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Open Source Could Be a Casualty of the Trade War

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Re: Open Source Could Be a Casualty of the Trade War

#11
post #9
post #2

The article takes a while to get to the point made in the title but the way to counteract this seems to be, get the infrastructure for open source out of America before it's too late. In contrast to the ARM example, the US doesn't really have any leverage against a volunteer open source project not within its borders.

Open Source effectively is out of America or any other single jurisdiction: think of all of the people who have up to date copies of virtually every package all around the world. If the U.S. were to say tomorrow, as we used to do with cryptography, that (certain types of) software can't be shared outside of the U.S., the development of said (Open Source) software would likely just be taken over by groups outside the…

I believe the majority of FOSS developers reside in the US. You can't really pipe them out through a fiber channel.

Re: Open Source Could Be a Casualty of the Trade War

#12

“through powers granted via the “EAR” (Export Administration Regulation 15 CFR, subchapter C, parts 730-774), along with a sometimes surprisingly broad definition of what qualifies as export-controlled US technology.” Boom! I told people they might do that back in the crypto discussions. Custom crypto and high-assurance security are still munitions with only a few things re-classified such as mass-market, one-size-fi…

[deleted]

Re: Open Source Could Be a Casualty of the Trade War

#13
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Open Source effectively is out of America or any other single jurisdiction: think of all of the people who have up to date copies of virtually every package all around the world. If the U.S. were to say tomorrow, as we used to do with cryptography, that (certain types of) software can't be shared outside of the U.S., the development of said (Open Source) software would likely just be taken over by groups outside the…

I believe the majority of FOSS developers reside in the US. You can't really pipe them out through a fiber channel.

You might get an immediate hit to development, but given a bit of time non-US developers would step up their game. A lot of FOSS is paid for by big companies who would likely want to continue operating this way, so they would reroute expenses accordingly.

Crypto didn't die when it was export-restricted, and that stuff is really complicated.

Re: Open Source Could Be a Casualty of the Trade War

#14

“through powers granted via the “EAR” (Export Administration Regulation 15 CFR, subchapter C, parts 730-774), along with a sometimes surprisingly broad definition of what qualifies as export-controlled US technology.” Boom! I told people they might do that back in the crypto discussions. Custom crypto and high-assurance security are still munitions with only a few things re-classified such as mass-market, one-size-fi…

Look at exception TSU.

Re: Open Source Could Be a Casualty of the Trade War

#15
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Open Source effectively is out of America or any other single jurisdiction: think of all of the people who have up to date copies of virtually every package all around the world. If the U.S. were to say tomorrow, as we used to do with cryptography, that (certain types of) software can't be shared outside of the U.S., the development of said (Open Source) software would likely just be taken over by groups outside the…

I believe the majority of FOSS developers reside in the US. You can't really pipe them out through a fiber channel.

In general, the developers are wherever the corporate sponsorship is these days. i.e most development on key packages these days isn't done as a labor of love by most developers anymore. Also, at least a significant fraction, if not the majority, of those doing FOSS development here in the U.S. weren't born here. Linus being a perfect example. So it's not like we have any magic pixie dust that makes U.S.-born developers special.

So you're right, you can't pipe them out through fiber channel but you don't need to. You just need to fund them wherever you want them.

Re: Open Source Could Be a Casualty of the Trade War

#16
post #10
post #6

A contact at Foxconn just told me yesterday that Apple is genuinely serious about leaving China completely. Apparently, Mr. Trump summoned Mr. Cook last week, and extended an offer of a tax break and other "relocation packages" on the size "not seen in human history" if Apple moves to USA. Hearing things like that keeps reminding me that Taiwanese engineering fraternity is one of worlds best intelligence agencies :)

And Apple will milk that agreement long after Trump leaves office, doing whatever makes more sense for the bottom line, even if that means moving to production to Mexico eventually. And, just like all these large companies, will avoid paying corporate taxes to an even greater extent. Trump will claim he restored American manufacturing, and he will have, long enough for him to Tweet about it, and not much longer.

Every company considering a deal with Trump should consider that America has walked away from shitty deals before. Sometimes it just takes a little while.

Re: Open Source Could Be a Casualty of the Trade War

#17
post #5
post #2

The article takes a while to get to the point made in the title but the way to counteract this seems to be, get the infrastructure for open source out of America before it's too late. In contrast to the ARM example, the US doesn't really have any leverage against a volunteer open source project not within its borders.

Fortunately, there is a bulwark: Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances. The bulwark defending the bulwark is the population.

Good luck explaining your commits to that munitions grade crypto used by terror cells in the mideast region as "Free Speech".

Hope that works out for you. :-(

(I'd wager there'll be a few more Snowden types asking for asylum outside the US before this is all over.)

Re: Open Source Could Be a Casualty of the Trade War

#19
post #10
post #6

A contact at Foxconn just told me yesterday that Apple is genuinely serious about leaving China completely. Apparently, Mr. Trump summoned Mr. Cook last week, and extended an offer of a tax break and other "relocation packages" on the size "not seen in human history" if Apple moves to USA. Hearing things like that keeps reminding me that Taiwanese engineering fraternity is one of worlds best intelligence agencies :)

And Apple will milk that agreement long after Trump leaves office, doing whatever makes more sense for the bottom line, even if that means moving to production to Mexico eventually. And, just like all these large companies, will avoid paying corporate taxes to an even greater extent. Trump will claim he restored American manufacturing, and he will have, long enough for him to Tweet about it, and not much longer.

[flagged]

Re: Open Source Could Be a Casualty of the Trade War

#20
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And Apple will milk that agreement long after Trump leaves office, doing whatever makes more sense for the bottom line, even if that means moving to production to Mexico eventually. And, just like all these large companies, will avoid paying corporate taxes to an even greater extent. Trump will claim he restored American manufacturing, and he will have, long enough for him to Tweet about it, and not much longer.

Every company considering a deal with Trump should consider that America has walked away from shitty deals before. Sometimes it just takes a little while.

\s It just has to last long enough for executives to cash in their bonuses.
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