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Greenhouse Gas Emissions Rise Like a ‘Speeding Freight Train’ in 2018

nytimes.com

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Re: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Rise Like a ‘Speeding Freight Train’ in 2018

#11

Post by vemv »

fromthestart wrote: post #5

It's hard for me to take climate science seriously when 1. We know of the state of crisis that all other soft sciences are in (p-value abuse, publish or perish, institutional bias, replication crisis) [3] 2. We know that the earth has been substantially warmer in the past (with accompanyingly higher CO2 levels) and life thrived [2] 3. We know that we've been coming out of an ice age since long before the industrial r…

Not unreasonable, but what about the mass animal extinction we are currently undergoing?

Is that something that routinely happens? And in the precise historical moment of peak human activity?

Re: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Rise Like a ‘Speeding Freight Train’ in 2018

#12

Post by rland »

fromthestart wrote: post #5

It's hard for me to take climate science seriously when 1. We know of the state of crisis that all other soft sciences are in (p-value abuse, publish or perish, institutional bias, replication crisis) [3] 2. We know that the earth has been substantially warmer in the past (with accompanyingly higher CO2 levels) and life thrived [2] 3. We know that we've been coming out of an ice age since long before the industrial r…

I'm just a layman, not a climate scientist, but I don't think the magnitude of the warming is our big issue. The issue is how quickly it's changing. Previous warming events happened very slowly; even the quickest ones occurred over thousands or tens of thousands of years. Ours is happening a couple orders of magnitude faster.

We can look back, not at the geological record, but at the biological record. Large, fast shifts like this one cause big extinctions. The biosphere cannot react quickly without huge, unpredictable changes.

I'm sure there are conceivable benefits to a warmer earth, but we have to get from here to there without dying and that's what everyone is chiefly concerned about.

Re: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Rise Like a ‘Speeding Freight Train’ in 2018

#13

Post by merlincorey »

paulddraper wrote: post #2

Relatively ignorant observer here. I thought things were looking pretty good on this front. How does this headline square with "The U.S. Leads All Countries In Reducing Carbon Emissions" (Oct 2017)? [1] [1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2017/10/24/yes-the-u-s-...

The article states that China accounts for twice as much emissions as the United States:

> The world’s largest emitter is still China, which produces 27 percent of global carbon emissions, according to the report. The United States accounts for 15 percent of emissions, the European Union 10 percent and India 7 percent.

> China’s emissions are projected to rise 4.7 percent in 2018, the report said. The country is stimulating manufacturing to counterbalance its slowing economy, allowing more coal-based manufacturing that it had avoided in the past, Dr. Jackson said.

> United States emissions are expected to rise 2.5 percent this year after several years of declines, and despite a shift away from coal toward cleaner sources of energy. Dr. Jackson attributed part of the increase to a colder-than-normal winter in some parts of the country and a hotter summer in other parts, which inflated demand for heating and cooling.

Re: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Rise Like a ‘Speeding Freight Train’ in 2018

#14

Post by fromthestart »

vemv wrote: post #11
fromthestart wrote: post #5

It's hard for me to take climate science seriously when 1. We know of the state of crisis that all other soft sciences are in (p-value abuse, publish or perish, institutional bias, replication crisis) [3] 2. We know that the earth has been substantially warmer in the past (with accompanyingly higher CO2 levels) and life thrived [2] 3. We know that we've been coming out of an ice age since long before the industrial r…

Not unreasonable, but what about the mass animal extinction we are currently undergoing? Is that something that routinely happens? And in the precise historical moment of peak human activity?

Correlation does not equal causation. We have plenty of other ways of harming the environment that can explain mass extinctions, like contamination from pesticides, plastics, antibiotics, etc.

Not that bleaching isn't a problem, but CO2 based ocean acidification should not be conflated with climate change.

Re: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Rise Like a ‘Speeding Freight Train’ in 2018

#15

Post by rcMgD2BwE72F »

fromthestart wrote: post #5

It's hard for me to take climate science seriously when 1. We know of the state of crisis that all other soft sciences are in (p-value abuse, publish or perish, institutional bias, replication crisis) [3] 2. We know that the earth has been substantially warmer in the past (with accompanyingly higher CO2 levels) and life thrived [2] 3. We know that we've been coming out of an ice age since long before the industrial r…

1. Do you discard all sciences then?

2. Were there mammals living on Earth at these times?

3. Did temperatures rise this fast after the previous ice ages? If so, how did the most complex organisms adapt? Did they survive?

4. Is global warming taboo enough for the fossil fuel industries to look for benefits in all directions?

5. Maybe we're studying the effect of climate change on a shorter time period because the current trend is much faster than previous shifts?

