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Lyft speeds ahead with its autonomous initiatives

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Re: Lyft speeds ahead with its autonomous initiatives

#11
post #8

Bear with me here, trying to come at this from the other end. Why do Uber and Lyft have to develop their own self driving tech? If what they sell is their routing algorithm for drivers, they can simply lease self driving cars from the companies directly and run them on their network. The car companies would be happy to get a cut of the profits. What advantage would they get by developing their own tech? They have to…

Uber and Lyft have very little moat to protect them if someone else develops self-driving cars first.

They haven't succeeded in their initial goal of exterminating the existing cab companies, and that leaves them in a situation where developing self-driving technology could be a matter of life and death for them. The incumbent cab companies are much better positioned to profit from self-driving cars. They've already got all the infrastructure, expertise and staff it takes to manage fleets of vehicles. The bigger ones already have their own apps (e.g., Curb). If self-driving cars hit the general market first, basically all they have to do to run Uber and Lift out of town is buy some and factor the fact that they aren't paying cab drivers anymore into their prices.

By contrast, most of Uber and Lyft's basic business models right now are predicated on the idea of hiring humans, who in turn manage their own cars. That has deep implications: It means they have zero expertise in fleet management. They don't have any of their own garages for storing cars and handling maintenance. They do have apps, but the most valuable parts of their apps are the parts for managing humans. Incentive mechanisms designed to try and ensure that supply of rides and demand for rides remain relatively stable, for example. Their existing business operations are heavily built around recruiting humans - both riders and drivers. None of that is particularly useful in a world with self-driving cars, and the bits that are - basically just the mechanics of enabling people to hail rides and pay for them - are drastically easy to copy.

Re: Lyft speeds ahead with its autonomous initiatives

#12
post #8

Bear with me here, trying to come at this from the other end. Why do Uber and Lyft have to develop their own self driving tech? If what they sell is their routing algorithm for drivers, they can simply lease self driving cars from the companies directly and run them on their network. The car companies would be happy to get a cut of the profits. What advantage would they get by developing their own tech? They have to…

I imagine Uber+Lyft don't consider their driver routing algorithm a significant barrier to entry to the self-driving car market.

They likely expect the first company to come up with true self driving cars to start their own competitive service to Uber+Lyft. To them, it's an existential threat to not invest in their own self driving technology.

I think every self-driving car project is under the impression that the first stable and safe self driving car network is going to have no incentive to lease the technology out.

Re: Lyft speeds ahead with its autonomous initiatives

#13
post #8

Bear with me here, trying to come at this from the other end. Why do Uber and Lyft have to develop their own self driving tech? If what they sell is their routing algorithm for drivers, they can simply lease self driving cars from the companies directly and run them on their network. The car companies would be happy to get a cut of the profits. What advantage would they get by developing their own tech? They have to…

Uber and Lyft have very little moat to protect them if someone else develops self-driving cars first. They haven't succeeded in their initial goal of exterminating the existing cab companies, and that leaves them in a situation where developing self-driving technology could be a matter of life and death for them. The incumbent cab companies are much better positioned to profit from self-driving cars. They've already…

The first self-driving car deployment could be someone who buys a single car and uses Uber and Lyft as pre-made customer-finding platforms. If self-driving cars become cheaper than humans by enough of a margin for cab companies, then quick movers with capital can work with Uber or Lyft to deploy a self-driving micro-fleet of their own. It would be a great way to park your money, a much cheaper version of buying lease properties or fast food franchises.

Re: Lyft speeds ahead with its autonomous initiatives

#14
post #12
post #8

Bear with me here, trying to come at this from the other end. Why do Uber and Lyft have to develop their own self driving tech? If what they sell is their routing algorithm for drivers, they can simply lease self driving cars from the companies directly and run them on their network. The car companies would be happy to get a cut of the profits. What advantage would they get by developing their own tech? They have to…

I imagine Uber+Lyft don't consider their driver routing algorithm a significant barrier to entry to the self-driving car market. They likely expect the first company to come up with true self driving cars to start their own competitive service to Uber+Lyft. To them, it's an existential threat to not invest in their own self driving technology. I think every self-driving car project is under the impression that the fi…

Yeah, making an Uber-or-Lyft-like service is easy. Lots of people have done it. Uber and Lyft price-competed those services into irrelevance, but if another service has self-driving cars and Uber-or-Lyft don't, then they won't be able to price-compete effectively.

