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Nassim Talebs case against Nate Silver is bad math

m.nautil.us

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Re: Nassim Talebs case against Nate Silver is bad math

#11

Post by shoguning »

kevinventullo wrote: post #6

What's the probability that these guys are friends in real life who both mutually benefit from the popularity of their public feud?

Possible... but I don't think so. I believe the hatred is pretty visceral. For one Taleb is/was pro-Trump, Silver definitely not. Taleb, despite being a professor/author/elite in his own way is pretty anti-elitist in rhetoric, again very different from Silver. Personality-wise, Taleb is pretty abrasive and has very few 'friends' in the public sphere that I know of, despite the high profile of his work--this is regardless if you think he is right or wrong.

Re: Nassim Talebs case against Nate Silver is bad math

#14

Post by andrewla »

As I understand it, the feud in its current form started from a tweet from Dinesh D'Souza [1] in which he interpreted Nate Silver's statement that "Dems, GOP winning House are 'both extremely possible'" to mean that they had gone from an 80% chance of winning to a 50% chance.

Taleb inexplicably chose this as the hill to die on [2] and wrote a lengthy and technical paper to refute, and replied (on the [2] thread) "When someone says are event and its opposite are extremely possible I infer either 1) 50/50 or 2) the predictor is shamelessly hedging, in other words, BS."

I've often found Taleb's ideas to be profound and interesting, and unfortunately offset by his arrogance and occasionally cryptic pronouncements and colorful colloquial "Brooklyn-ese" intentional misspellings of words (like "gabish" for "capisce"). But in this case I'm having trouble following what his criticism even is -- forecasts, especially probability forecasts, are hard, and evaluating them is hard -- the dimensions of skill vs. calibration vs. precision are hard to evaluate, and Nate Silver does a fairly good job of describing the tension.

[1] https://twitter.com/DineshDSouza/status/1059147114826162177

[2] https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1059202026184282113

Re: Nassim Talebs case against Nate Silver is bad math

#15

Post by kiernanmcgowan »

Whilst the fighting between the two is childish, I've always found this interesting in a "statistics vs probability" perspective.

They may look like similar fields of art, but are radically different in their approaches and how they seek to understand the world.

It also doesn't help that probability theory takes digs at statistics with rules such as the "Law of the unconscious statistician"

Re: Nassim Talebs case against Nate Silver is bad math

#16

Post by brian_cloutier »

KorematsuFred wrote: post #8

I have zero respect for election forecasters because I think they are not any better than astrologers. Nate silver has used the word probability in a way that is not consistent with mathematical definition of probability so often in this context. Taleb despite being brilliant mathematician is actually pretty mediocre when it comes to real world. A lot of his "discoveries" such as "skin in the game" are well known to…

Do you have an example of a time where Nate Silver has shown a misunderstanding of probability? Everything I've read by him has seemed informed.

Re: Nassim Talebs case against Nate Silver is bad math

#17

Post by r00fus »

baddox wrote: post #10
sincerely wrote: post #2

On the other hand, he managed to get Nate Silver so mad that he called Taleb a cuck. So who can tell who is actually right

Each person's claims are either right or wrong (assuming they are objective claims), regardless of any attribute or action of the person making the claim.

There are situations where they can be both correct or wrong based on how you judge them.

Re: Nassim Talebs case against Nate Silver is bad math

#19

Post by vertis »

KorematsuFred wrote: post #8

I have zero respect for election forecasters because I think they are not any better than astrologers. Nate silver has used the word probability in a way that is not consistent with mathematical definition of probability so often in this context. Taleb despite being brilliant mathematician is actually pretty mediocre when it comes to real world. A lot of his "discoveries" such as "skin in the game" are well known to…

I've found twitter not to be a good forum for this kind of thing. Leaving the current pair alone, I've had a few times where more public figures can't determine easily that you're not one of the trolls, that and the fact that they almost certainly don't follow you and have an understanding of your context and goodwill.

For the most part, I've stopped following anyone that doesn't follow me in return on twitter.

Taking these conversations to other platforms where possible as well (e.g. Slack/Telegram groups).

Re: Nassim Talebs case against Nate Silver is bad math

#20

Post by LeanderK »

KorematsuFred wrote: post #8

I have zero respect for election forecasters because I think they are not any better than astrologers. Nate silver has used the word probability in a way that is not consistent with mathematical definition of probability so often in this context. Taleb despite being brilliant mathematician is actually pretty mediocre when it comes to real world. A lot of his "discoveries" such as "skin in the game" are well known to…

can you detail your cristicism of Nate Silver?

I mean he's not a researcher trying to predict the election and somehow has to explain everythong the layman. So some derivation from the mathmatical definitions of probability are expected, i think (the mathematical definitions in its full glory are suprisingly complicated).

I always like FiveTheirghtyEight, mostly because the plots are so beautiful and it never struck me as blatantly wrong.

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