It should be devoid of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Information_asymmetry
How to Make a Big Decision
11–20 of 97 posts
Re: How to Make a Big Decision
#12> The upshot is clear: If you find yourself mapping a “whether or not” question, looking at a simple fork in the road, you’re almost always better off turning it into a “which one” question that gives you more available paths. I like this idea.
Unfortunately that appears to be my natural inclination and now I'm facing a list of more than 50 or so "available paths". This can be equally as daunting as having no options and frankly it has led to decision paralysis. Some might then say, "well, narrow down the list to 3-5 options". Well, how does one go about doing that? Am I to perform the pre-mortem and value analysis on all 50 of these potential options? Rand…
I generally just start down my favorite path and then use the additional data to decide if I should switch paths or make that 51st path that I didn't think about when I had less data to go off of. Being flexible has generally worked in my favor.
Re: How to Make a Big Decision
#13"In July 1838, Charles Darwin, then 29, sat down to make a decision that would alter the course of his life [...] Should he get married?"
Incidentally, Kierkegaard kinda tried to answer this question 5 years later in Either/Or. A couple of related snippets:
"I see it all perfectly; there are two possible situations — one can either do this or that. My honest opinion and my friendly advice is this: do it or do not do it — you will regret both" [0]
And a more long-winded version:
"Marry, and you will regret it; don’t marry, you will also regret it; marry or don’t marry, you will regret it either way. Laugh at the world’s foolishness, you will regret it; weep over it, you will regret that too; laugh at the world’s foolishness or weep over it, you will regret both. Believe a woman, you will regret it; believe her not, you will also regret it… Hang yourself, you will regret it; do not hang yourself, and you will regret that too; hang yourself or don’t hang yourself, you’ll regret it either way; whether you hang yourself or do not hang yourself, you will regret both. This, gentlemen, is the essence of all philosophy" [1]
[0] https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/28780-i-see-it-all-perfectl...
[1]https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/7141047-marry-and-you-will-...
Re: How to Make a Big Decision
#14I came to conclusion that the smaller the obvious difference between the two options, the less the choice matters.
The actual decision can matter a lot, but if you don't know, then it, unfortunately, depends on luck.
We tend to worry about the future, so we tend to think about decisions by the way they will affect us in the future. But the truth is you can have all four options, including obviously correct decisions that lead to small or no difference in outcome, as well as very unclear decisions that lead to big difference in outcome.
I think you should just focus on the decision itself, make sure you have all the information, and if the two options come very close to each other, just make the call, regardless how big the influence of the decision on your life is going to be.
Re: How to Make a Big Decision
#15Cool article. I've been giving this a lot of thought lately.
Another exercise that I do is, for each option, I ask "What's the worst that can happen, and what will I do when it does?"
It turns out, a lot of times, the worst is not that bad, and correcting it is simple, should it arise. Often, the choice is simply not that important and each alternative is OK. This makes is much easier to make the choice.
Re: How to Make a Big Decision
#16That seems like a process of whatifevery that is going to lead to a "cling to nurse for fear of something worse" outcome the majority of the time.
I prefer Branson's approach: "Screw it, let's do it".
Re: How to Make a Big Decision
#17The Freakonomics guys did a paper on this. Basically, their conclusion was just do it, make the big change. Their experiment was based on coin flips and self-reported happiness, but basically those who made the big change after the coin told them to reported being substantially happier, and if you dive into the data, you'll see that those that went with the biggest decisions (quit a job, get married) saw a double dig…
> Basically, their conclusion was just do it, make the big change.
Either just do it, or just don't do it. Don't sit on the fence. None of life's decisions (save maybe jumping off a bridge) are anywhere near as irreversible as they seem when we're facing them, no matter what we choose, and the worst thing is to remain paralyzed and let both opportunities pass you by.
Re: How to Make a Big Decision
#18Jeff Bezos "Regret Minimization Framework" [1]
A regret minimization framework "I wanted to project myself forward to age 80 and say, 'Okay, now I'm looking back on my life. I want to have minimized the number of regrets I have,'" explains Bezos. "I knew that when I was 80 I was not going to regret having tried this. I was not going to regret trying to participate in this thing called the Internet that I thought was going to be a really big deal. I knew that if I failed I wouldn't regret that, but I knew the one thing I might regret is not ever having tried. I knew that that would haunt me every day, and so, when I thought about it that way it was an incredibly easy decision."
Re: How to Make a Big Decision
#19This is one of the best test comments ever. Its bigly.
Re: How to Make a Big Decision
#20Jeff Bezos "Regret Minimization Framework" [1] A regret minimization framework "I wanted to project myself forward to age 80 and say, 'Okay, now I'm looking back on my life. I want to have minimized the number of regrets I have,'" explains Bezos. "I knew that when I was 80 I was not going to regret having tried this. I was not going to regret trying to participate in this thing called the Internet that I thought was…
Good for him that he won't have any regrets about treating the workers in his company like shit