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Alphabet overtakes Apple to become most cash-rich company

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Re: Alphabet overtakes Apple to become most cash-rich company

#11
Finance 101: Being cash-rich is a major advantage in environments where fundraising is a major hurdle, and where the funds can be put to productive use very quickly. For example, for a startup to raise funds for a major marketing campaign, it has to go through a lengthy and attention-demanding process of pitching to VCs and negotiating terms. Hence why having a big war-chest ready to fire, can be a competitive advantage for a startup.

For big public companies, it's the opposite. If a company wants to fundraise 10% of its market-cap, either for an acquisition or major investment, it doesn't require nearly as much effort. It can issue new shares, and immediately sell them to investors the next day for cash. The hard part is finding profitable investments, not raising the funds to make it happen. Hence why there's little competitive advantage in hoarding cash.

On the flip side, having a big cash hoard is bad for your investors' returns. It bloats your market-cap, without having any impact on earnings. This means that your P/E ratio is now inflated, and your earnings yield is reduced. From an investor's perspective, if you have invested $100 in the company, you're only only getting back $6 in profits every year, not $7 or $8.

Another way to look at this, is that Google/Apple invest their cash hoard very conservatively, in things like short-term treasuries, because of which their returns are very low. Whereas most of their investors would far prefer to invest the money in investments that produce better returns, such as the S&P 500. By not returning the cash hoard to its investors, Google is essentially forcing them to make low-return investments that they would never make otherwise. Of course, investors aren't going to be happy with this, and they will retaliate by lowering their valuation of GOOG stock, thus depressing the share price.

Re: Alphabet overtakes Apple to become most cash-rich company

#12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only way he doesn't have a point is if Google thinks its company is significantly undervalued, in which case buybacks are smart. Their CEO, Sundar Pichai, gets a huge stock-based compensation, so you have to factor in how management has a large incentive to grow the stock value, but not necessarily in the long term (making buybacks desirable regardless of whether the company is actually cheap or not).

> Their CEO, Sundar Pichai, gets a huge stock-based compensation I'm as cynical as they come, but I'm skeptical that all people at these levels are that driven by their compensation. They are ultra-wealthy, and forever will be; a few extra million here or there isn't anything compared to what they stand to lose in wealth and reputation in the face of negative public sentiment. But I could be wrong.

> I'm skeptical that all people at these levels are that driven by their compensation.

All of your arguments make sense...except that we see people at these levels take actions to increase their compensation so frequently, even at the risk of their reputations.

I don't know about Pichai personally, nor can I explain WHY the mega-rich are so interested in getting richer when it can't possibly change their day-to-day or even long-term comfort, but there does seem to be a lot of evidence suggesting they are motivated by that.

Re: Alphabet overtakes Apple to become most cash-rich company

#13
post #4

This reminds me of a talk I watched with Peter Thiel and Eric Schmidt. I know Thiel is controversial, but he was well-meaningly digging at Google for running out of ideas and no longer innovating. The criticism was something like "You have so much cash on hand but no ideas to invest in. However, you can't pay a dividend because the second you do, you're admitting you've run out of ideas and are no longer innovating".…

I think Google invests a lot. Look at CapitalG, GV etc. And now within Google itself, 2 projects which I think are aiming to become platforms: Stadia, Fuschia. Personally, I have been disappointed with Google in the AR front. Haven't heard much about investments/ acquisitions. OTOH, Apple has been acquihiring small teams, investing in microLEDs etc. Though, overall Alphabet's investments are much diverse.

Re: Alphabet overtakes Apple to become most cash-rich company

#14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only way he doesn't have a point is if Google thinks its company is significantly undervalued, in which case buybacks are smart. Their CEO, Sundar Pichai, gets a huge stock-based compensation, so you have to factor in how management has a large incentive to grow the stock value, but not necessarily in the long term (making buybacks desirable regardless of whether the company is actually cheap or not).

> if Google thinks its company is significantly undervalued, in which case buybacks are smart Honest questions here, as my stock understanding is fairly limited: Why does a company care if it's "undervalued"? How does a buyback actually change that valuation? (doesn't the market cap remain the same after the purchase?)

No expert, but as a first guess, with their "insider information" (as the first party), if they believe the market undervalues them, they also expect a future correction (their price rising when they show revenue/market share/whatever proves the market wrong) and then they profit.

