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Market Moves Suggest a Recession Is Unavoidable

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11–20 of 121 posts

Re: Market Moves Suggest a Recession Is Unavoidable

#11

If this is true, where is the best place to invest 10k-100k USD today?

If you are in the USA and have capital gains look for an opportunity zone investment. Incredible new upside of the Tax Cut and Jobs Act of 2017.

* defer your capital gains that you owe today * pay no capital gains on any returns if you comply with terms of opportunity zone investments (10 year holdup of capital requirement) * earns a 15% discount on your original capital gains taxes owed

Re: Market Moves Suggest a Recession Is Unavoidable

#12
post #5

If this is true, where is the best place to invest 10k-100k USD today?

Into a piece of yellow metal. Edit. More background on that: In 2014, after years and years of my parents droning "think about buying a house," I finally decided to teach my parents a lesson, and show them just how bad their investment advice is. So in the end, I lost around 53 thousand dollars in total from FX, fees, lawyers, drop of property value, and my ability to sleep well at night. And in 2016, I got kicked ou…

No idea why you are downvoted. Indisputably the safest investment for several millenia running.

Re: Market Moves Suggest a Recession Is Unavoidable

#13

If this is true, where is the best place to invest 10k-100k USD today?

if you think the market will go down you should short it...

Pretty much this. Market trends change how you invest, but they certainly don't prevent you from profiting either way. The last couple months have been particularly lucrative if you're shorting the market.

Re: Market Moves Suggest a Recession Is Unavoidable

#14
post #4

Would it be wise to wait a year before buying a house? If a recession hits it might turn my areas buyers market into a fire-sale. I guess if the fed isn’t raising rates then it’s not an issue. Waiting would also allow someone to increase their down payment.

Interest rates rising will lower prices a bit (in the end, a buyer taking out a loan will likely be paying the same, because what ever drops in house prices goes to the bank in interest). I dropped my home's price (undesirable neighborhood) pretty aggressively in the last 6 months before hiring a property manager to rent it out. I would recommend just keeping your eye out for deals. Right now is off peak season (in the US) so you might find someone desperate and get a bargain.

Re: Market Moves Suggest a Recession Is Unavoidable

#15
His main justification: "Just about everyone I talk to in the capital markets, including erstwhile bulls, acknowledges that things are slowing down." And "everyone knows it is coming." And "everyone knows that inverted yield curves are the most reliable recession indicators."

He talks about home builders "getting crushed," which means they're trading at levels last seen in 2017. The large tech stock haircuts he refers to means most are at levels they traded at earlier this year.

I'm not saying he's wrong about a recession coming, but if you're looking for some real substance to justify that stance, you won't find it in this article. Just a guy copying Trump's tactic of saying "everyone knows" instead of offering evidence.

Re: Market Moves Suggest a Recession Is Unavoidable

#16

If this is true, where is the best place to invest 10k-100k USD today?

If you're investing for the long term, why not just find a spot you're comfortable with on the way down and invest money in an index fund while the market is down? A recession is the perfect time to invest, isn't it?

Re: Market Moves Suggest a Recession Is Unavoidable

#17
How can something "suggest" a recession is "unavoidable." If its a suggestion, then by definition it isn't unavoidable.

These articles are silly. You'll find them for every time the market sneezes.

October 2015, World Faces a Recession Next Year: https://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/13/citis-buiter-world-faces-rec...

June 2016, The Next Recession is Already Here: https://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/21/the-next-recession-is-alread...

There might be a recession next year, but the Fed might cut rates, Brexit might not happen, the EU might resume easing and the stock market might double in the next 5 years. Nobody knows.

Re: Market Moves Suggest a Recession Is Unavoidable

#19
post #4

Would it be wise to wait a year before buying a house? If a recession hits it might turn my areas buyers market into a fire-sale. I guess if the fed isn’t raising rates then it’s not an issue. Waiting would also allow someone to increase their down payment.

Lots of factors in play, you'd need to bet correctly that the recession will actually affect prices that way in your area.

Also, the yield curves just inverted within the last week, and the average time-to-recession from that point is 12 months. So you may want to wait longer than a year.

Or... just buy something and be done with it, as long as it fits your budget and your income is stable, it's just housing and in the long run it'll probably work out fine anyway. Timing the housing market isn't any easier than timing the stock market.

Re: Market Moves Suggest a Recession Is Unavoidable

#20
post #7

If this is true, where is the best place to invest 10k-100k USD today?

Why would you invest just before a recession? Keep your cash and invest when the market is down.

There are some indexes that go up on market volatility, as well as some "reverse" indexes
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