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Visit to the World's Fair of 2014 (1964)

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Re: Visit to the World's Fair of 2014 (1964)

#11

Post by barbecue_sauce »

gshdg wrote: post #9
pmoriarty wrote: post #4

1 - Glowing ceilings and walls - not really, most people still use separate light fixtures 2 - Windows mostly obsolete - no 3 - Polarized glass in windows - kind of - mostly no, though some exist 4 - Opacity of glass changing based on light intensity - yes, but rare 5 - Underground housing - yes, but rare 6 - "Light-forced vegetable gardens" - yes, but rare 7 - Surface of the Earth used only for large-scale agricultu…

Huh, I would count #35 as a yes, fwiw. They may not be built into the wall, but from the perspective of someone from 1964, today’s large flat panel TVs are basically wall screens. And #50 as a no. High school students learn to operate computers, but the vast majority do not learn binary or programming.

I would argue learning how to operate a computer does constitute computer _fundamentals_. Programming is more advanced.

Re: Visit to the World's Fair of 2014 (1964)

#12

Post by NikolaeVarius »

burlesona wrote: post #8

That was an interesting read. Many things wrong, but many things right, and perhaps nothing so sobering as the closing thoughts: > Even so, mankind will suffer badly from the disease of boredom, a disease spreading more widely each year and growing in intensity. This will have serious mental, emotional and sociological consequences, and I dare say that psychiatry will be far and away the most important medical specia…

A goddamn Nostradamus

Re: Visit to the World's Fair of 2014 (1964)

#13

Post by gshdg »

barbecue_sauce wrote: post #11
gshdg wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Huh, I would count #35 as a yes, fwiw. They may not be built into the wall, but from the perspective of someone from 1964, today’s large flat panel TVs are basically wall screens. And #50 as a no. High school students learn to operate computers, but the vast majority do not learn binary or programming.

I would argue learning how to operate a computer does constitute computer _fundamentals_. Programming is more advanced.

A matter of how one interprets the original, I guess?

> All the high-school students will be taught the fundamentals of computer technology will become proficient in binary arithmetic and will be trained to perfection in the use of the computer languages that will have developed out of those like the contemporary "Fortran".

Re: Visit to the World's Fair of 2014 (1964)

#14

Post by emeraldx »

pmoriarty wrote: post #4

1 - Glowing ceilings and walls - not really, most people still use separate light fixtures 2 - Windows mostly obsolete - no 3 - Polarized glass in windows - kind of - mostly no, though some exist 4 - Opacity of glass changing based on light intensity - yes, but rare 5 - Underground housing - yes, but rare 6 - "Light-forced vegetable gardens" - yes, but rare 7 - Surface of the Earth used only for large-scale agricultu…

> 15 - Fission power supplies "well over half of the power needs of humanity" - no

I soo wish this were true. Don't how the support was for Nuclear power back in the day. But wish it were mainstream today. Nuclear engineering would've been one of the most sought after disciplines and more innovation and research could've gotten us much closer to sustained fission.

Re: Visit to the World's Fair of 2014 (1964)

#15

Post by Gaelan »

pmoriarty wrote: post #4

1 - Glowing ceilings and walls - not really, most people still use separate light fixtures 2 - Windows mostly obsolete - no 3 - Polarized glass in windows - kind of - mostly no, though some exist 4 - Opacity of glass changing based on light intensity - yes, but rare 5 - Underground housing - yes, but rare 6 - "Light-forced vegetable gardens" - yes, but rare 7 - Surface of the Earth used only for large-scale agricultu…

It's worth noting that the author differentiates between things that they thought would be commonplace (#1, for instance) and things they thought would be are mostly curiosities shown off at tech expos (#10, for instance).

Re: Visit to the World's Fair of 2014 (1964)

#16

Post by mncharity »

pmoriarty wrote: post #4

1 - Glowing ceilings and walls - not really, most people still use separate light fixtures 2 - Windows mostly obsolete - no 3 - Polarized glass in windows - kind of - mostly no, though some exist 4 - Opacity of glass changing based on light intensity - yes, but rare 5 - Underground housing - yes, but rare 6 - "Light-forced vegetable gardens" - yes, but rare 7 - Surface of the Earth used only for large-scale agricultu…

>> men will continue to withdraw from nature in order to create an environment that will suit them better.

Context of the 1964 prediction: Very limited use of AC, and of insulated windows. Hot-water radiators. Window films don't exist; limited window tinting. Daylight-equivalent electric lighting is in limited commercial use.

Confounds: Residential tech diverged from commercial/industrial. Residential still emphasizes natural light, and blends outdoors, in part due to expensive energy.

So, "yes".

>> electroluminescent panels will be in common use. Ceilings and walls will glow softly, and in a variety of colors that will change at the touch of a push button.

