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Geoffrey Hinton and Demis Hassabis: AGI is nowhere close to being a reality

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Re: Geoffrey Hinton and Demis Hassabis: AGI is nowhere close to being a reality

#11

Post by eej71 »

siekmanj wrote: post #7
yters wrote: post #6

As I always ask regarding this sort of story, why do we believe human intelligence is computable? The only answer I've heard is the materialist presupposition and sneers at any other metaphysic as "magic," which is not exactly a valid form of argument. As an alternative, the human mind could be some sort of halting oracle. That's a well defined entity in computer science which cannot be reduced to Turing computation,…

We know the brain is doing something - if you don't want to call it computation, then you might as well call it magic.

Seems like a false alternative between computation and magic.

Re: Geoffrey Hinton and Demis Hassabis: AGI is nowhere close to being a reality

#12

Post by yters »

siekmanj wrote: post #7
yters wrote: post #6

As I always ask regarding this sort of story, why do we believe human intelligence is computable? The only answer I've heard is the materialist presupposition and sneers at any other metaphysic as "magic," which is not exactly a valid form of argument. As an alternative, the human mind could be some sort of halting oracle. That's a well defined entity in computer science which cannot be reduced to Turing computation,…

We know the brain is doing something - if you don't want to call it computation, then you might as well call it magic.

There are other possibilities. For example, there can be an immaterial mind that operates as a halting oracle and interfaces with the world through the brain. Halting oracles are well defined, and we can empirically test for their existence. So, no reason why we have to assume everything humans do is reducible to some sort of automata. The only reason we make the assumption is because of prior materialistic commitments.

UPDATE: I've been rate limited for some reason, so here is my response whether the mind intuitively seems to be a halting oracle.

1. It's obvious there are an infinite number of integers, because whatever number I think of I can add one to it. A Turing machine has to be given the axiom of infinity to make this kind of inference, it cannot derive it in any way. This intuitively looks like an example of the halting oracle at work in my mind. Or, an even more basic practical example: if I do something and it doesn't work, I try something else. Unlike the game AIs that repeatedly try to walk through walls.

2. We programmers write halting programs with great regularity. So, it seems like we are decent at solving the halting problem. Also, note that it is not necessary to solve every problem in order to be an uncomputable halting oracle. All that is necessary is being capable of solving an uncomputable subset of the halting problems. So, the fact that we cannot solve some problems does not imply we are not halting oracles.

Re: Geoffrey Hinton and Demis Hassabis: AGI is nowhere close to being a reality

#14

Post by dvt »

yters wrote: post #12
siekmanj wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We know the brain is doing something - if you don't want to call it computation, then you might as well call it magic.

There are other possibilities. For example, there can be an immaterial mind that operates as a halting oracle and interfaces with the world through the brain. Halting oracles are well defined, and we can empirically test for their existence. So, no reason why we have to assume everything humans do is reducible to some sort of automata. The only reason we make the assumption is because of prior materialistic commitmen…

I just want to add that materialistic commitments don't even necessarily imply computability. Entropy, for example, doesn't seem to be computable[1].

[1] https://arxiv.org/pdf/0808.1678.pdf

Re: Geoffrey Hinton and Demis Hassabis: AGI is nowhere close to being a reality

#15

Post by hackernudes »

yters wrote: post #6

As I always ask regarding this sort of story, why do we believe human intelligence is computable? The only answer I've heard is the materialist presupposition and sneers at any other metaphysic as "magic," which is not exactly a valid form of argument. As an alternative, the human mind could be some sort of halting oracle. That's a well defined entity in computer science which cannot be reduced to Turing computation,…

This line of reasoning can be applied to almost any fundamental scientific discovery before it was made.

Why do we believe man can make fire? Well, dammit, we WANT to make fire. Let's figure out how to do it!

Finally, if we were able to explain the brain well with "metaphysics" it would then be just "physics". It seems that all you are saying here is that there is a mechanism that is not yet understood and it may be fundamentally different than other things we have studied so far (which seems unlikely, I might add).

Re: Geoffrey Hinton and Demis Hassabis: AGI is nowhere close to being a reality

#16

Post by frabcus »

yters wrote: post #12
siekmanj wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We know the brain is doing something - if you don't want to call it computation, then you might as well call it magic.

There are other possibilities. For example, there can be an immaterial mind that operates as a halting oracle and interfaces with the world through the brain. Halting oracles are well defined, and we can empirically test for their existence. So, no reason why we have to assume everything humans do is reducible to some sort of automata. The only reason we make the assumption is because of prior materialistic commitmen…

Roger Penrose basically suggests what you say in "The Emperor's New Mind". Roughly, it says that the brain (likely, according to him) uses quantum computation, and so we can't make an AI out of a classical computer.

The practical flaw with this argument, of course, is that you could instead make an AI that itself uses quantum computation. I asked Roger Penrose about this at a university philosophy meetup over 20 years ago, and he agreed.

