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China Has Withheld Samples of a Dangerous Flu Virus

nytimes.com

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Re: China Has Withheld Samples of a Dangerous Flu Virus

#11

Post by rrggrr »

An argument can be made that China is violating the International Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention. By withholding the samples they are at least constructively stockpiling a lethal pathogen; with full knowledge this action can (and likely will) result in the loss of many lives. The appropriate response is to announce travel restrictions on all travelers originating from China, effective in 30 days. I expect that announcement will dislodge the samples quickly, assuming the present media coverage doesn't already do so.

UPDATE: The virus can (may not necessarily) have a 40% mortality rate says the article below. One would therefore expect the US will obtain samples by other means. At a minimum birds don't recognize borders.

https://www.livescience.com/63448-china-h7n9-flu-samples-pan...

Re: China Has Withheld Samples of a Dangerous Flu Virus

#12

Post by bovermyer »

azurezyq wrote: post #4

While I'm not sure why Chinese government is not sharing the virus, I really don't like the way the article is written. The entire article is about guessing the reasons and developing a conspiracy (even the relation to trade war). No response so far from the official channel of Chinese government. Also for this section: >> The Chinese government has refused to share clinical data from infected patients, according to…

The Chinese government has proven time and again that it's supremely untrustworthy. That alone gives the article some credence.

Re: China Has Withheld Samples of a Dangerous Flu Virus

#13

Post by tomkinstinch »

They may be withholding physical samples, but some sequence data appears to have been released[1(eight segments of the virus from one patient),2(sequences from the last ten years)]. Sequence data like this is helpful for genomic epidemiology—modeling how the virus evolves over time and across geographic regions, as well as for investigating the potential functional impact of mutations.

1. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/?term=Influenza+A+virus...)

2. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/?term=(%22H7N9%20subtyp...)

Re: China Has Withheld Samples of a Dangerous Flu Virus

#14

Post by some_account »

bovermyer wrote: post #12
azurezyq wrote: post #4

While I'm not sure why Chinese government is not sharing the virus, I really don't like the way the article is written. The entire article is about guessing the reasons and developing a conspiracy (even the relation to trade war). No response so far from the official channel of Chinese government. Also for this section: >> The Chinese government has refused to share clinical data from infected patients, according to…

The Chinese government has proven time and again that it's supremely untrustworthy. That alone gives the article some credence.

Unlike the US government which is completely sane and trustworthy.

Re: China Has Withheld Samples of a Dangerous Flu Virus

#15

Post by JumpCrisscross »

rrggrr wrote: post #11

An argument can be made that China is violating the International Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention. By withholding the samples they are at least constructively stockpiling a lethal pathogen; with full knowledge this action can (and likely will) result in the loss of many lives. The appropriate response is to announce travel restrictions on all travelers originating from China, effective in 30 days. I expect th…

> One would therefore expect the US will obtain samples by other means

From the article:

”At least four research institutions have relied upon a small group of H7N9 samples from cases in Taiwan and Hong Kong. (All four asked not to be identified for fear of further straining ties.)”

That said, a travel ban on travelers originating from or having recently been to China is too harsh. Mandatory quarantines (with the costs of such quarantine being the responsibility of the traveler) would be more prudent.

Re: China Has Withheld Samples of a Dangerous Flu Virus

#16

Post by JumpCrisscross »

some_account wrote: post #14
bovermyer wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Chinese government has proven time and again that it's supremely untrustworthy. That alone gives the article some credence.

Unlike the US government which is completely sane and trustworthy.

> Unlike the US government which is completely sane and trustworthy

Compared to the Chinese government, yes. Competitive governments are more transparent and less corrupt than dictatorships. If one divides the world into binary categories of “never lies” and “has ever lied,” sure, both Beijing and D.C. lie. But in frequency and magnitude, the former knocks it out of the park.

Re: China Has Withheld Samples of a Dangerous Flu Virus

#17

Post by emodendroket »

some_account wrote: post #14
bovermyer wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Chinese government has proven time and again that it's supremely untrustworthy. That alone gives the article some credence.

Unlike the US government which is completely sane and trustworthy.

I don't really see how that makes the article more or less likely to be true.

Re: China Has Withheld Samples of a Dangerous Flu Virus

#18

Post by emodendroket »

azurezyq wrote: post #4

While I'm not sure why Chinese government is not sharing the virus, I really don't like the way the article is written. The entire article is about guessing the reasons and developing a conspiracy (even the relation to trade war). No response so far from the official channel of Chinese government. Also for this section: >> The Chinese government has refused to share clinical data from infected patients, according to…

I don't see what's conspiratorial when it identifies several recent examples of governments doing exactly what the scientists they've interviewed speculate is happening here. If we followed your standard, the Chinese government would be able to get away with anything without scrutiny indefinitely simply by refusing to respond to inquiries.

Re: China Has Withheld Samples of a Dangerous Flu Virus

#19

Post by emodendroket »

defnotarobot wrote: post #5
siruncledrew wrote: post #2

Health should be separate from commerce. It's messed up to refuse to exchange scientific information that could save a lot of lives to get more bargaining power, but it's also messed up if some entity takes that information and internationally patents a vaccine so they could sell it for ungodly high prices.

Does the timing even make sense for attributing the delay to trade tensions? If theyve delayed for more than a year, those tensions were not at their present level a year ago.

The article says that scientists fear that trade tensions will worsen the problem, not that the problem sprang up out of the ether a couple of months ago.

Re: China Has Withheld Samples of a Dangerous Flu Virus

#20

Post by some_account »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #16
some_account wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unlike the US government which is completely sane and trustworthy.

> Unlike the US government which is completely sane and trustworthy Compared to the Chinese government, yes. Competitive governments are more transparent and less corrupt than dictatorships. If one divides the world into binary categories of “never lies” and “has ever lied,” sure, both Beijing and D.C. lie. But in frequency and magnitude, the former knocks it out of the park.

It's not about lying. It's about using weapons of mass destruction. Only one country did this. Twice.

It was not China. You guys are just used to the devil you know, and scared of the devil you don't know. I am also in a way. But worrying about China having a virus? What do you think the US have?

Both China and US will blame any virus on someone else if it comes out to play.

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