Context: Hanging incandescent fixtures. Introduction of hanging ceilings with embedded lighting.

Confounds: Electroluminescent tech never came together, remaining dim, short-lived, and power hungry. Gas-discharge fluorescent tube dominated. Residential remained incandescent, eventually switching to CFD and LEDs. Window film invented a couple of years later. Window film, window insulation, and AC, enabled glass walls.

Ceilings - yes (inset fixtures and diffusers). Walls - yes (glass) and no (other). Variety of colors - no/kinda (aside from 1960's transients and customized dorm rooms, only limited blackbody colors). Change - no.

So, "kinda"? The prediction bet on the wrong horse, and lost properties specific to it. But it was partially saved by changing window tech and glass walls.

>> Windows need be no more than an archaic touch, and even when present will be polarized to block out the harsh sunlight. The degree of opacity of the glass may even be made to alter automatically in accordance with the intensity of the light falling upon it.

> 2 - Windows mostly obsolete - no

... A conversation in 2034: Omari: Windows are archaic? That's silly. Li Xiu Ying: Yeah (gestures to create a shared AR window).

Windows, as a 1964-like dominating primary tech for lighting and cooling, do seem archaic.

Confounds: Window tint and window insulation reduced the downsides of windows, so high ceilings and fans went away, but windows didn't. People like natural light. Reduced importance of shades/blinds/drapes has left them mostly manual, and less common. Adjustable-opacity window tech never came together.

Archaic - kinda. Polarized - yes. Opacity alters - no.

Story: Why does the newish MIT Media Lab's facade have a lattice of bars? The building code has a 1970's limit on window percentage, to save energy. That's now obsoleted by better films, but... code.

Story: It's summer in the 1950's, and your office near the top of the Empire State Building is sweltering. What do you do? Open some windows to get a cross-ventilating breeze going, of course, what else is there?

Takeaways: Bet on trends, not single horses. It seems common when judging past predictions, to neglect the past context, and thus to underestimate how much they got right.

Re: Visit to the World's Fair of 2014 (1964)

#17

Post by topkai22 »

lisper wrote: post #10
GraffitiTim wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually pretty good for a 50 year prediction! Anyone want to make 50 predictions about 2069?

I don't know about 50, but I'll make one: the limiting factor on the widespread deployment of self-driving vehicles will turn out to be vast numbers of unemployed drivers protesting by blocking roads and staging violent attacks on self-driving vehicles. This will be resolved by introducing a tax on self-driving vehicles, the proceeds of which will be used to employ former drivers to work as security guards to protect…

I suspect we'll find that there are a surprisingly large number of things transportation workers due to today that we aren't able to automate via self driving tech that limit job losses too. Even Uber drivers spend a fair amount of time cleaning the car and dealing with various minor issues.

Re: Visit to the World's Fair of 2014 (1964)

#18

Post by idlewords »

pmoriarty wrote: post #4

1 - Glowing ceilings and walls - not really, most people still use separate light fixtures 2 - Windows mostly obsolete - no 3 - Polarized glass in windows - kind of - mostly no, though some exist 4 - Opacity of glass changing based on light intensity - yes, but rare 5 - Underground housing - yes, but rare 6 - "Light-forced vegetable gardens" - yes, but rare 7 - Surface of the Earth used only for large-scale agricultu…

There is no plan for a manned expedition to Mars, beyond "hey, let's go to Mars". Foundational breakthroughs in closed-loop life support need to happen to make such a trip possible (leaving aside the many other problems).

Re: Visit to the World's Fair of 2014 (1964)

#19

Post by nealabq »

pmoriarty wrote: post #4

1 - Glowing ceilings and walls - not really, most people still use separate light fixtures 2 - Windows mostly obsolete - no 3 - Polarized glass in windows - kind of - mostly no, though some exist 4 - Opacity of glass changing based on light intensity - yes, but rare 5 - Underground housing - yes, but rare 6 - "Light-forced vegetable gardens" - yes, but rare 7 - Surface of the Earth used only for large-scale agricultu…

#32 is in the works: https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/llcdfactsheet.final...

Re: Visit to the World's Fair of 2014 (1964)

#20

Post by JohnClark1337 »

gshdg wrote: post #13
barbecue_sauce wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would argue learning how to operate a computer does constitute computer _fundamentals_. Programming is more advanced.

A matter of how one interprets the original, I guess? > All the high-school students will be taught the fundamentals of computer technology will become proficient in binary arithmetic and will be trained to perfection in the use of the computer languages that will have developed out of those like the contemporary "Fortran".

Yeah, it's hard to say. Back then you really couldn't use a computer without knowing programming, but he's also implying that we'll learn programming in school because our only job will be to take care of the robots that are doing the real work.
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