Re: Alphabet overtakes Apple to become most cash-rich company

#15
post #8
post #4

This reminds me of a talk I watched with Peter Thiel and Eric Schmidt. I know Thiel is controversial, but he was well-meaningly digging at Google for running out of ideas and no longer innovating. The criticism was something like "You have so much cash on hand but no ideas to invest in. However, you can't pay a dividend because the second you do, you're admitting you've run out of ideas and are no longer innovating".…

Here's an HBR article that addresses some of the misunderstandings in maligning buy back programs: https://hbr.org/2018/03/are-buybacks-really-shortchanging-in... . They comment that: "... when we look at CAPEX and R&D as a percentage of revenue ... over the past 25 years, we see that the overall investment intensity of S&P 500 firms, while quite volatile on a year-to-year basis, has been rising over the past decade,…

I wouldn’t start one company. I would take a leaf out of Y Combinator’s book, and start funding lots a small startups, as well as advising them. I’d would attempt at investing in such a way that I create an ecosystem of companies that can learn from each other and support each other. I’d focus on climate resilience. Lots of current practices will be disrupted by changes we are already seeing. Easy? Probably not, but I think it could work well.

Re: Alphabet overtakes Apple to become most cash-rich company

#17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only way he doesn't have a point is if Google thinks its company is significantly undervalued, in which case buybacks are smart. Their CEO, Sundar Pichai, gets a huge stock-based compensation, so you have to factor in how management has a large incentive to grow the stock value, but not necessarily in the long term (making buybacks desirable regardless of whether the company is actually cheap or not).

> Their CEO, Sundar Pichai, gets a huge stock-based compensation I'm as cynical as they come, but I'm skeptical that all people at these levels are that driven by their compensation. They are ultra-wealthy, and forever will be; a few extra million here or there isn't anything compared to what they stand to lose in wealth and reputation in the face of negative public sentiment. But I could be wrong.

I don't know Sundar Pichai, but evidence suggest that folks of similar means make many decisions based on personal financial outcomes. They may not "need" the money, but it's a good scorecard.

Re: Alphabet overtakes Apple to become most cash-rich company

#18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only way he doesn't have a point is if Google thinks its company is significantly undervalued, in which case buybacks are smart. Their CEO, Sundar Pichai, gets a huge stock-based compensation, so you have to factor in how management has a large incentive to grow the stock value, but not necessarily in the long term (making buybacks desirable regardless of whether the company is actually cheap or not).

> if Google thinks its company is significantly undervalued, in which case buybacks are smart Honest questions here, as my stock understanding is fairly limited: Why does a company care if it's "undervalued"? How does a buyback actually change that valuation? (doesn't the market cap remain the same after the purchase?)

I think the idea is that if they think they are "undervalued", they can buy the stock back now for X and sell it for >X later to raise more cash for when they need it.

Re: Alphabet overtakes Apple to become most cash-rich company

#19
post #7
post #4

This reminds me of a talk I watched with Peter Thiel and Eric Schmidt. I know Thiel is controversial, but he was well-meaningly digging at Google for running out of ideas and no longer innovating. The criticism was something like "You have so much cash on hand but no ideas to invest in. However, you can't pay a dividend because the second you do, you're admitting you've run out of ideas and are no longer innovating".…

Thiel is also on a jingoist bend against Google, so I would take whatever he says with a grain of salt. I saw him on CNBC claiming that Google was unpatriotic for dropping the government project Maven (machine vision for millitary drones) and that Google was also a Chinese sympathizer - despite there being no evidence and also the fact that you can't even use Google in China. The same Google employees that revolted a…

He went way beyond "Chinese sympathy", accusing Google of treason and claiming they're infiltrated by the Chinese.

https://www.axios.com/peter-thiel-says-fbi-cia-should-probe-...

Re: Alphabet overtakes Apple to become most cash-rich company

#20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Their CEO, Sundar Pichai, gets a huge stock-based compensation I'm as cynical as they come, but I'm skeptical that all people at these levels are that driven by their compensation. They are ultra-wealthy, and forever will be; a few extra million here or there isn't anything compared to what they stand to lose in wealth and reputation in the face of negative public sentiment. But I could be wrong.

> I'm skeptical that all people at these levels are that driven by their compensation. All of your arguments make sense...except that we see people at these levels take actions to increase their compensation so frequently, even at the risk of their reputations. I don't know about Pichai personally, nor can I explain WHY the mega-rich are so interested in getting richer when it can't possibly change their day-to-day o…

I don't disagree, but in the case of Pichai specifically: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-29/google-ce...
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