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Can China Turn the Middle of Nowhere into the Center of the World Economy?

nytimes.com

11–20 of 94 posts

Re: Can China Turn the Middle of Nowhere into the Center of the World Economy?

#11
post #6

China appears to be ensuring that their economy continues to grow rapidly with the Belt and Road initiative. By some measures they have already passed the United States. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2017-10-18/who-ha... At some point soon, shouldn't the ability to grow the economy 6-10% a year become impossible?

The real growth rate is never the same as the official published rate. It was said last year China only grew less than 2%.

I said China grew negatively for years and the people are still living in caves

Re: Can China Turn the Middle of Nowhere into the Center of the World Economy?

#12
post #5

> that its promoters say is poised to become the next Dubai I think its promoters have some funny ideas about what Dubai is and why people go there

Why _do_ people go there, and why don't you think Chinese developers can replicate that?

Dubai is fueled by oil money, something that China doesn't have a lot of (relative to their population size). You can explain a lot by looking at the oil money to population ratio of various polities. The ebb and flow of the balance sheets of Texas, Saudi Arabia, Dubai, Venezuela and Norway all have a lot to do with the price of oil and their local production. In many places around the world, successful socialism means oil production, and failed socialism means failures in oil production. Government-owned oil reserves allow countries to "cheat" the taxes-versus-services dilemma, but that never lasts for long. Presently Saudi Arabia is feeling the pressure of decline and may not be able to pay their people to be happy for much longer. Venezuela is practically collapsing right now, and it all started when they had a series of oil production disasters that crippled their national reserves. Texas and Norway might be better prepared, because they have been investing the money, Texas in roads and education and Norway in their country in general.

Re: Can China Turn the Middle of Nowhere into the Center of the World Economy?

#13
post #6

China appears to be ensuring that their economy continues to grow rapidly with the Belt and Road initiative. By some measures they have already passed the United States. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2017-10-18/who-ha... At some point soon, shouldn't the ability to grow the economy 6-10% a year become impossible?

I have a feeling if some production switches to India it might put a damper on Chinas plans. That would slow their growth a lot.

I am not going to argue if the Trump tariffs on China are good or bad. But they might force some companies to explore alternative manufactuing facilities with countries friendlier to the US. Apple looking at india as a possible move and some other large companies i have seen articles that are exploring the possibiliy.

This is the problem with being dependant on other countries. China desperately needs exports to sustain their growth as a nation. U.S. needs China because we are use to overbuying cheap goods, however it goes back to supply and demand, if their are other suppliers it places the entity on the demand side in a much safer place. Just my opinion, i am not an economics guy so i am probably wrong.

Re: Can China Turn the Middle of Nowhere into the Center of the World Economy?

#14

This became [Flagged][Dead] pretty quickly, although vouching for it seems to have fixed it again. How does that happen?

I imagine some people are getting a bit tired of this topic, or at least the rate at which stories are making it on to the front page, and honestly, the HN community doesn't have all that much to add to this discussion. Heck, it's not particularly clear the NY Times does either. It's a huge topic that probably nobody really knows in the end.

Re: Can China Turn the Middle of Nowhere into the Center of the World Economy?

#15
This reminds me of Zbigniew Brzezinski's The Grant Chessboard. It describes how the US secured its empire. China is not only building for economic growth but also building up valuable relationships and influence. Also keep in mind that one of Rome's greatest military innovations might have been its roads.

Meanwhile the US is seems to be played by everyone from the outside and tearing itself apart from the inside. It seems like we aren't only losing the fight for global hegemony but barely actively taking part.

Re: Can China Turn the Middle of Nowhere into the Center of the World Economy?

#17
post #5

> that its promoters say is poised to become the next Dubai I think its promoters have some funny ideas about what Dubai is and why people go there

Why _do_ people go there, and why don't you think Chinese developers can replicate that?

Dubai has no banking treaties or extradition treaties with the US.