I think it's likely that if Uber-or-Lyft don't get a sustainable technological advantage with driverless cars, they will actually stick around and make a deal with the company that provides the driverless cars, but they will have a weak negotiating position and will have to accept a small percentage of the profit which will not justify their current valuations (especially Uber, which has a much higher valuation than Lyft).

Re: Lyft speeds ahead with its autonomous initiatives

#15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uber and Lyft have very little moat to protect them if someone else develops self-driving cars first. They haven't succeeded in their initial goal of exterminating the existing cab companies, and that leaves them in a situation where developing self-driving technology could be a matter of life and death for them. The incumbent cab companies are much better positioned to profit from self-driving cars. They've already…

The first self-driving car deployment could be someone who buys a single car and uses Uber and Lyft as pre-made customer-finding platforms. If self-driving cars become cheaper than humans by enough of a margin for cab companies, then quick movers with capital can work with Uber or Lyft to deploy a self-driving micro-fleet of their own. It would be a great way to park your money, a much cheaper version of buying lease…

Tesla has stated that this is exactly what they would allow customers to do, rent out their self driving cars when not in use to generate revenue for the customer and I assume Tesla would take a cut as well.

Re: Lyft speeds ahead with its autonomous initiatives

#16
post #8

Bear with me here, trying to come at this from the other end. Why do Uber and Lyft have to develop their own self driving tech? If what they sell is their routing algorithm for drivers, they can simply lease self driving cars from the companies directly and run them on their network. The car companies would be happy to get a cut of the profits. What advantage would they get by developing their own tech? They have to…

> What advantage would they get by developing their own tech?

Same with every company in the current climate. Develop every damn thing yourself for fear of anyone having financial power over you.

It really is tiring. Yet, I can't blame them too much. This is where I wish the government would step it. What do I care which company has the best self driving AI? Ffs, define best? It's likely the safest. So we're literally letting them compete for safety - knowing that some will be less safe than others.

There should be a government program here to share knowledge, license startups and ensure equal progression for the benefit of public safety.

I really hate that our safety is being handled by Uber of all companies. Especially since they've already killed someone.

Re: Lyft speeds ahead with its autonomous initiatives

#17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uber and Lyft have very little moat to protect them if someone else develops self-driving cars first. They haven't succeeded in their initial goal of exterminating the existing cab companies, and that leaves them in a situation where developing self-driving technology could be a matter of life and death for them. The incumbent cab companies are much better positioned to profit from self-driving cars. They've already…

The first self-driving car deployment could be someone who buys a single car and uses Uber and Lyft as pre-made customer-finding platforms. If self-driving cars become cheaper than humans by enough of a margin for cab companies, then quick movers with capital can work with Uber or Lyft to deploy a self-driving micro-fleet of their own. It would be a great way to park your money, a much cheaper version of buying lease…

But not, I think, cheaper than a cab company setting up their own fleet.

Being a bigger player, a cab company is better-positioned to take advantage of what few economies of scale exist in this space: The power to negotiate a lower per-unit cost, and the ability to operate your own garage so you don't have to pay retail prices for maintenance and repairs.

The cab company would also be the more vertically integrated option, which gives them additional opportunities to economise and pass the savings on to the customer.

Re: Lyft speeds ahead with its autonomous initiatives

#18
post #8

Bear with me here, trying to come at this from the other end. Why do Uber and Lyft have to develop their own self driving tech? If what they sell is their routing algorithm for drivers, they can simply lease self driving cars from the companies directly and run them on their network. The car companies would be happy to get a cut of the profits. What advantage would they get by developing their own tech? They have to…

From what I can tell, all of the other self-driving companies plan to launch a taxi service first. Even Tesla has plans for that, as evidenced by their "no lyft/uber self-driving" clause in their TOS for any Tesla you buy.

Re: Lyft speeds ahead with its autonomous initiatives

#20
post #8

Bear with me here, trying to come at this from the other end. Why do Uber and Lyft have to develop their own self driving tech? If what they sell is their routing algorithm for drivers, they can simply lease self driving cars from the companies directly and run them on their network. The car companies would be happy to get a cut of the profits. What advantage would they get by developing their own tech? They have to…

> What advantage would they get by developing their own tech? Same with every company in the current climate. Develop every damn thing yourself for fear of anyone having financial power over you. It really is tiring. Yet, I can't blame them too much. This is where I wish the government would step it. What do I care which company has the best self driving AI? Ffs, define best? It's likely the safest. So we're literall…

The government currently lets anyone drive until proven unsafe. Self-driving initiatives are really only adding a few "drivers" to the road. Uber acted like a drunk teenager and they are off the road now. This system works, but with occasionally horrific humane toll. It's called capitalism
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