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Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

bloomberg.com

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Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#11

Post by toomuchtodo »

pankajdoharey wrote: post #10
chrisbrandow wrote: post #9

Seems just as likely that the correct interpretation is that exponential growth is difficult to appreciate when starting from a small base. The “inflection point” cited in the article could easily be a continuation of the exact growth rate present for the previous 10 years.

The prices have to come down too. the Electric cars are 5-6 times more expensive than the normal cars. By cheap normal cars i meant Hyundai Accent which costs $14,995, Or Toyota Yaris $16000 or Chevrolet Sonic $20K or a ford fiesta $14K.

They will come down when more people buy them. Manufacturing efficiencies aren't magic. There are tens of billions of dollars of R&D and capex that need to be amortized.

Also, while an EVs upfront costs are higher, the total cost of ownership is lower, as an EV costs about half as much (per mile) [1] as an internal combustion vehicle to operate.

[1] https://avt.inl.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/fsev/costs.pdf (Obligatory PDF warning)

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#12

Post by [deleted] »

CalChris wrote: post #3

I'm on my third EV (Leaf, S, M3). Never going back. Since the Model 3 is so well built (after some startup hickups), I can recommend it on that alone. Tesla is very vertically integrated now (they make their own seats) and so the Model 3 is profitable for Tesla although the capital investment was quite high. Also, it's fun to drive next to a Viper and throw shade.

[deleted]

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#13

Post by wmf »

pankajdoharey wrote: post #8

That day will only come if they produce a cheaper car, just like Android ecosystem with Samsung makes cheap phones. TESLA cant do it, because their per unit car profits are too high. We need a new car manufacturer that keeps its per car sale margins low and rely of volume.

Like, say, Nissan?

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#14

Post by jimmaswell »

cowmix wrote: post #7
saudioger wrote: post #5

The only thing holding back EVs are/were batteries/charging times. Aside from that they're easier to maintain and perform better — on paper they're loads more practical.

Range more than charging times. With EVs (and if you have a charger) waking up with a 'full tank' is pretty amazing... something ICE auto can never experience.

And an electric car owner won't experience being low on charge and filling up in less than one minute, unless battery swapping schemes come to fruition. Dealbreaker to me being stuck charging for hours (or even overnight if I only have 110) if the batteries are low.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#15

Post by deepnotderp »

pankajdoharey wrote: post #8

That day will only come if they produce a cheaper car, just like Android ecosystem with Samsung makes cheap phones. TESLA cant do it, because their per unit car profits are too high. We need a new car manufacturer that keeps its per car sale margins low and rely of volume.

Or GM?

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#16

Post by madengr »

CalChris wrote: post #3

I'm on my third EV (Leaf, S, M3). Never going back. Since the Model 3 is so well built (after some startup hickups), I can recommend it on that alone. Tesla is very vertically integrated now (they make their own seats) and so the Model 3 is profitable for Tesla although the capital investment was quite high. Also, it's fun to drive next to a Viper and throw shade.

Ditto. I’m driving a Leaf and will never buy an ICE car again.

In the article, I’m surprised the EVs are about the same sales as hybrids. I figured there would still be more hybrid sales.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#17

Post by xyzzyz »

pankajdoharey wrote: post #10
chrisbrandow wrote: post #9

Seems just as likely that the correct interpretation is that exponential growth is difficult to appreciate when starting from a small base. The “inflection point” cited in the article could easily be a continuation of the exact growth rate present for the previous 10 years.

The prices have to come down too. the Electric cars are 5-6 times more expensive than the normal cars. By cheap normal cars i meant Hyundai Accent which costs $14,995, Or Toyota Yaris $16000 or Chevrolet Sonic $20K or a ford fiesta $14K.

What? A normal car costs something like $30k. Electric cars don't cost $150-180k.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#18

Post by vvanders »

jimmaswell wrote: post #14
cowmix wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Range more than charging times. With EVs (and if you have a charger) waking up with a 'full tank' is pretty amazing... something ICE auto can never experience.

And an electric car owner won't experience being low on charge and filling up in less than one minute, unless battery swapping schemes come to fruition. Dealbreaker to me being stuck charging for hours (or even overnight if I only have 110) if the batteries are low.

> hours

Try 40mins, although honestly I've never needed more than 30 minutes in my 80,000 miles I've put on the car including one weekly trip that required charging on the go.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#20

Post by madengr »

pankajdoharey wrote: post #8

That day will only come if they produce a cheaper car, just like Android ecosystem with Samsung makes cheap phones. TESLA cant do it, because their per unit car profits are too high. We need a new car manufacturer that keeps its per car sale margins low and rely of volume.

It all boils down to battery cost, and from what I have seen (in presentation), the battery costs have a Moore’s law type type reduction. In the next few years, the EV cost will be below ICE.
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