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Google's search business to be bigger than Windows

alleyinsider.com

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Re: Google's search business to be bigger than Windows

#11

Post by systems »

mattmaroon wrote: post #2

Just because something is bigger than Windows doesn't mean MS should compete. The automotive industry is probably bigger than Windows. Maybe they should start making cars?

okay, the main point in what you are saying is true.

if a company is working in a market that is reaching maturity or decline, it should look for a new market where it can invest its effort

but the trick is simple, MS have certain competencies (skills) the new market must be a market where its competencies would be relevant ... the even trickier part is, the relevence must not be so obvious, the product can be completly different, but the needed skills could be same

for example, Dell is good at complex assemblies, so maybe dell, can start assembling cars, instead of PCs, because a car can be customized in ways comparable to a PC

of course this is just an example, but you get the idea

Re: Google's search business to be bigger than Windows

#12

Post by edw519 »

bilbo0s wrote: post #6
edw519 wrote: post #5

Microsoft doesn't want to make the same mistake IBM did. IBM enjoyed 70% market share in the enterprise for 30 years. They thought it would last forever. Until the PC came along. But they didn't take it seriously and look what happened. Microsoft knows as well as anyone that the days of thick clients and proprietary software are numbered. So they'll milk that cow as long as they can. No one knows for sure what's goin…

IBM is a sleeper company, which is what microsoft is becoming, which is where the majority of the wealth in this nation is at. I have read the old articles from the 80's and 90's that said that Microsoft would supplant IBM. It is now 2008, and Microsoft generates about US$12B a quarter where IBM is doing right around US$24B a quarter. In other words we are still waiting. IBM made a decision to GIVE microsoft a market…

Mary Maxwell Gates was never an IBM employee. She was on United Way's executive committee at the same time as then IBM CEO John Akers. Their casual conversation led to IBM's introduction to Microsoft.

IBM never meant to give anything to anyone. They were as ruthless then as Microsoft is now. IBM, along with most of the rest of the enterprise world, never imagined the microcomputer as anything but a toy. They didn't even enter the market until 6 years after Apple.

In 1980, IBM was a hardware company. Today they are a service company. The makeovers in between were not painless and were not by choice. Just for not taking the PC seriously.

In 1980, you were as likely to find a job in a Fortune 500 company as anywhere else. Not anymore. New jobs are being created at a much faster rate by smaller, more nimble companies. After all, economies of scale don't mean as much in service economies. These smaller companies don't have the same decision making matrix as the enterprises and will use SaaS. Look at Salesforce.com.

Re: Google's search business to be bigger than Windows

#13

Post by bilbo0s »

edw519 wrote: post #12
bilbo0s wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IBM is a sleeper company, which is what microsoft is becoming, which is where the majority of the wealth in this nation is at. I have read the old articles from the 80's and 90's that said that Microsoft would supplant IBM. It is now 2008, and Microsoft generates about US$12B a quarter where IBM is doing right around US$24B a quarter. In other words we are still waiting. IBM made a decision to GIVE microsoft a market…

Mary Maxwell Gates was never an IBM employee. She was on United Way's executive committee at the same time as then IBM CEO John Akers. Their casual conversation led to IBM's introduction to Microsoft. IBM never meant to give anything to anyone. They were as ruthless then as Microsoft is now. IBM, along with most of the rest of the enterprise world, never imagined the microcomputer as anything but a toy. They didn't e…

Good point on Mary Gates, though my material point was that only Bill Gates was going to get the contract. Any one else would have faced significant challenges. Also, given the fact that Bill was in his early twenties at the time, I suspect, and I think you do too, that those conversations were anything but casual.

Additionally, IBM has been a services company for over a hundred years. With the greatest service rendered at the Nuremberg trials in my opinion. Hardware has been a way for them to sell services for quite some time. That said, a review of their historical financials, will bear out the fact that they have made far more money on service and support than hardware. That is true if you zoom in per year as well by the way. The computer industry emerged around the 1950s, and IBM was the guy selling the most of them, it's true. But, take a look into their training, service and support contracts if you want to see some serious revenue growth charts.

