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There Is Gas Under the Tundra

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Re: There Is Gas Under the Tundra

#11

Post by doombolt »

ben_w wrote: post #7
doombolt wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oil and gas are the only reliable Russian exports. Economic pressure on Russia leads to increase of importance of oil and gas sector as other sectors plunge. This leads to more capacity, more offering. Which leads to price correction, even more offering as prices fall and have to be made for. Which in total leads to massive use of cheap gas. If there was someone committed to decrease in fossil fuel usage they will be…

What happens when those exports stop being reliable, if and when renewables get cheap enough that electrolysing hydrogen from water is still cheaper than mining methane from Siberia despite the inefficiency of the former?

Nobody knows for sure. Maybe a Syria-style (but ten times stronger) migration from Russia westwards?

It is assumed that Syrian crisis started happening when its Oil exports dipped in red, as in existing Syrian economy would consume more Oil than they were capable to extract. Worsening climate did not help of course.

Re: There Is Gas Under the Tundra

#12

Post by makomk »

_Microft wrote: post #3

... and it better stays there. Building up more capacity to extract fossil fuels is not what we should be doing right now.

In practice, the shift to renewable electricity and the focus on reducing emissions means more demand for natural gas, since gas generators produce less pollution than coal and are better at responding to changes in demand caused by variation in the renewable energy supply.

Re: There Is Gas Under the Tundra

#13

Post by eksemplar »

makomk wrote: post #12
_Microft wrote: post #3

... and it better stays there. Building up more capacity to extract fossil fuels is not what we should be doing right now.

In practice, the shift to renewable electricity and the focus on reducing emissions means more demand for natural gas, since gas generators produce less pollution than coal and are better at responding to changes in demand caused by variation in the renewable energy supply.

Is that really practical though? I mean, it makes sense financially and in terms of how we usually do transition, but we’re frankly running out of time, and maybe we need to be radical rather than practical.

I’m old, I’ve seen how we’ve ignored the warnings for the past 30 years. Worse yet, if you ask people on when sollutuons can be ready, they say 10-20 years, and we only have one decade left to stop our own destruction.

Re: There Is Gas Under the Tundra

#14

Post by credit_guy »

doombolt wrote: post #6
_Microft wrote: post #3

... and it better stays there. Building up more capacity to extract fossil fuels is not what we should be doing right now.

Oil and gas are the only reliable Russian exports. Economic pressure on Russia leads to increase of importance of oil and gas sector as other sectors plunge. This leads to more capacity, more offering. Which leads to price correction, even more offering as prices fall and have to be made for. Which in total leads to massive use of cheap gas. If there was someone committed to decrease in fossil fuel usage they will be…

> Oil and gas are the only reliable Russian exports.

Just to corroborate this, I found this interesting website [1].

"The top exports of Russia are Crude Petroleum ($75.7B), Refined Petroleum ($43.1B), Petroleum Gas ($16B), Coal Briquettes ($10.4B) and Raw Aluminium ($6.08B)"

[1] https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/rus/

Re: There Is Gas Under the Tundra

#15

Post by stuaxo »

mirimir wrote: post #5
LandR wrote: post #2

There are some beautiful photos in this article! Love the guy taking a rest in the snow.

I guess so. But all I can see are extremely fuzzy images.[0] Anyone know why I might be seeing that? 0) https://keybase.pub/mirimir/flare.png

The same thing, in Firefox on Linux.

Disabling uBlock origin didn't help, neither did disabling DuckDuckGo privacy extensions.

Re: There Is Gas Under the Tundra

#17

Post by doombolt »

credit_guy wrote: post #14
doombolt wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oil and gas are the only reliable Russian exports. Economic pressure on Russia leads to increase of importance of oil and gas sector as other sectors plunge. This leads to more capacity, more offering. Which leads to price correction, even more offering as prices fall and have to be made for. Which in total leads to massive use of cheap gas. If there was someone committed to decrease in fossil fuel usage they will be…

> Oil and gas are the only reliable Russian exports. Just to corroborate this, I found this interesting website [1]. "The top exports of Russia are Crude Petroleum ($75.7B), Refined Petroleum ($43.1B), Petroleum Gas ($16B), Coal Briquettes ($10.4B) and Raw Aluminium ($6.08B)" [1] https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/rus/

It is also an eye-opener that food is so cheap these days you can make more from selling Diamonds mined at 2-3 locations than from selling Wheat grown all over the map.

Re: There Is Gas Under the Tundra

#18

Post by trhway »

ben_w wrote: post #7
doombolt wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oil and gas are the only reliable Russian exports. Economic pressure on Russia leads to increase of importance of oil and gas sector as other sectors plunge. This leads to more capacity, more offering. Which leads to price correction, even more offering as prices fall and have to be made for. Which in total leads to massive use of cheap gas. If there was someone committed to decrease in fossil fuel usage they will be…

What happens when those exports stop being reliable, if and when renewables get cheap enough that electrolysing hydrogen from water is still cheaper than mining methane from Siberia despite the inefficiency of the former?

>What happens when those exports stop being reliable

The last time it happened - mid 198x - the USSR collapsed.

The oil price drop in 2014-2016 delivered a significant jolt to Russia causing economical crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_financial_crisis_(2014.... Among other effects, that affected new weapons systems and armed forces modernization, etc. It also lead to very unpopular pension (social security) eligibility age increase. Also https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_financial_crisis_(2014... :

"According to New World Wealth study, over 2,000 millionaires emigrated from Russia."

Re: There Is Gas Under the Tundra

#19

Post by dsfyu404ed »

zengid wrote: post #16

"ice breaker tankers" just sounds like tempting fate. Or maybe every tanker should be that sturdy /s.

It just means the hull design (and some other things) are different so it can function as its own icebreaker. If anything it's less risky than using normal tankers and constantly trying to clear a path for them.

Re: There Is Gas Under the Tundra

#20

Post by thrower123 »

eksemplar wrote: post #13
makomk wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In practice, the shift to renewable electricity and the focus on reducing emissions means more demand for natural gas, since gas generators produce less pollution than coal and are better at responding to changes in demand caused by variation in the renewable energy supply.

Is that really practical though? I mean, it makes sense financially and in terms of how we usually do transition, but we’re frankly running out of time, and maybe we need to be radical rather than practical. I’m old, I’ve seen how we’ve ignored the warnings for the past 30 years. Worse yet, if you ask people on when sollutuons can be ready, they say 10-20 years, and we only have one decade left to stop our own destru…

The radicals fucked us all over by agitating against nuke power in the 70s. Free love and climate change, man.
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