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Is everything an MLM

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Re: Is everything an MLM

#11

Post by ben_w »

speedplane wrote: post #9
ben_w wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My expectation is that the ratio of productive workers for each retiree will be approximately constant, and the retirement age will be adjusted to match… at least, up until the next black swan or grey swan. At this rate, I expect at least one of those to happen between now and 2030.

> My expectation is that the ratio of productive workers for each retiree will be approximately constant, and the retirement age will be adjusted to match… This isn't necessarily a problem as long as the number of productive workers continues to increase.

Is there any circumstance where adjusted retirement age would not be sufficient? Even in extremis, if there were zero births and zero or negative immigration, would setting it to 130 not be sufficient?

Re: Is everything an MLM

#12

Post by trevyn »

jaggederest wrote: post #3
nostrademons wrote: post #2

Life is a pyramid scheme. Rather than figure out a way to exist in a steady-state forever, our cells divide exponentially, accumulate genetic mutations until they can't take it anymore, and then rather than fix themselves, we just make new humans and let the old one die. Humanity in developed countries at least has the kindness not to make more humans than we believe have a reasonable chance of survival, but that res…

There's another big aspect to this: the orientation of the economy towards growth. When you start asking "What happens when the population and the economy are in a steady state, where we don't expect things to increase at 2% forever", and the answers are pretty grim. Retirement systems, for example, need a certain ratio of productive workers for each retiree, and I can't figure out any math that makes sense for the n…

>Retirement systems, for example, need a certain ratio of productive workers for each retiree, and I can't figure out any math that makes sense for the next ~20 years.

Long-term systems like this are generally constantly adjusted over time to fit circumstances, and overall productivity per person is rising overall. Reframing the problem as a target quality of life vs. a target monetary amount may also help.

More generally, using history as a guide, it is unwise to rely on any human organization to keep its specific long-term promises. So, ye reap what ye sow.

Of course, the secret lying in plain sight is that happiness/well-being need not be a function of money at all.

Re: Is everything an MLM

#13

Post by quickthrower2 »

jaggederest wrote: post #3
nostrademons wrote: post #2

Life is a pyramid scheme. Rather than figure out a way to exist in a steady-state forever, our cells divide exponentially, accumulate genetic mutations until they can't take it anymore, and then rather than fix themselves, we just make new humans and let the old one die. Humanity in developed countries at least has the kindness not to make more humans than we believe have a reasonable chance of survival, but that res…

There's another big aspect to this: the orientation of the economy towards growth. When you start asking "What happens when the population and the economy are in a steady state, where we don't expect things to increase at 2% forever", and the answers are pretty grim. Retirement systems, for example, need a certain ratio of productive workers for each retiree, and I can't figure out any math that makes sense for the n…

Because growth in terms of money which has no inherent value is meaningless. The real growth is in knowledge and technology and connections. The real value is in the systems we create.

Re: Is everything an MLM

#15

Post by AznHisoka »

jaggederest wrote: post #3
nostrademons wrote: post #2

Life is a pyramid scheme. Rather than figure out a way to exist in a steady-state forever, our cells divide exponentially, accumulate genetic mutations until they can't take it anymore, and then rather than fix themselves, we just make new humans and let the old one die. Humanity in developed countries at least has the kindness not to make more humans than we believe have a reasonable chance of survival, but that res…

There's another big aspect to this: the orientation of the economy towards growth. When you start asking "What happens when the population and the economy are in a steady state, where we don't expect things to increase at 2% forever", and the answers are pretty grim. Retirement systems, for example, need a certain ratio of productive workers for each retiree, and I can't figure out any math that makes sense for the n…

1 thing I never understood is this obsession towards jobs growth. Every month, when this number is released, everyone wants this number to be better than the last month.

Yet if everyone who wants a job eventually gets one, this number will eventually go to zero. And if it goes to zero, that would be a good thing. Yet everyone panics if the number of jobs created that month goes down.

People are freaking crazy.

