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The Decline and Fall of the American Empire

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Re: The Decline and Fall of the American Empire

#11
If you ask me, the fall of America from the lone 'superpower' to a 'great power' is all but assured as long as the structural racial inequality in this county persists.

Let's take a look at education for an example: USA ranks pretty low on global education rankings despite the fact that we have some of the best schools in the world across all levels, its hard to think why that may be the case but when you consider the inequality in school systems due to property tax law and de facto segregation it makes a lot more sense.

Look at the criminal justice system: we have over 1 million prime aged men who are basically frozen out of achieving economic prosperity and contributing to this countries success because of bad policing and disproportionate enforcement of law.

Look at healthcare, there is a huge gap (although closing) of life expectancy between races.

India and China are not utopias by any means, but they have 1B+ people: these countries are growing larger and larger in influence and will create a middle class that contains hundreds of millions of people. The US is getting more and more in-equal and at a certain point we will reach an inflection point where we are too damn lopsided for our own good. People want to talk about lower productivity and lower wages, when you have 1.5 missing men from the workforce what do you expect?[0]

0: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/04/20/upshot/missin...

Re: The Decline and Fall of the American Empire

#14

[deleted]

Unprecedented? It isn't unprecedented at all. It is entirely pedestrian. Add that it was substantially caused by a) a massive burst of government spending, b) foreign buyers front-loading delivery to beat out pending trade wars. It is going to get ugly from here.

The American economy is pretty much at 100% right now, as any chart could tell you has been the result of almost 10 years of growth since the financial crisis. Which is why it is shocking and startling that it is coupled with extraordinary deficits approaching a trillion dollars. This is the time when the government is supposed to be eliminating deficits, not blowing them up.

The US debt is simply grotesquely unsustainable, and when even the anti-deficit right has ceded the fight...bad times are ahead.

So yes, the US economy is a "terror" movie of sorts. It is so profoundly irrational that it has some serious jump scares coming up.

As an aside - Trump is boasting about a steel maker making record profits. Ignore that it cost $12B in taxpayer money to farmers in a single year, and will cost billions more, and that it dramatically increased the prices for US consumers and threatened a wide swath of manufacturers...at least US Steel is making money, right?

Re: The Decline and Fall of the American Empire

#17
post #11

If you ask me, the fall of America from the lone 'superpower' to a 'great power' is all but assured as long as the structural racial inequality in this county persists. Let's take a look at education for an example: USA ranks pretty low on global education rankings despite the fact that we have some of the best schools in the world across all levels, its hard to think why that may be the case but when you consider th…

Genetic IQ is hard to change

Re: The Decline and Fall of the American Empire

#19
post #11

If you ask me, the fall of America from the lone 'superpower' to a 'great power' is all but assured as long as the structural racial inequality in this county persists. Let's take a look at education for an example: USA ranks pretty low on global education rankings despite the fact that we have some of the best schools in the world across all levels, its hard to think why that may be the case but when you consider th…

Can you name a time in America's history when there wasn't segregation and inequality?

Re: The Decline and Fall of the American Empire

#20
The most important factor in this analysis doesn't get called out by name: healthcare costs. When Cowen mentions entitlement growth forcing spending reduction and tax increases, healthcare is both the most certain and the biggest culprit by a wide margin.

If you were going to do one thing to extend American prosperity, it would be disruptive structural improvements to our healthcare system. That's structural reform, not new biotech (except as allows you to disintermediate care). The fact that our total expenditure is so high relative to other countries with similar quality of care is evidence that the economic models, not the technology available, are to blame.

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