So combine that with it's oil wealth and a lot of dollars sloshing around to begin with - they have created a zone that attracts zillions of ill gotten dollars, a lot of it related to oil.

Since the mid 20th century there has been some transparency on resource extraction among nation states, like the US, UK tc. Then regional nationalist leaders have sought to take those over 'for the people'. But in reality those leaders are often more corrupt than their colonial overlords.

So they, shady bankers, and all sorts of actors need to do their banking somewhere.

When you hear about the Afghani Army General who is not paid very much is actually a millionaire, where do you think he keeps is money?

'Cleaned' dirty money makes it's way to London, Switzerland or Hong Kong, but while it's obviously attached to someone or there is no legal cover, it sits in places Dubai.

And FYI all of that money drives a lot of 'legit' expansion, particularly in real estate.

Re: Can China Turn the Middle of Nowhere into the Center of the World Economy?

#18
post #6

China appears to be ensuring that their economy continues to grow rapidly with the Belt and Road initiative. By some measures they have already passed the United States. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2017-10-18/who-ha... At some point soon, shouldn't the ability to grow the economy 6-10% a year become impossible?

I have a feeling if some production switches to India it might put a damper on Chinas plans. That would slow their growth a lot. I am not going to argue if the Trump tariffs on China are good or bad. But they might force some companies to explore alternative manufactuing facilities with countries friendlier to the US. Apple looking at india as a possible move and some other large companies i have seen articles that a…

I think if India actually made sense as a place for western companies to invest in and build factories, they would have done it long before now.

Re: Can China Turn the Middle of Nowhere into the Center of the World Economy?

#19
Unlike so much of the ugly narrative, even the ugly bits and pieces of this project (i.e. buying up ports, putting countries into debt traps etc.) - this one is different because there's a real, underlying material reality here.

It's rational economic impetus, and probably a 'good idea' for the Chinese.

Frankly, it may be good for many more than the Chinese.

a) Other nations will be connected

b) It can be 'two way' as well.

Just like the UK, and later the US controls the high seas for the benefit of every merchant, and developed important projects like the Panama Canal and ensures everyone, even economic competitors have access (Russian, Iranian warships through the Suez during peacetime, even though the US has de-facto control), China is to some extent doing the same.

The Belt-and-Road is 'what China needs' but it will also be beneficial to others so long as it does not get politically messy.

Re: Can China Turn the Middle of Nowhere into the Center of the World Economy?

#20
This article exemplifies everything wrong with the nytimes and journalism today.

1. It's asking me a question. Don't ask me a question.

2. It doesn't add anything new or informative. Pretty much a rehash of everything that's been stated repeatedly for the past 8 years.

3. Boring standard propaganda. It's interesting how the BRI is covered by pro-china, anti-china and "neutral" ( if possible ) propaganda organizations.

4. Written like an annoying travel diary than an article.

5. Article by Ben Mauk who obviously has insights to khazakstan or china right? In a world that "is more connected than ever before", the nytimes couldn't find anyone other than some guy from europe to report on this? Does the nytimes hire an indonesian journalist to cover brexit?

6. Nothing gained from reading the article. Are we any closer to answering the question? Did we learn anything new? Other than Abaiuly is a handsome liaison to opinion makers and potential investors?

You'd find more insight and "truth" watching youtube vlogs/reports/etc from the locals/travels or even finding these people on gaming chats and talking to them directly.

It is correct that the silk road isn't an actual route but a bunch of routes that changed throughout history. Historically, it was more of an idea of a connection and trade between the civilizations of china, india and the middle east. But the idea that it wasn't controlled or administered by anyone is simply not true. Whatever empires that controlled the region ( most famously the mongol empire ) controlled and administered these routes.

We ( and the british before us ) have shown that naval power and naval trade routes define global economic and political strength. Rather than china's overland silk road ambitions, I'd be more focused on their naval trade route ambitions. Especially if global warming opens up the northwest passage or the arctic siberian passage.

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