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Gas Plants Will Get Crushed by Wind, Solar by 2035: Study

bloomberg.com

11–20 of 204 posts

Re: Gas Plants Will Get Crushed by Wind, Solar by 2035: Study

#11
post #2

I hope this is a solid study and not just wishful thinking. I've been looking at pricing, and right now, fracked gas plants are running around $40/mwh, with wind at under $50/mwh and PV solar (no battery storage) at around $60/mwh. Coal and traditional nuclear are running around $100/mwh (these are all rounded numbers from memory, don't get unhelpfully pedantic!). These numbers are obliterating both coal and nuclear.…

There's still a margin of soft costs that can be reduced (more in the residential than commercial/utility sectors, admittedly): https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy19osti/72399.pdf

Re: Gas Plants Will Get Crushed by Wind, Solar by 2035: Study

#12

There are at least 5 better alternatives to wind and solar, but we don't teach science any more in public schools. If we did, there wouldn't even BE climate change alarmist hysteria poised to destroy entire economies.

could you name them and explain the rationale?

genuinely curious

Re: Gas Plants Will Get Crushed by Wind, Solar by 2035: Study

#13
post #2

I hope this is a solid study and not just wishful thinking. I've been looking at pricing, and right now, fracked gas plants are running around $40/mwh, with wind at under $50/mwh and PV solar (no battery storage) at around $60/mwh. Coal and traditional nuclear are running around $100/mwh (these are all rounded numbers from memory, don't get unhelpfully pedantic!). These numbers are obliterating both coal and nuclear.…

Numbers for wind and solar are now about $40/MWh unsubsidized according to current LCOE analysis: https://www.lazard.com/media/450784/lazards-levelized-cost-o... ...as you say, this is not the whole story as you still need storage (etc).

But the floor for (unsubsidized) solar may be a lot lower than that. About $14/MWh: https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/the-floor-for-u...

And we're already seeing bids nearly that low: https://www.pv-tech.org/news/brazil-auction-sets-record-low-...

Wind is also super cheap.

Re: Gas Plants Will Get Crushed by Wind, Solar by 2035: Study

#14
post #10

Sorry to thread jack, but- important question: how are people reading Bloomberg now that they shut down incognito mode as of this week? Disabling Javascript doesn't seem to work either. I'm using Outline for the time being, but it's slow and annoying, and it won't load any longforms that contain multiple pictures or graphs. Anyone else have a better solution?

Move on and find something else to read.

Re: Gas Plants Will Get Crushed by Wind, Solar by 2035: Study

#15
post #10

Sorry to thread jack, but- important question: how are people reading Bloomberg now that they shut down incognito mode as of this week? Disabling Javascript doesn't seem to work either. I'm using Outline for the time being, but it's slow and annoying, and it won't load any longforms that contain multiple pictures or graphs. Anyone else have a better solution?

Bypass Paywalls extension

Re: Gas Plants Will Get Crushed by Wind, Solar by 2035: Study

#16
post #8
post #2

I hope this is a solid study and not just wishful thinking. I've been looking at pricing, and right now, fracked gas plants are running around $40/mwh, with wind at under $50/mwh and PV solar (no battery storage) at around $60/mwh. Coal and traditional nuclear are running around $100/mwh (these are all rounded numbers from memory, don't get unhelpfully pedantic!). These numbers are obliterating both coal and nuclear.…

> and nuclear plants are shutting down a decade or more before official end-of-life, because they're losing major customers to cheaper alternatives that are available right now How? My understanding is that most of the cost of nuclear power comes from building the plant and decommissioning it. Running existing power plants for as long as they can seems like the most economical choice.

Indeed. See page 2 (or 3, counting from the pdf) of this analysis by Lazard. In particular, the tan diamond symbol by nuclear (with a footnote). https://www.lazard.com/media/450784/lazards-levelized-cost-o...

Nuclear that's already built is very cheap AND has a very high capacity factor (i.e. doesn't need storage--although its value can be extended with storage).

Re: Gas Plants Will Get Crushed by Wind, Solar by 2035: Study

#17
post #10

Sorry to thread jack, but- important question: how are people reading Bloomberg now that they shut down incognito mode as of this week? Disabling Javascript doesn't seem to work either. I'm using Outline for the time being, but it's slow and annoying, and it won't load any longforms that contain multiple pictures or graphs. Anyone else have a better solution?

https://outline.com/fFFeMw

Re: Gas Plants Will Get Crushed by Wind, Solar by 2035: Study

#18

There are at least 5 better alternatives to wind and solar, but we don't teach science any more in public schools. If we did, there wouldn't even BE climate change alarmist hysteria poised to destroy entire economies.

Please explain your points instead of off-the-hip vague statements.

I suggest you have a second look at the HN guidelines [1].

[1]: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

Re: Gas Plants Will Get Crushed by Wind, Solar by 2035: Study

#19
My understanding (which is probably uninformed at best) has been that coal, nuclear, etc are used to cover base load, and basically work best when up and running at 100% all the time.

Natural gas has the advantage that it can be spun up and down pretty quickly, which has meant that it is used primarily for "peak" load, which I think used to be covered a lot of the time by things such as diesel and oil plants and have basically been supplanted at this point by natural gas.

Solar and wind have the trouble that they are unreliable, which means you need something to smooth out demand. This is something coal and nuclear are poor at, meaning if you are bringing solar and wind into the mix on a large scale, natural gas becomes even more appealing since you can spin it up / down to balance capacity.

A thing I don't see mentioned very often is the relative density of each power source. One of the things nuclear and coal have going for them, is that you can supply a lot of electricity in a fairly limited footprint.

Wind and solar a much less dense, meaning you need to cover a much larger area, and you need it to be more distributed rather than all concentrated in one place.

All of this is to say that I think everything is inter-related much more than people realize. Shifting to using more solar / wind creates a pressure to move away from coal / nuclear even without considering the "clean energy" aspect.

Re: Gas Plants Will Get Crushed by Wind, Solar by 2035: Study

#20
post #9

Excess electric doesn't have to be in stored with chemicals like lithium ion, energy is still energy.

True, it can be stored in salt for example, as it currently is in multiple operational concentrated solar plants. Some have the ability to maintain output during the entire night.
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