan for how to address economic chan…

Agreed, there are some good points in the piece, but the headline and concluding paragraph are not supported by the body.

Re: Andrew Yang's ideas on automation and mass unemployment are not based in reality

#15

Post by ZeroGravitas »

That's a strangely angry article and seems to miss the bigger point.

America changed its trade situation with China, which either made the US better off or worse off. (I'm guessing the economic consensus for is better off).

Basically the same applies to automation.

No individual factory worker or doctor or police officer made that happen, so the benefits and/or costs should be spread around equally. UBI is one tool for doing that. People who lose their job and need to retrain automatically get cushioned, which lets your society be more ruthless about creative destruction.

Re: Andrew Yang's ideas on automation and mass unemployment are not based in reality

#16

Post by alexandercrohde »

PakG1 wrote: post #3

In a 2018 paper, UC–Berkeley sociologist Steve Viscelli suggested that in the most likely scenario, long-haul truckers, who tend to make middle-class wages, will be replaced by poorly paid drivers tasked with steering autonomous vehicles through tricky city streets, which onboard navigation systems handle less well than highways. That’s not all jobs disappearing. It’s jobs changing. I'm not sure if the author is clai…

Yeah, honestly I don't really understand the article's point.

Is it that say McDonalds switching to electronic kiosks to order your burger is going to create as MANY tech jobs as it took away? Because that doesn't pass the smell test.

Re: Andrew Yang's ideas on automation and mass unemployment are not based in reality

#17

Post by axaxs »

kadoban wrote: post #8

"[...] Long-haul truckers, who tend to make middle-class wages, will be replaced by poorly paid drivers tasked with steering autonomous vehicles through tricky city streets, which onboard navigation systems handle less well than highways. That’s not all jobs disappearing. It’s jobs changing." Uhm, that's halfway decent careers turning into far fewer and shittier jobs. That's jobs disappearing. And it ignores that eve…

Exactly right. Not to mention it's the most common job in most states. That's a lot of people losing what quality of life they had.

Re: Andrew Yang's ideas on automation and mass unemployment are not based in reality

#18

Post by ianai »

aodin wrote: post #11
PakG1 wrote: post #3

In a 2018 paper, UC–Berkeley sociologist Steve Viscelli suggested that in the most likely scenario, long-haul truckers, who tend to make middle-class wages, will be replaced by poorly paid drivers tasked with steering autonomous vehicles through tricky city streets, which onboard navigation systems handle less well than highways. That’s not all jobs disappearing. It’s jobs changing. I'm not sure if the author is clai…

You can read the study here: http://laborcenter.berkeley.edu/driverless/ "Autonomous trucks could replace as many as 294,000 long-distance drivers, including some of the best jobs in the industry. Many other freight-moving jobs will be created in their place, perhaps even more than will be lost, but these new jobs will be local driving and last-mile delivery jobs that—absent proactive public policy—will likely be mis…

Those last mile delivery jobs also already exist. That market isn’t going to grow, necessarily, because long distance becomes autonomous.

Re: Andrew Yang's ideas on automation and mass unemployment are not based in reality

#19

Post by PakG1 »

aodin wrote: post #11
PakG1 wrote: post #3

In a 2018 paper, UC–Berkeley sociologist Steve Viscelli suggested that in the most likely scenario, long-haul truckers, who tend to make middle-class wages, will be replaced by poorly paid drivers tasked with steering autonomous vehicles through tricky city streets, which onboard navigation systems handle less well than highways. That’s not all jobs disappearing. It’s jobs changing. I'm not sure if the author is clai…

You can read the study here: http://laborcenter.berkeley.edu/driverless/ "Autonomous trucks could replace as many as 294,000 long-distance drivers, including some of the best jobs in the industry. Many other freight-moving jobs will be created in their place, perhaps even more than will be lost, but these new jobs will be local driving and last-mile delivery jobs that—absent proactive public policy—will likely be mis…

If tech companies reach their holy grail of what they want to do with self-driving, last-mile delivery jobs won't exist. And as I already said, yes, that's a big if. But it's something the tech companies are aiming to achieve. And besides that, I am highly doubtful that proactive public policy would enable last-mile delivery jobs to have higher wages and better working conditions. The public policy isn't there today, I'm not confident it would be there in the future. Most public policy trusts macro economic theory's invisible hand to naturally raise wages if there are truly more jobs than there are people. And if it's true, that's what will happen, then there's no need for proactive public policy. So... /shrug

All of this ignores Yang's other point that all of the roadside diners and other hospitality industry on the highways that depend on the trucking industry would be affected.

I'm not saying that the tech companies will achieve what they are aiming to do. Again, I'm a short-term self-driving skeptic. But I think it's dangerous to not have the conversation.

Re: Andrew Yang's ideas on automation and mass unemployment are not based in reality

#20

Post by braindeath »

So the article is probably correct that trade has been a bigger issue than automation. Well let’s assume that’s true, to be charitable to the mentally challenged Slate authors.

So what happens after you put the screws to trade? That certainly isn’t going to decrease automation as an alternative. What happened from 2000-2010 doesn’t really matter, they should save their breath.

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