Re: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Rise Like a ‘Speeding Freight Train’ in 2018

#16

Post by pixl97 »

calvinbhai wrote: post #9

I cannot take any of these reports seriously unless they are comparing emissions from each country on a per capita basis. This is an easy way to make US look like a responsible polluter compared to India and China. Its a different ball game, if you factor in the total emissions per capita over last 100 years, in which case, US emissions are probably a few multiples over China and India combined (that's my guess. I'm…

Eh, that doesn't necessarily provide fair statistics. Lets use this contrived example with made up numbers where the US has a population of 500 million and China 1 billion.

US per capita: 1000 tons of CO2 per year

China per capita: 1000 tons of CO2 per year.

Looks like China is twice as good. But if you break out population statistics and 500 million of them live in mud huts and produce almost no CO2, then the other half that have moved to US like living conditions produce US like carbon.

Re: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Rise Like a ‘Speeding Freight Train’ in 2018

#17

Post by sologoub »

merlincorey wrote: post #13
paulddraper wrote: post #2

Relatively ignorant observer here. I thought things were looking pretty good on this front. How does this headline square with "The U.S. Leads All Countries In Reducing Carbon Emissions" (Oct 2017)? [1] [1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2017/10/24/yes-the-u-s-...

The article states that China accounts for twice as much emissions as the United States: > The world’s largest emitter is still China, which produces 27 percent of global carbon emissions, according to the report. The United States accounts for 15 percent of emissions, the European Union 10 percent and India 7 percent. > China’s emissions are projected to rise 4.7 percent in 2018, the report said. The country is stim…

EU seems to be doing way better than the US on a per capita basis - 10% for 512 million people versus 15% for 325 million in US.

Re: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Rise Like a ‘Speeding Freight Train’ in 2018

#18

Post by cbkeller »

rland wrote: post #12
fromthestart wrote: post #5

It's hard for me to take climate science seriously when 1. We know of the state of crisis that all other soft sciences are in (p-value abuse, publish or perish, institutional bias, replication crisis) [3] 2. We know that the earth has been substantially warmer in the past (with accompanyingly higher CO2 levels) and life thrived [2] 3. We know that we've been coming out of an ice age since long before the industrial r…

I'm just a layman, not a climate scientist, but I don't think the magnitude of the warming is our big issue. The issue is how quickly it's changing. Previous warming events happened very slowly; even the quickest ones occurred over thousands or tens of thousands of years. Ours is happening a couple orders of magnitude faster. We can look back, not at the geological record, but at the biological record. Large, fast sh…

Coming from a geologist, you're exactly right!

Re: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Rise Like a ‘Speeding Freight Train’ in 2018

#19

Post by fromthestart »

rland wrote: post #12
fromthestart wrote: post #5

It's hard for me to take climate science seriously when 1. We know of the state of crisis that all other soft sciences are in (p-value abuse, publish or perish, institutional bias, replication crisis) [3] 2. We know that the earth has been substantially warmer in the past (with accompanyingly higher CO2 levels) and life thrived [2] 3. We know that we've been coming out of an ice age since long before the industrial r…

I'm just a layman, not a climate scientist, but I don't think the magnitude of the warming is our big issue. The issue is how quickly it's changing. Previous warming events happened very slowly; even the quickest ones occurred over thousands or tens of thousands of years. Ours is happening a couple orders of magnitude faster. We can look back, not at the geological record, but at the biological record. Large, fast sh…

>Previous warming events happened very slowly; even the quickest ones occurred over thousands or tens of thousands of years

Here's the problem - we don't actually know how quickly historic shifts have occurred, because our evidence comes from geologic and fossil records that simply do not have good resolution past 1Ma or so.

Especially consider all the doomsday runaway scenarios like the clathrate gun and melting permafrost - did these conditions not exist hundreds of millions of years ago during other shifts? If these hypotheses are true, then surely historic warming has occurred with similar rapidity.

Re: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Rise Like a ‘Speeding Freight Train’ in 2018

#20

Post by rcMgD2BwE72F »

pixl97 wrote: post #16
calvinbhai wrote: post #9

I cannot take any of these reports seriously unless they are comparing emissions from each country on a per capita basis. This is an easy way to make US look like a responsible polluter compared to India and China. Its a different ball game, if you factor in the total emissions per capita over last 100 years, in which case, US emissions are probably a few multiples over China and India combined (that's my guess. I'm…

Eh, that doesn't necessarily provide fair statistics. Lets use this contrived example with made up numbers where the US has a population of 500 million and China 1 billion. US per capita: 1000 tons of CO2 per year China per capita: 1000 tons of CO2 per year. Looks like China is twice as good. But if you break out population statistics and 500 million of them live in mud huts and produce almost no CO2, then the other…

How much of China's CO2 is emitted to produce things for the US to consume?
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