NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say • Hacker News Board

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#11

Post by ricardoreis » Tue, Nov 20, 2018, 2:30 PM UTC

dionidium wrote: post #4

chmaynard wrote: post #2

> Critics say it is bad service that is driving people away. One datapoint: I live in Rhode Island. Recently I attended a concert in Brooklyn. The obvious way to travel there was Amtrak to Penn Station and MTA (train or bus) to the final destination. However, I was warned that MTA service is unreliable. I decided to drive. Next time I probably won't go at all.

That's really silly and a sign of how overblown this story has become (in some contexts). You would have been fine . When a system like the NYC Subway gets 20% worse for everyday commuters, that's a really big deal and something those commuters are going to talk about a lot. But a NYC Subway that's 20% worse than it was 10 years ago is still a massive, complex, incredible, useful machine, no matter how much New Yorke…

A NYC Subway that's 20% worse than it was 10 years ago

By what metric?

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#12

Post by leetrout » Tue, Nov 20, 2018, 2:35 PM UTC

JPKab wrote: post #7

“The subway service and the bus service has become unreliable enough for people to stop using it. If people aren’t using it, there’s less money, and they have to keep raising fares without delivering better service.” I was a daily rider of the DC metro for 8 years. This is exactly what happened there. Reliability plummeted, then ridership, and all the while major fare increases.

I just commented to someone the other day- I loved how clean the metro was but hated the prices for sub-par services. I hate the distance based pricing.

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#13

Post by mdolon » Tue, Nov 20, 2018, 2:38 PM UTC

The article briefly mentioned competition from ride sharing services but I wonder to what extent it's made an impact.

Anecdotally, given how cheap Uber and Lyft are in Manhattan (typically $4-5 for a shared ride), I often find myself opting for that instead of dealing with the hassles of the subway system. Both are unreliable when it comes to timeliness, as ride sharing services often take longer than expected (especially Uber Pool and Lyft Line). And as painful as the subway system can sometimes be, I do appreciate the rich history and incredible performances you'll often come across in subway stations. I'm torn, to be honest.

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#14

Post by BorgHunter » Tue, Nov 20, 2018, 2:38 PM UTC

ricardoreis wrote: post #11

dionidium wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's really silly and a sign of how overblown this story has become (in some contexts). You would have been fine . When a system like the NYC Subway gets 20% worse for everyday commuters, that's a really big deal and something those commuters are going to talk about a lot. But a NYC Subway that's 20% worse than it was 10 years ago is still a massive, complex, incredible, useful machine, no matter how much New Yorke…

A NYC Subway that's 20% worse than it was 10 years ago By what metric?

On-time performance has dropped dramatically in the past ten years. In the following article, look for the graph titled, "On-time performance by line, 2007 to 2017".

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/06/28/nyregion/subw...

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#15

Post by dionidium » Tue, Nov 20, 2018, 2:40 PM UTC

ricardoreis wrote: post #11

dionidium wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's really silly and a sign of how overblown this story has become (in some contexts). You would have been fine . When a system like the NYC Subway gets 20% worse for everyday commuters, that's a really big deal and something those commuters are going to talk about a lot. But a NYC Subway that's 20% worse than it was 10 years ago is still a massive, complex, incredible, useful machine, no matter how much New Yorke…

A NYC Subway that's 20% worse than it was 10 years ago By what metric?

Delays, primarily. Overcrowding, secondarily.

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#16

Post by ricardoreis » Tue, Nov 20, 2018, 2:42 PM UTC

BorgHunter wrote: post #14

ricardoreis wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A NYC Subway that's 20% worse than it was 10 years ago By what metric?

On-time performance has dropped dramatically in the past ten years. In the following article, look for the graph titled, "On-time performance by line, 2007 to 2017". https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/06/28/nyregion/subw...

Thanks very much for the link.

But eyeballing that chart suggests an average deterioration significantly worse than 20 percent.

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#17

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Nov 20, 2018, 2:43 PM UTC

ricardoreis wrote: post #11

dionidium wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's really silly and a sign of how overblown this story has become (in some contexts). You would have been fine . When a system like the NYC Subway gets 20% worse for everyday commuters, that's a really big deal and something those commuters are going to talk about a lot. But a NYC Subway that's 20% worse than it was 10 years ago is still a massive, complex, incredible, useful machine, no matter how much New Yorke…

A NYC Subway that's 20% worse than it was 10 years ago By what metric?

[deleted]

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#18

Post by ricardoreis » Tue, Nov 20, 2018, 2:43 PM UTC

dionidium wrote: post #15

ricardoreis wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A NYC Subway that's 20% worse than it was 10 years ago By what metric?

Delays, primarily. Overcrowding, secondarily.

Numbers, please. (That's what "metric" means, btw).

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#19

Post by bunderbunder » Tue, Nov 20, 2018, 2:44 PM UTC

chmaynard wrote: post #2

> Critics say it is bad service that is driving people away. One datapoint: I live in Rhode Island. Recently I attended a concert in Brooklyn. The obvious way to travel there was Amtrak to Penn Station and MTA (train or bus) to the final destination. However, I was warned that MTA service is unreliable. I decided to drive. Next time I probably won't go at all.

So, I haven't been to New York in a while, but I'm guessing that you were poorly informed.

Usually when public transit networks start showing strain, it's during rush hours, when they're handling massive spikes in ridership. To give an example from Chicago: If you're trying to get on the train downtown at 6:00pm, you'll get on the next train, and probably get to sit in a seat. If you try to do it at 5:00pm, you stand a good chance of waiting 30 minutes for a train that you can even physically get on to. When you do, your ride will probably also take 50% longer than the 6pm ride would have. And maybe even 100% longer than a ride at 7pm would have.

You naturally get all the complaints from the rush hour riders. And yeah, if your concert were starting at 6 in the evening so that you'd have to brave rush hour traffic, then that would be a problem. But so would driving.

If, like most concerts, it was starting a bit later, you'd very likely have experienced smooth service.

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#20

Post by plants » Tue, Nov 20, 2018, 2:51 PM UTC

JPKab wrote: post #7

“The subway service and the bus service has become unreliable enough for people to stop using it. If people aren’t using it, there’s less money, and they have to keep raising fares without delivering better service.” I was a daily rider of the DC metro for 8 years. This is exactly what happened there. Reliability plummeted, then ridership, and all the while major fare increases.

If you haven't been back, I think you'd be surprised at the (weekday) reliability of the metro now. The metro is almost always terribly messed up on weekends (with single-tracking and line closings), but they make a damn good effort to get weekday commuters to work on time. I've been living in the DC area for the past two years and it seems like they have really been making the metro a priority. I have a transfer during my commute during rush hour times, and I hardly ever have to wait more than five minutes for either of my trains.