Live data from Hacker News

Musk Can’t Dodge Tesla Cash Woes Any Longer

bloomberg.com

11–20 of 152 posts

Re: Musk Can’t Dodge Tesla Cash Woes Any Longer

#11

Ford has $150B in debt. Toyota has double that.

Ford and Tesla's market cap are about the same at $40 billion, yet Ford's total liabilities are ten times Tesla's: https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/F/ford-motor/total...

That doesn't mean Ford is ten times as likely to go under - indeed the market cap's being the same means that buyers and sellers generally believe that Ford can carry ten times as much debt as Tesla with about the same risk.

Re: Musk Can’t Dodge Tesla Cash Woes Any Longer

#12
Musk has done amazing things but his amazing ability to take risk and leverage is something that prevents me from investing into his business. The tech he is business develops is here to stay but investors may not get the return they want. There is endless stream of new ideas while not delivering fully on the old ideas (for the investors).

Tesla bet it's financial future into being able to mass produce Model 3 profitably in large quantities. The amount of debt Tesla has prevents them from retreating into smaller scale luxury cars. When Model 3 is in trouble, lets move to the taxi-scheme.

They have to dilute the stocks again and again and current owners see less of the (possible) future profits.

There will be some kind of economic slowdown or correction in the next few years. Tesla has maybe one more financing round left until the music stops.

Re: Musk Can’t Dodge Tesla Cash Woes Any Longer

#13

Ford has $150B in debt. Toyota has double that.

Yes, but Ford has revenues of $160B and Toyota has revenues of $2,642B vs Tesla's $21B. More importantly, both Toyota and Ford are profitable. In fact, both Ford and Toyota have profits larger than Tesla's entire revenue stream.

Re: Musk Can’t Dodge Tesla Cash Woes Any Longer

#14

> a fleet of self-driving vehicles that will make their way into the robotaxi service as soon as next year. So... are we living on the same planet? Does Musk seriously think that Tesla will have solved full autonomous driving, with no LIDAR, and have commercialized a functioning robotaxi service, by next year ? This is so far outside of the realm of possibility that it's like saying he's going to Pluto next week.

My theory is that it's going to work in the style of Zipcar, rather than Uber. The cars won't move without anyone in them, but you'll be able to reserve one, get in the drivers seat, and then it will drive you to your destination, presumably with human assistance should the autopilot disengage.

Re: Musk Can’t Dodge Tesla Cash Woes Any Longer

#15

Ford has $150B in debt. Toyota has double that.

But they are profitable and cash flow positive.

I still think that traditional auto makers are in big trouble, some of them in far bigger trouble than Tesla. If the trend towards electric vehicles accelerates they are potentially sitting on mountains of stranded costs.

Re: Musk Can’t Dodge Tesla Cash Woes Any Longer

#16
post #11

Ford has $150B in debt. Toyota has double that.

Ford and Tesla's market cap are about the same at $40 billion, yet Ford's total liabilities are ten times Tesla's: https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/F/ford-motor/total... That doesn't mean Ford is ten times as likely to go under - indeed the market cap's being the same means that buyers and sellers generally believe that Ford can carry ten times as much debt as Tesla with about the same risk.

"Enterprise Value", which includes debt, is a much more accurate measure of a company's size than market cap. By that measure, Ford's Enterprise Value is $190B vs Tesla's $50B.

Ford's sales are about 7.5X Tesla, and it's EV is about 4X Tesla.

Tesla's financials and market cap are not completely out of whack when compared to other car companies.

Re: Musk Can’t Dodge Tesla Cash Woes Any Longer

#17
post #10

> a fleet of self-driving vehicles that will make their way into the robotaxi service as soon as next year. So... are we living on the same planet? Does Musk seriously think that Tesla will have solved full autonomous driving, with no LIDAR, and have commercialized a functioning robotaxi service, by next year ? This is so far outside of the realm of possibility that it's like saying he's going to Pluto next week.

Also, have they given any evidence that they’ve thought through and prepared for the regulatory hurdles that a robotaxi service would entail, even if the tech problems were solved?

No, on purpose. Musk is reserving "regulatory" as the excuse that will be used when they fail to deliver: "we had everything ready, I swear, but regulators wouldn't let us launch".

Re: Musk Can’t Dodge Tesla Cash Woes Any Longer

#18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He's used to overpromising and then delivering far later than expected - it's worked so well for SpaceX. Maybe he inherited Jobs' reality distortion field?

> it's worked so well for SpaceX In Elon's biography the author mentions that in all projects he was part of he would constantly give far optimistic delivery dates.

A true engineer! :)

Re: Musk Can’t Dodge Tesla Cash Woes Any Longer

#19
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh come on, he's got a whole seven months!

19 months from now is also next year. And "as soon as" means "maybe". And as all parents know, "maybe" means "no".

Even speaking as a fan, this is an excellent summary.

Re: Musk Can’t Dodge Tesla Cash Woes Any Longer

#20

> a fleet of self-driving vehicles that will make their way into the robotaxi service as soon as next year. So... are we living on the same planet? Does Musk seriously think that Tesla will have solved full autonomous driving, with no LIDAR, and have commercialized a functioning robotaxi service, by next year ? This is so far outside of the realm of possibility that it's like saying he's going to Pluto next week.

A robotaxi isn't too far off if you limit where it can operate.

It's not infeasible to train an automated driving system specifically suited to the streets of LA or wherever. Some place where it doesn't snow, doesn't rain often, and drivers/cyclists/pedestrians are fairly predictable (at least compared to someplace like Asia).

Alternatively, a robobus, that is to say an automated system that drives from one place to the other on a highway or interstate, seems to be mostly solved.

In both cases, if the vehicles were mostly autonomous but could also be controlled remotely by a human in ambiguous cases, they would still be vastly cheaper to operate than existing taxi/bus services.

Post reply on HN