Re: Is everything an MLM

#16

Post by [deleted] »

jaggederest wrote: post #3
nostrademons wrote: post #2

Life is a pyramid scheme. Rather than figure out a way to exist in a steady-state forever, our cells divide exponentially, accumulate genetic mutations until they can't take it anymore, and then rather than fix themselves, we just make new humans and let the old one die. Humanity in developed countries at least has the kindness not to make more humans than we believe have a reasonable chance of survival, but that res…

There's another big aspect to this: the orientation of the economy towards growth. When you start asking "What happens when the population and the economy are in a steady state, where we don't expect things to increase at 2% forever", and the answers are pretty grim. Retirement systems, for example, need a certain ratio of productive workers for each retiree, and I can't figure out any math that makes sense for the n…

[deleted]

Re: Is everything an MLM

#17

Post by njepa »

jaggederest wrote: post #3
nostrademons wrote: post #2

Life is a pyramid scheme. Rather than figure out a way to exist in a steady-state forever, our cells divide exponentially, accumulate genetic mutations until they can't take it anymore, and then rather than fix themselves, we just make new humans and let the old one die. Humanity in developed countries at least has the kindness not to make more humans than we believe have a reasonable chance of survival, but that res…

There's another big aspect to this: the orientation of the economy towards growth. When you start asking "What happens when the population and the economy are in a steady state, where we don't expect things to increase at 2% forever", and the answers are pretty grim. Retirement systems, for example, need a certain ratio of productive workers for each retiree, and I can't figure out any math that makes sense for the n…

I see what you are saying, but I largely disagree with the premise.

We have had, and continue to have, enormous growth through technical and organizational achievements.

Growth is relative, but life mostly remain constant. The requirements to house, cloth and transport people remain largely the same.

The idea that we can't have retirement becomes absurd viewed over a lifetime of spending on housing, insurance and other fees. The average city dweller today gives away hundreds of thousands if not millions in rents, interest rates and other inflated costs.

Re: Is everything an MLM

#18

Post by mhluongo »

AznHisoka wrote: post #15
jaggederest wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's another big aspect to this: the orientation of the economy towards growth. When you start asking "What happens when the population and the economy are in a steady state, where we don't expect things to increase at 2% forever", and the answers are pretty grim. Retirement systems, for example, need a certain ratio of productive workers for each retiree, and I can't figure out any math that makes sense for the n…

1 thing I never understood is this obsession towards jobs growth. Every month, when this number is released, everyone wants this number to be better than the last month. Yet if everyone who wants a job eventually gets one, this number will eventually go to zero. And if it goes to zero, that would be a good thing. Yet everyone panics if the number of jobs created that month goes down. People are freaking crazy.

> Yet if everyone who wants a job eventually gets one, this number will eventually go to zero. And if it goes to zero, that would be a good thing. Yet everyone panics if the number of jobs created that month goes down.

Unless there's a labor shortage?

Re: Is everything an MLM

#19

Post by soniman »

Any decent grad department will give the grad students a tuition waiver and stipend so it's actually the opposite of a pyramid scheme. In a pyramid scheme, you pay to join the pyramid. In academia, the pyramid pays you. I spent two years in a grad department in Boston that paid me to hang out and read books and occasionally grade papers. It probably wasn't the best life decision but there wasn't any exploitation.

Re: Is everything an MLM

#20

Post by xondono »

AznHisoka wrote: post #15
jaggederest wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's another big aspect to this: the orientation of the economy towards growth. When you start asking "What happens when the population and the economy are in a steady state, where we don't expect things to increase at 2% forever", and the answers are pretty grim. Retirement systems, for example, need a certain ratio of productive workers for each retiree, and I can't figure out any math that makes sense for the n…

1 thing I never understood is this obsession towards jobs growth. Every month, when this number is released, everyone wants this number to be better than the last month. Yet if everyone who wants a job eventually gets one, this number will eventually go to zero. And if it goes to zero, that would be a good thing. Yet everyone panics if the number of jobs created that month goes down. People are freaking crazy.

It’s a known phenomenon in economy. The modern name is “make-work bias”.
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