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Can Uber ever make money?

economist.com

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Re: Can Uber ever make money?

#13
post #8

Keep in mind that this may not change when driverless cars become widely available. Maintaining a fleet thousands of driverless cars may prove to be more expensive than crowdsourcing a vehicle fleet.

If uber drivers make enough to make their cars a worthwile investment, then I'd assume a fleet of driverless cars are profitable.

Do Uber drivers make enough to cover complete vehicle costs? I remember reading that after total costs of ownership (depreciation, insurance, gas, maintenance, etc) Uber drivers really aren't making much.

Re: Can Uber ever make money?

#15
There is literally no way for a mass-market taxi service to make money unless they have a monopoly, or some unexpected disruptive technology comes along that gives one company an unassailable advantage in lowering costs.

The Uber app was the original innovation, but it's not particularly innovative anymore. Besides Lyft, traditional taxi companies have similar apps in some markets.

Skirting regulation and good labor practices were also supposed to help, but that can't last once you become competitive with the establishment.

Self-driving cars were supposed to lower labor costs, but that's not going to be a thing for decades if it ever works. But even if it does, it won't be an exclusive technology. They won't be able to make any more profit from it. If their costs go down, so will everyone else's and they won't be able to undercut the competition without continuing to lose money.

Re: Can Uber ever make money?

#16
post #8

Keep in mind that this may not change when driverless cars become widely available. Maintaining a fleet thousands of driverless cars may prove to be more expensive than crowdsourcing a vehicle fleet.

If uber drivers make enough to make their cars a worthwile investment, then I'd assume a fleet of driverless cars are profitable.

Uber drivers use their cars for stuff other than Uber. It's a way to make additional money from something you already have. That would not be the case if Uber had its own fleet.

Re: Can Uber ever make money?

#17
I can only see them making money in three ways :

- They scale up massively and capture a huge fraction of the ride sharing market, thus allowing them to offer low cost / low margin rides, but making up for it by volumes : At least in India, they are in a good position, but they seem to have conceded the other markets with high potential for growth like SE Asia and China.

- They have a premium offering that is actually quite a trend-setter : Revive the Uber Black service and take it up a notch, target richer clientele which will be willing to pay a premium to ride in a much better car and with trained chauffeurs.

- They push heavily in the pooling space - this allows them to use their vehicular inventory better as well as drive up margins per ride : This doesn't seem to be a huge focus for them as of now, but it could change.

The other big change that could transform their fortunes is if they put out a viable self driving product. I do not think it'll be economically profitable, or even technologically viable in the near term.

Re: Can Uber ever make money?

#18

There is literally no way for a mass-market taxi service to make money unless they have a monopoly, or some unexpected disruptive technology comes along that gives one company an unassailable advantage in lowering costs. The Uber app was the original innovation, but it's not particularly innovative anymore. Besides Lyft, traditional taxi companies have similar apps in some markets. Skirting regulation and good labor…

If self-driving technology is mature enough to be used and there are several implementations to choose from, what stops care manufacturers to go after that market directly and undercutting everyone else?

* They have industrial facilities to build cars

* They have dealership networks to repair cars

* They have capital or can borrow easily to do it

I can even argue that all that stops car manufacturers from operating this are government regulations -- taxi medallions as well as anti-monopoly laws. Once Uber, lyft and the like undercut those regulations, someone else can undercut them.

Re: Can Uber ever make money?

#19
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If uber drivers make enough to make their cars a worthwile investment, then I'd assume a fleet of driverless cars are profitable.

Do Uber drivers make enough to cover complete vehicle costs? I remember reading that after total costs of ownership (depreciation, insurance, gas, maintenance, etc) Uber drivers really aren't making much.

As of 2018 it was something like $8.55 an hour median in the US accounting for costs of upkeep.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/mar/01/uber-lyft...

Re: Can Uber ever make money?

#20

There is literally no way for a mass-market taxi service to make money unless they have a monopoly, or some unexpected disruptive technology comes along that gives one company an unassailable advantage in lowering costs. The Uber app was the original innovation, but it's not particularly innovative anymore. Besides Lyft, traditional taxi companies have similar apps in some markets. Skirting regulation and good labor…

People are willing to pay to get driven around for relatively short distances on-demand so I'm not sure why that's an inherently unprofitable business. I assume many taxi companies and black car companies make money.

What's probably true is that they probably have to raise prices and deal with decreased volumes in at least many markets to do so--and probably grow more organically. And it won't be the kind of profitability that's expected from VC-funded companies.

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