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It’s Official: This Is Now the Longest Economic Expansion in US History

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Re: It’s Official: This Is Now the Longest Economic Expansion in US History

#11

Post by whb07 »

sjg007 wrote: post #10
m0llusk wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is not possible to disable downturns. It sounds different if framed as the longest economic bender in history. The hangover is likely to be brutal. Alternatively one might argue that what is happening is a kind of bifurcation. The wealthy and well measured get an ongoing expansion while the poor, shiftless, and unrecorded fall through the cracks at alarming rates. We didn't have homeless families in significant nu…

Right, the fix would be some form of govt regulation to break the bifurcation or maybe more social net support.

it was the government that caused this in the first place. I always wonder why people suggest this, when the "cure" to the ailment is more of the disease.

Re: It’s Official: This Is Now the Longest Economic Expansion in US History

#12

Post by swebs »

m0llusk wrote: post #6
rhacker wrote: post #2

Money is strange, right? It literally doesn't exist yet it can run out and cause entire nations to go into chaos. Since it is literally a sociological experiment, are we going to get to the point where we fine tune the allotment such that we disable down-turns? It's almost as if we simply just get angsty all at once, see a global therapist and the economy recovers.

It is not possible to disable downturns. It sounds different if framed as the longest economic bender in history. The hangover is likely to be brutal. Alternatively one might argue that what is happening is a kind of bifurcation. The wealthy and well measured get an ongoing expansion while the poor, shiftless, and unrecorded fall through the cracks at alarming rates. We didn't have homeless families in significant nu…

Huh? The homeless rate has been going down across the country over the past few years. Maybe you're just in one of the few states where it has been increasing, like New York, California, or Massachusetts.

https://www.usich.gov/tools-for-action/map/

Re: It’s Official: This Is Now the Longest Economic Expansion in US History

#13

Post by jcims »

b_tterc_p wrote: post #4
rhacker wrote: post #2

Money is strange, right? It literally doesn't exist yet it can run out and cause entire nations to go into chaos. Since it is literally a sociological experiment, are we going to get to the point where we fine tune the allotment such that we disable down-turns? It's almost as if we simply just get angsty all at once, see a global therapist and the economy recovers.

It doesn’t run out. It just gets stuck.

I'm sure someone has come up with a better analogy, but dollars are like electrons, they only do work when they move.

I was looking at some other HN thread a while back and there was someone talking about how a subscription model works much better for investors because the regularity of returns worked best with expectations from the investors. And it occurred to me at that time that this electric analogy might extend to impedance matching between investor and investee...with the best matched networks operating the most efficiently. (And of course, if you can develop an investment model that matches underserved opportunities you might find a way to make some money.)

Re: It’s Official: This Is Now the Longest Economic Expansion in US History

#14

Post by sjg007 »

rhacker wrote: post #2

Money is strange, right? It literally doesn't exist yet it can run out and cause entire nations to go into chaos. Since it is literally a sociological experiment, are we going to get to the point where we fine tune the allotment such that we disable down-turns? It's almost as if we simply just get angsty all at once, see a global therapist and the economy recovers.

Sure, it’s a herd effect. Investors pull their money and consumers spend less. This reinforces itself until the govt injects money via a stimulus or bailout.

Re: It’s Official: This Is Now the Longest Economic Expansion in US History

#16

Post by sjg007 »

whb07 wrote: post #11
sjg007 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right, the fix would be some form of govt regulation to break the bifurcation or maybe more social net support.

it was the government that caused this in the first place. I always wonder why people suggest this, when the "cure" to the ailment is more of the disease.

Randian economics is not a solution.

Re: It’s Official: This Is Now the Longest Economic Expansion in US History

#17

Post by fxj »

rhacker wrote: post #2

Money is strange, right? It literally doesn't exist yet it can run out and cause entire nations to go into chaos. Since it is literally a sociological experiment, are we going to get to the point where we fine tune the allotment such that we disable down-turns? It's almost as if we simply just get angsty all at once, see a global therapist and the economy recovers.

Money is just a promise. You promise that you do something for somebody and in exchange you get money which you can convert to another promise. In the end it depends on the reliability of the people who use it whether money exists or dissolves into a broken promise.

At the moment the promises are high. We will see whether they can be fulfilled.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/trumpflation.asp

Re: It’s Official: This Is Now the Longest Economic Expansion in US History

#18

Post by Miner49er »

whb07 wrote: post #11
sjg007 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right, the fix would be some form of govt regulation to break the bifurcation or maybe more social net support.

it was the government that caused this in the first place. I always wonder why people suggest this, when the "cure" to the ailment is more of the disease.

How does the government cause downturns?

Re: It’s Official: This Is Now the Longest Economic Expansion in US History

#19

Post by dahart »

rhacker wrote: post #2

Money is strange, right? It literally doesn't exist yet it can run out and cause entire nations to go into chaos. Since it is literally a sociological experiment, are we going to get to the point where we fine tune the allotment such that we disable down-turns? It's almost as if we simply just get angsty all at once, see a global therapist and the economy recovers.

Money is strange, indeed. But disabling downturns might be something we don’t want.

From the article: “Recessions are a healthy, necessary part of the economic cycle. They keep investors, businesses, and households disciplined. They remove overcapacity and make room for innovation and evolution. The US has endured 42 recessions and five depressions since the 1780s. The US economy recovered from every single one, returning to growth within an average of roughly one and a half years. That includes the 39 recessions and depressions that proceeded the establishment of the Federal Reserve in 1913, and the 20 that occurred when the US had no central bank at all. The eras of the most robust growth in American history have been punctuated by frequent recessions, not long stretches without them.”

I like the analogy of getting ansgty all at once and seeing the therapist. I probably wouldn’t characterize down-turns as money running out, though. This might be what you meant, but the money doesn’t run out per se, recessions are more like angst leading to shyness, it’s less activity rather than less money. If the money actually ran out, I imagine the chaos might be a lot bigger than we’ve ever seen.

Re: It’s Official: This Is Now the Longest Economic Expansion in US History

#20

Post by blts »

rhacker wrote: post #2

Money is strange, right? It literally doesn't exist yet it can run out and cause entire nations to go into chaos. Since it is literally a sociological experiment, are we going to get to the point where we fine tune the allotment such that we disable down-turns? It's almost as if we simply just get angsty all at once, see a global therapist and the economy recovers.

Money is quite simple - it is the accumulation of value of individual work. The same way batteries store electricity - money store value of work. The same way batteries exchange stored electricity to perform work, money is exchanging stored value to work of others that we desire.
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