Live data from Hacker News

Why the Web Won't Be Nirvana (1995)

newsweek.com

11–20 of 65 posts

Re: Why the Web Won't Be Nirvana (1995)

#11
I feel like this phrase rings somewhat true, even though he was off on many other things: " When most everyone shouts, few listen".

It's quite hard to know who to listen to, and who is telling something objectively true in this environment, since everyone's voice has the same weight. And there are too many of them to sift through, so many probably end up listening to people who pander to them.

Re: Why the Web Won't Be Nirvana (1995)

#12
post #6

Fascinating how the analysis gets wrong what becomes possible or doesn't (online shopping,...), but hits the nail on the head concerning the psychological and social aspects. > The Usenet, a worldwide bulletin board, allows anyone to post messages across the nation. Your word gets out, leapfrogging editors and publishers. Every voice can be heard cheaply and instantly. The result? Every voice is heard. The cacophony…

Any predictions that pertains to the technological aspect of our lives is utterly futile.

Imagine you are in the mid 90' and you say to someone that in the next decade we will have a camera, a video camera, a radio, a music and video player, a voice recorder and much more in just one pocket. Saying it like this make it look insane.

On the other hand psychological and social aspects are linked to our brains that didn't change much in the course of the human recorded history.

Re: Why the Web Won't Be Nirvana (1995)

#13
post #6

Fascinating how the analysis gets wrong what becomes possible or doesn't (online shopping,...), but hits the nail on the head concerning the psychological and social aspects. > The Usenet, a worldwide bulletin board, allows anyone to post messages across the nation. Your word gets out, leapfrogging editors and publishers. Every voice can be heard cheaply and instantly. The result? Every voice is heard. The cacophony…

He couldn't imagine the vast technical improvements that solved all immediate, practical challenges he faced: sending money online, comfortable, ubiquitous devices with unlimited connectivity, etc.

He clearly saw the wider limits of technology in relation to society. Liquid and online democracy has failed, we are in an age of autocrats that have weaponized online propaganda and misinformation to directly reach their voters. The freedom of the press increased online but it's quality dropped markedly, the cacophony effect is real. Alienation and engineering addiction are the name of the game for tech giants and their bottom line. Online self teaching is great for adults, but a very poor substitute and at most a complement to competent teachers in schools.

Re: Why the Web Won't Be Nirvana (1995)

#14
post #12
post #6

Fascinating how the analysis gets wrong what becomes possible or doesn't (online shopping,...), but hits the nail on the head concerning the psychological and social aspects. > The Usenet, a worldwide bulletin board, allows anyone to post messages across the nation. Your word gets out, leapfrogging editors and publishers. Every voice can be heard cheaply and instantly. The result? Every voice is heard. The cacophony…

Any predictions that pertains to the technological aspect of our lives is utterly futile. Imagine you are in the mid 90' and you say to someone that in the next decade we will have a camera, a video camera, a radio, a music and video player, a voice recorder and much more in just one pocket. Saying it like this make it look insane. On the other hand psychological and social aspects are linked to our brains that didn'…

In the 90s I'd have readily believed that. My only objection would be that it might cost too much. It turns out smartphones became very cheap and ubiquitous.

Re: Why the Web Won't Be Nirvana (1995)

#15

"Try reading a book on disc. At best, it's an unpleasant chore: the myopic glow of a clunky computer replaces the friendly pages of a book. And you can't tote that laptop to the beach. Yet Nicholas Negroponte, director of the MIT Media Lab, predicts that we'll soon buy books and newspapers straight over the Intenet. Uh, sure." Beautiful example of article where the author was skeptical based on the wild west of the c…

For what it's worth, I still prefer reading on paper. Buying ebooks is cheaper, though (because you need the device you use to read them for other reasons), and the logistics of storing such books are much simpler

Re: Why the Web Won't Be Nirvana (1995)

#16

"Try reading a book on disc. At best, it's an unpleasant chore: the myopic glow of a clunky computer replaces the friendly pages of a book. And you can't tote that laptop to the beach. Yet Nicholas Negroponte, director of the MIT Media Lab, predicts that we'll soon buy books and newspapers straight over the Intenet. Uh, sure." Beautiful example of article where the author was skeptical based on the wild west of the c…

VR would be my bet. Every time is exit VR I feel like my monitor is limiting.

It requires quite a lot of work though, and unlike the web, it probably can’t be done by one person in a basement. Which I think is important to it’s impact, because google probably wouldn’t have existed if it couldn’t have started small and gradually build its way up.

Re: Why the Web Won't Be Nirvana (1995)

#17
post #7

"Try reading a book on disc. At best, it's an unpleasant chore: the myopic glow of a clunky computer replaces the friendly pages of a book. And you can't tote that laptop to the beach. Yet Nicholas Negroponte, director of the MIT Media Lab, predicts that we'll soon buy books and newspapers straight over the Intenet. Uh, sure." Beautiful example of article where the author was skeptical based on the wild west of the c…

Blockchain and cryptocurrency comes to mind - especially given HN’s frequent dismissals and distaste of the two.

I see a lot of people making this exact mistake regarding blockchain:

>So how come my local mall does more business in an afternoon than the entire Internet handles in a month?

IOW, “It hasn’t displaced some other market already, so it never will.” It’s only a few steps away from “it has the volatility associated with being a small market, so it’s inherently flawed”.

With that said, I’m skeptical about whether it will find any large scale use myself, but it’s unfair to criticize it for the above reason.

Re: Why the Web Won't Be Nirvana (1995)

#18

The main thing that he's right about is that it's a mess. There's so much noice and little authority. When I was a kid in the 90s news and information was curated. If you read an opinion in the paper it was some guy who'd been writing for a long time, who'd done the background reading, and who normally presented things in a balanced way, whatever his leaning was. Nowadays you can find just about any extreme view, bad…

This has been on my mind quite often when I use reddit. I grew up on phpBB style forums where every user was immediately identifiable, through avatar, signature etc. And to a lesser degree I find myself developing a kind of 'image' of various HN posters.

On reddit this somehow doesn't happen. Every comment stands on its own and half the time what looks like a threaded conversation is various different users replying to each other.

I think something very important is lost there. Much as I'd like to believe so, I think the way my brain works is that no comment stands on its own and communication is heavily mediated by the knowledge and reputation of the other in relation to myself. Without that, so much that is valuable in the exchange of information, whether facts or opionion, or nuance, is lost.

Re: Why the Web Won't Be Nirvana (1995)

#19
I read Stoll's book Silicon Snake Oil back then and thought it a bit short sighted too. It's amazing how much the Internet experience has changed in 20 years - and not all of it for the better.

Also, the fact that there's a typo directly above the phrase "Lacking editors, reviewers or critics" made me chuckle.

Re: Why the Web Won't Be Nirvana (1995)

#20

This is so hilariously, specifically wrong, you'd think someone wrote it now and travelled back in time for giggles. Great find! And I'm amazed they still have the article online, the only one by Clifford Stoll, funnily enough. Still, a good lesson: It remains too easy to miss the forest for the trees. We never wanted salesmen or paper, what we actually wanted were products and information. In other words, it's easy…

Look back at Hacker News in twenty years. You'll see whole threads full of comments that are so specifically wrong it looks like a parody :)
Post reply on HN