I'm increasingly starting to wonder if the autonomous cars will get the chance to "win" before being replaced by "flying cars". There's half a dozen companies at least that are aiming for first flight in the next 2-3 years, and Uber-like services in the 2025 timeframe. Some, like Lilium have demonstrated flying prototypes. Companies like Lilium are claiming they'll be able to compete with and eventually beat Ubers cu…
Why you have (probably) already bought your last car
11–20 of 34 posts
Re: Why you have (probably) already bought your last car
#12I'm increasingly starting to wonder if the autonomous cars will get the chance to "win" before being replaced by "flying cars". There's half a dozen companies at least that are aiming for first flight in the next 2-3 years, and Uber-like services in the 2025 timeframe. Some, like Lilium have demonstrated flying prototypes. Companies like Lilium are claiming they'll be able to compete with and eventually beat Ubers cu…
Re: Why you have (probably) already bought your last car
#13One word, that I think/hope is becoming important to more people these days, "privacy" (not mentioned once in the article). Unless these things can be used without identification, I seriously hope they don't become the only, or even a common, transportation option.
With electronic license plate readers everywhere, you already lack privacy in a private vehicle. I wish there were a way one could drive anonymously yet still be held responsible for hit and runs, etc, but that doesn't exist.
Re: Why you have (probably) already bought your last car
#14So frustrating to me that otherwise smart people keep buying into this narrative, including software developers and tech people who should know better. Here's the actual status quo: after a decade of research into autonomous cars specifically (not to mention the decades of AI and systems research before that), we are barely at the point where a car can function safely with Level 2 autonomy, in good conditions. These…
The main problem with having humans take over control in situations the car can't deal with is if the switch needs to happen at speed. If you're crawling along near some accident getting input from someone directing traffic, it doesn't seem like it should be a problem to get the human's input with voice commands, or touch on a dash-mounted tablet, as to what to do next.
Re: Why you have (probably) already bought your last car
#15Re: Why you have (probably) already bought your last car
#16So frustrating to me that otherwise smart people keep buying into this narrative, including software developers and tech people who should know better. Here's the actual status quo: after a decade of research into autonomous cars specifically (not to mention the decades of AI and systems research before that), we are barely at the point where a car can function safely with Level 2 autonomy, in good conditions. These…
It's even worse. I remember seeing prototypes of autonomous cars a little bit above 20 years ago. And I don't know when that research started.
Re: Why you have (probably) already bought your last car
#17As a layman, I think this title is way off, even if the internal concepts of the piece are reasonable. We're a long way from fleets of autonomous vehicles being ubiquitous enough that I can expect a vehicle of the specs I require to be available in the same amount of time as I could start one in my driveway. Maybe this isn't fully informed, but my impression is that even an early automobile was strictly better than a…
Currently we only have a few EV cars in the West, apart from Tesla and Nissan/Renault nobody is really up to speed with it, they are all still churning out these old-fashioned ICE cars and not making a lot of money at it. Right now Ford are pulling out of cars as they cannot do so profitably, they need to sell tank sized trucks that are a tax fiddle for them to make a profit in their domestic market. The Fords, GMs, FCAs and Daimlers of this world have left it too late.
Meanwhile, in China we have plenty of EV cars being actually made and driven, not talked about and waited for. The Chinese government fully expect to take over the world when it comes to making electric cars, buses and trade vehicles. I can't see Donald Trump with his tariffs (taxes on American consumers) turning this around.
Although Ford might see making a $20K car as impossible, even with an old-fashioned 'ecoboost' engine, never mind an electric one, companies in China might be more than willing to enter the low end of the market and be able to deliver a profit. Think of how the Japanese were able to do so with economical cars two generations ago and how Korean companies have came along too. They were happy starting out with the low-end that Ford, GM and Chrysler couldn't really do.
Meanwhile, people might realise they do not need 300 miles of range and that only 30 miles range is needed for what they actually do.
The less batteries you have the less batteries are needed to carry those batteries. So a city car could have only 30 miles of range and a nice little supercapacitor to give it some 'ludicrous' grunt.
Plug it in when at home and at the shops and it will always have those thirty miles, no range anxiety needed. Electricity could even be the new 'free parking'.
These chargers are coming, soon pubs will have them in their car parks and if they don't have them then they won't be getting any wealthy customers. So these things will just appear.
If you were to strip all the 'falcon wing doors', 'alcantara trim', little lights where you don't need them, bits of carpet in the boot, pointless speakers and other nonsense that you get in one of today's cars then that 30-mile range battery can be even smaller. A light and efficient EV will be more pleasant just due to being quiet, customers won't need the silly 'extras'.
Since most people don't buy cars but have some finance hack going on there is a high likelihood that the people that buy new cars will be buying new ones in the next 1-3 years. Next time round they might decide to go electric. If by then the Chinese armada has arrived and there are 'Dacia' grade EV cars that cost $20K then why would you want to pay for anything else? Of course the older generation who watch Jeremy Clarkson and like their 'vroom-vroom' noises will stick with ICE but those folks will not be around forever. The younger generation will soon have no interest in those things much like how nobody is that interested in long playing records these days.
Buyers in the second hand market might also decide to not have some old-person's hand-me-down ICE car and want something more practical such as an affordable Chinese EV. Why would you want to buy something that costs a fortune to be serviced? Might as well get a horse! So it should be a no-brainer to get an affordable EV.
The article shows New York with no horses a century ago. There were probably lots of people still using horses in the countryside. It will be the same with the EV switchover, in big cities like London (maybe not New York) there will be just EVs but in the countryside, e.g. rural Scotland, people will have the old-fashioned cars still.
So the article is far from way off. The autonomous driving 'gig economy' nonsense isn't coming for a long time, if at all, but practical EV 'motoring' is definitely possible in a short period of time. How long did it take for the world to go from dial-up to broadband? It is that type of timescale.
Re: Why you have (probably) already bought your last car
#18So frustrating to me that otherwise smart people keep buying into this narrative, including software developers and tech people who should know better. Here's the actual status quo: after a decade of research into autonomous cars specifically (not to mention the decades of AI and systems research before that), we are barely at the point where a car can function safely with Level 2 autonomy, in good conditions. These…
If they don't broadcast it with a valid signature, just ignore them, they're not authorized to give any instructions.
> turn the road system into a closed system
You can turn it into a "closed enough" system, with every vehicle having a radio locator, and everything else being treated as an unknown obstacle... that someone could get fined for putting it on the road.
Re: Why you have (probably) already bought your last car
#19So frustrating to me that otherwise smart people keep buying into this narrative, including software developers and tech people who should know better. Here's the actual status quo: after a decade of research into autonomous cars specifically (not to mention the decades of AI and systems research before that), we are barely at the point where a car can function safely with Level 2 autonomy, in good conditions. These…
> following verbal or gestured instructions from a police officer or construction worker. If they don't broadcast it with a valid signature, just ignore them, they're not authorized to give any instructions. > turn the road system into a closed system You can turn it into a "closed enough" system, with every vehicle having a radio locator, and everything else being treated as an unknown obstacle... that someone could…
Re: Why you have (probably) already bought your last car
#20Honestly, I bought my last car a decade ago. Cars aren't that great for a lot of reasons (my stress level, my city's livability, the environment), and getting rid of the idea of car ownership was one of those huge life decisions that I made that I've never, ever regretted. I don't use car sharing services - that whole industry is toxic for the drivers, I sometimes take public transportation, and every few years, I ta…