Likewise, if there is some kind of halting oracle, perhaps we can work out how the brain creates and connects to that oracle, and make our AI do the same.

Meanwhile, there is no physiological or computational evidence for this possibility. We should keep hunting though, as that's the same thing as understanding the detail of how the brain works!

Re: Geoffrey Hinton and Demis Hassabis: AGI is nowhere close to being a reality

#17

Post by karmasimida »

And no one should be surprised by this. The NN advancement of late doesn't help addressing human-style symbolic reasoning at all. All we have is a much more powerful function approximator with a drastic increased capacity (very deep networks with billions of parameters) and scalable training scheme (SGD and its variants).

Such architecture works great for differentiable data, such's images/audios, but the improvement on natural language tasks are only incremental.

I was thinking maybe DeepMind's RL+DL is the way leads to AGI, since it does offer an elegant and complete framework. But seems like even DeepMind had trouble to get it working to more realistic scenarios, so maybe our modelling of intelligence is still hopelessly romantic.

Re: Geoffrey Hinton and Demis Hassabis: AGI is nowhere close to being a reality

#18

Post by yters »

hackernudes wrote: post #15
yters wrote: post #6

As I always ask regarding this sort of story, why do we believe human intelligence is computable? The only answer I've heard is the materialist presupposition and sneers at any other metaphysic as "magic," which is not exactly a valid form of argument. As an alternative, the human mind could be some sort of halting oracle. That's a well defined entity in computer science which cannot be reduced to Turing computation,…

This line of reasoning can be applied to almost any fundamental scientific discovery before it was made. Why do we believe man can make fire? Well, dammit, we WANT to make fire. Let's figure out how to do it! Finally, if we were able to explain the brain well with "metaphysics" it would then be just "physics". It seems that all you are saying here is that there is a mechanism that is not yet understood and it may be…

Well, if we forced our presuppositions on our experiments we would not have discovered gravitation, electricity, relativity, quantum mechanics, etc. Each of those advances is a metaphysical paradigm shift over previous views of reality. E.g. the original materialism was the billiard ball model with a random swerve, due to Epicurus. No one believes in the original materialism anymore, since it has been falsified in so many ways. Instead, we have redefined materialism to include a whole host of causal forces that were previously ignored or unknown.

Similarly we can mathematically and empirically differentiate between halting oracles and Turing machines, so why not leave both possibilities open as scientific explanations, instead of doubling down on the Turing machine model? Call halting oracles materialistic if it makes you feel better.

Re: Geoffrey Hinton and Demis Hassabis: AGI is nowhere close to being a reality

#19

Post by yters »

frabcus wrote: post #16
yters wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are other possibilities. For example, there can be an immaterial mind that operates as a halting oracle and interfaces with the world through the brain. Halting oracles are well defined, and we can empirically test for their existence. So, no reason why we have to assume everything humans do is reducible to some sort of automata. The only reason we make the assumption is because of prior materialistic commitmen…

Roger Penrose basically suggests what you say in "The Emperor's New Mind". Roughly, it says that the brain (likely, according to him) uses quantum computation, and so we can't make an AI out of a classical computer. The practical flaw with this argument, of course, is that you could instead make an AI that itself uses quantum computation. I asked Roger Penrose about this at a university philosophy meetup over 20 year…

Well, quantum computation is weaker than a nondeterministic Turing machine, so not the same thing I'm saying. Penrose correctly identifies the mind cannot be a deterministic Turing machine, but his invocation of quantum mechanics does not solve the problem he points out. A DTM can simulate an NTM and hence anything inbetween, so the inbetween of quantum computation does not solve anything.

The fundamental problem Penrose identifies boils down to the halting problem, which requires a halting oracle to be solved. Hence, a halting oracle is the best explanation for the human mind, and no form of computation, quantum or otherwise, suffices.

UPDATE:

Since I'm rate limited, here is my answer to the replier's comment:

A partial answer: the mind has access to the concept of infinity, and can identify new, consistent axioms. Other possibilities: future causality and ability to change the fundamental probability distribution.

But, it's also important to note that we don't have to answer the "how" question in order to identify halting oracles as a viable explanation. We often identify new phenomena and anomalies without being able to explain them, so the identification is a first step.

Re: Geoffrey Hinton and Demis Hassabis: AGI is nowhere close to being a reality

#20

Post by odyssey7 »

karmasimida wrote: post #17

And no one should be surprised by this. The NN advancement of late doesn't help addressing human-style symbolic reasoning at all. All we have is a much more powerful function approximator with a drastic increased capacity (very deep networks with billions of parameters) and scalable training scheme (SGD and its variants). Such architecture works great for differentiable data, such's images/audios, but the improvement…

Are there ways that an AI practitioner would be able to tell whether a neural network is doing human-style symbolic reasoning?
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