I guess what's surprising to me here is that in a nation of 1.5B people, they only have 250M homes.
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A Fifth of China’s Homes Are Empty (2018)
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Re: A Fifth of China’s Homes Are Empty (2018)
#12I guess what's surprising to me here is that in a nation of 1.5B people, they only have 250M homes.
That surprised me also but that is 6 people per home. Considering the institution of the extended family is probably not completely dead, that doesn't seem altogether implausible. Edit: Given this - it seems like China might be able to more easily absorb this many apartments being put on the market. One could imagine a lot of people entering a modern world where they wouldn't live with their parents (or child).
According to [1], there were about 814 million urban residents in 2017. Assuming an increase upto 850 over 2018 (and it's probably lower than that, checking the historic increase), the average occupancy is closer to 3.4, which is more realistic.
[1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/278566/urban-and-rural-p...
Re: A Fifth of China’s Homes Are Empty (2018)
#13Earlier quoted context omitted.
That surprised me also but that is 6 people per home. Considering the institution of the extended family is probably not completely dead, that doesn't seem altogether implausible. Edit: Given this - it seems like China might be able to more easily absorb this many apartments being put on the market. One could imagine a lot of people entering a modern world where they wouldn't live with their parents (or child).
One child policy since 1979 https://wikipedia.org/wiki/One-child_policy
Yes, but an extended family spans multiple generations. You can easily get over ten people even if the last generation consists of one person per pair of parents.
Still, I'm sure there's a bunch of people that only live together on paper, or multiple families that share a house because they're poor, and the like.
Re: A Fifth of China’s Homes Are Empty (2018)
#14Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's just the _urban_ homes.
What percentage of the population is urban these days?
Answered in the other sub-thread (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18936054)
Re: A Fifth of China’s Homes Are Empty (2018)
#15And yet some of the most expensive real estate in the world.
Re: A Fifth of China’s Homes Are Empty (2018)
#16A lot of $$$ was stored away in housing assets in China. When I was in Chongqing in 2014 it was clear -- building for building's sake with the expectation that these empty properties would ultimately accrue in value and demand would exist at some point...
I think much of this open housing is in new urban cities -- the 10M person cities that are mostly west and on the Silk Road built to support trade (but not quite built because of actual need just yet)
Re: A Fifth of China’s Homes Are Empty (2018)
#17For context, it's been estimated that there are around 18M vacant homes in the US, though it's difficult to find a reliable source for this information.
https://www.google.com/search?q=how+many+vacant+homes+are+th...
Re: A Fifth of China’s Homes Are Empty (2018)
#18(2018)
Re: A Fifth of China’s Homes Are Empty (2018)
#19While problematic in the short term, the scale of urbanization and decreasing domicile density alongside rising GDP/capita will allow China to eat through the slack inventory in the coming years. They are adding about 1 NY metropolitan area worth of urban dwellers per yr:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/278566/urban-and-rural-p...
Urban region Rural regions
2016 792.98 589.73
2015 771.16 603.46
2014 749.16 618.66
2013 731.11 629.61
2012 711.82 642.22
2011 690.79 656.56
2010 669.78 671.13
2009 645.12 689.38
2008 624.03 703.99
Re: A Fifth of China’s Homes Are Empty (2018)
#20A lot of $$$ was stored away in housing assets in China. When I was in Chongqing in 2014 it was clear -- building for building's sake with the expectation that these empty properties would ultimately accrue in value and demand would exist at some point... I think much of this open housing is in new urban cities -- the 10M person cities that are mostly west and on the Silk Road built to support trade (but not quite bu…
I don't think so, according to what I read/learned it had to do with defaulted loans.
In a "us knows us" world, the big loans are given to people approving the regime.
The loan is 10 million for example, the collateral is the property.
The loan is 50% used and defaults.
5 million profit.
Some articles around shadow banking, if you want to look it up