As to your last point, it is the same point made by Microsoft fanboys in the 80s. It is, in a way, the original 'long tail' argument. It has merit, in that companies that can monopolize the long tail, as Microsoft has done, will make a lot of money. But the fact remains that even with its 'long tail' monopolization, Microsoft still generates less revenue than IBM. FAR less. Why? Because the smaller companies are not willing to pay as much as larger organizations. Which is why they choose Microsoft, it is cheaper, and it is good enough.

Now your assertion is that they will choose Google in the future, because it will be cheaper still, and good enough.

Consider, however, what happens as these customers get more and more frugal. Suppose everyone on the long tail thinks that your product should not cost as much as Microsoft's. Or let's suppose that they believe that everything you get over the internet should be ... say ... free. The amount of money that the monopolizer can generate goes down. But IBM's service and support contracts stay the same price for the big guys! That's the beauty of being IBM. You always win in the end.

Re: Google's search business to be bigger than Windows

#14

Post by breck »

mattmaroon wrote: post #7
mixmax wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The difference is that the automative industry won't undermine Microsofts businessmodel , but Google might. If they look a few years down the line they should definitely compete against Google.

That too seems to be mere speculation with no evidence or even sound reasoning supporting it. Nobody has yet presented a compelling picture of how search will stop MS from selling copies of Windows. It's no more accurate to say Google could compete in the OS space than it is to say MS could in search. And don't even get me started on Office.

I agree. Especially about Office. I can't believe Alley Insider called GoogleDocs a direct competitor to Office. I see how Google Docs competes with Microsoft for the market of people that prefer to make spreadsheets and documents with 90's era tools, but for users who care about their work Office is much more powerful. The only cool thing about Google Docs is that it allows you to easily share lousy documents and spreadsheets with your friends.

Re: Google's search business to be bigger than Windows

#15

Post by kijiki »

breck wrote: post #14
mattmaroon wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That too seems to be mere speculation with no evidence or even sound reasoning supporting it. Nobody has yet presented a compelling picture of how search will stop MS from selling copies of Windows. It's no more accurate to say Google could compete in the OS space than it is to say MS could in search. And don't even get me started on Office.

I agree. Especially about Office. I can't believe Alley Insider called GoogleDocs a direct competitor to Office. I see how Google Docs competes with Microsoft for the market of people that prefer to make spreadsheets and documents with 90's era tools, but for users who care about their work Office is much more powerful. The only cool thing about Google Docs is that it allows you to easily share lousy documents and sp…

There is a book you might find illuminating: http://www.amazon.com/Innovators-Dilemma-Revolutionary-Busin... also, the essay "worse is better".

Re: Google's search business to be bigger than Windows

#16

Post by bdouglas »

is it google's search business that's bigger, or the ad portion?

just how is bigger really defined?

the search business per se, doesn't really generate revenue in the same category as the ad portion.

if we're really talking about the revenue from the ad portion, then you need to consider what might throw a wrench in the advertising model being run by google. i can easily imagine a few that could have serious implications of the cash cow that's the google ad engine..

so just what is meant by "being bigger than microsoft"???

peace

Re: Google's search business to be bigger than Windows

#18

Post by breck »

kijiki wrote: post #15
breck wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree. Especially about Office. I can't believe Alley Insider called GoogleDocs a direct competitor to Office. I see how Google Docs competes with Microsoft for the market of people that prefer to make spreadsheets and documents with 90's era tools, but for users who care about their work Office is much more powerful. The only cool thing about Google Docs is that it allows you to easily share lousy documents and sp…

There is a book you might find illuminating: http://www.amazon.com/Innovators-Dilemma-Revolutionary-Busin... also, the essay "worse is better".

I understand your point, but I think it is much easier for Microsoft to add better online collaboration to Office than for Google to add the extremely robust and powerful features of Excel to GoogleDocs. I think there is a market for GoogleDocs, but I don't think it's going to cut into Office's $$. GoogleDocs doesn't offer anything that Office '98 did besides online collaboration. I don't think many people would give up the office suite for GD, and as I said before--Microsoft has the hard part done--online collab is a lot easier.
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